Week 16 Recap

Week 16 saw two solid hits with Steven Sims and Dionte Johnson. Beyond that there were serviceable performances from Landry and REDACTED (who is now off the list and no longer Redacted), and John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald also scored.

 

Here are the full results.

 

Name TM Projection PPR Actual
Jarvis Landry CLE 11.6 14.4
Danny Amendola DET 11.3 4.1
Diontae Johnson PIT 11 22.1
Christian Kirk ARI 10.9 0.9
Steven Sims WAS 10.9 25.3
T.J. Hockenson DET 10.8 IR
REDACTED CLE 10.1 14.4
Jack Doyle IND 10 3.7
John Brown BUF 9.7 12.6
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 9.5 14.8
T.Y. Hilton IND 9.4 5.6

 

 

Week 17

The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.

The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.49 (identical to Week 16)

Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.

In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.

 

KEY

* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game over the past three games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.

 

Teams on BYE this Week are: NONE

 

Name TM Projection Actual Difference DK Salary
Jamison Crowder NYJ 11.9 11.4 -0.4 5100
Amari Cooper DAL 11.7 11.5 -0.2 6500
Danny Amendola DET 10.6 9.2 -1.3 4500
D.J. Chark JAX 10.3 9 -1.3 NA
Golden Tate NYG 10.2 9.9 -0.3 5100
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 10.1 9.7 -0.5 4500
Tyler Lockett SEA 9.7 9.1 -0.6 NA
Deebo Samuel SF 9.1 8.9 -0.2 NA
Austin Hooper ATL 9 8.5 -0.6 5800
John Ross CIN 8.8 7.9 -1 4500
Christian Kirk ARI 8.8 7.3 -1.5 4700
Jack Doyle IND 8.1 8 -0.1 4100
Dede Westbrook JAX 8.1 7.8 -0.3 4200
DaeSean Hamilton DEN 8.1 7.7 -0.5 3800

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • After an abysmal performance when it counted most against the Eagles, Amari Cooper chirped at his coaches about too few Go routes. Dallas still has a shot at the division title and the playoffs (25 percent according to 538) so I’d expect Kellen Moore to pull out all the stops and give Amari what he asked for: more deep shots.
  • Tyler Lockett and Debo Samuel are interesting plays this week. They’re facing one another, so their opportunity should be correlated. If you expect points in this game, running both out there in a few lineups seems like a sharp play.
  • Like John Brown last week, John Ross is a quintessential Buy Low player. The Bengals have been going for it on 4th down with good frequency lately, and Dalton has the highest yards per attempt in the league on those throws (15.75). Despite playing just 12 games, Dalton has as many dropbacks on 4th down as Lamar Jackson (13, tied for 6th in the league). Those extra downs could mean a bonanza for Ross.