Week 14 Recap

The model had a bounce back performance in Week 14. It identified Darius Slayton, who was the second highest scoring WR of the week (behind A.J. Brown), and did reasonably well overall with 8 of 13 players beating their projections. It also identified four of the top 15 PPR WRs on the week.

In other news, I am unfortunately forced to report that we have a new REDACTED. Mike Williams, the former REDACTED, scored a touchdown this week. This means his title is forfeit and someone else will have to take up the mantle. Like the Highlander, there can be only one. For anyone who has been following the model this season, the choice is obvious. Odell Beckham Jr., you’ve been REDACTED.

 

Here are the full results for Week 14:

Name TM Projection Week 14 Actual
Leonard Fournette JAX 13.5 9.3
REDACTED CLE 12.4 5.9
Mike Evans TB 11.2 13.1
Darius Slayton NYG 11.2 32.4
D.K. Metcalf SEA 10.5 13.8
Christian Kirk ARI 9.7 16.9
Amari Cooper DAL 9.5 20.3
Taylor Gabriel CHI 9.3 OUT
Kelvin Harmon WAS 9.2 4
Terry McLaurin WAS 9.2 15.7
Hunter Henry LAC 8.7 11.9
Zach Pascal IND 8.7 18.4
Auden Tate CIN 8.7 2.6
Jamison Crowder NYJ 8.6 6
Nelson Agholor PHI 8.3 OUT

 

 

Week 15

The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.

The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.48 (down 7 points from 0.55 in Week 13, and down 13 points the past two. Take note! Predictions become harder as the end of the season approaches).

Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.

In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.

 

KEY

* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game over the past three games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.

Teams on BYE this Week are: NONE

 

Name TM Projection Actual Difference DK Salary
Stefon Diggs MIN 12.4 10.8 -1.6 7300
Tyreek Hill KC 12.2 11.3 -0.9 7500
Courtland Sutton DEN 12.1 11.8 -0.3 5900
Christian Kirk ARI 12.1 10.9 -1.2 5500
Terry McLaurin WAS 12.1 10.2 -1.8 5300
REDACTED CLE 11 10.7 -0.3 6400
Diontae Johnson NA 10.4 8.8 -1.7 NA
Sterling Shepard NYG 9.6 8.8 -0.8 5400
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 9.4 8.3 -1.1 4300
Golden Tate NYG 8.9 7.2 -1.7 5900
John Brown NA 8.8 7.7 -1.1 NA
Jakobi Meyers NE 8.6 7.8 -0.8 3300
Mark Andrews NA 8.5 7.6 -0.9 NA
Chris Conley JAX 8.4 6.8 -1.7 3600
Kelvin Harmon WAS 8.2 6.5 -1.7 3500
Alex Erickson CIN 8.1 6.6 -1.5 3500
Curtis Samuel CAR 8.1 7.6 -0.5 4400

 

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Stefon Diggs is good, and seeing him on the list is rare. Take advantage.
  • Tyreek Hill is a garbage human and you can win without rostering him.
  • Christian Kirk is back and so is Terry “F1” McLaurin. This is despite both coming off respectable weeks.
  • Mark Andrews was back at practice Tuesday and barely missed on a couple big play balls the past couple week. If he is healthy he is a sharp bet to score Thursday night.