Week 4 Recap
Week 4 saw excellent returns for the model. It identified what ultimately became 7 of the top 20 scoring WRs on the week, and 3 of the top 5. Of the players on the list that weren’t on a Bye or inactive, 11 of 15 (73%) beat their projection.
Here are the full results:
|Name||DK Salary||Projection||PPR Points|
The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.
The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.55 (down 0.03 points from a season to date high of 0.58 last week).
Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.
In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.
* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game through the first 2 games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.
- Be sure to look back at Week 4 buy lows that had a bye. They are still viable plays, though the fact that players like Kittle and Crowder didn’t make the buy low this week shows that much of the buy low signal comes from the opportunity they received week 1, which has now aged out of the model.
- Marquise Brown dominates the Ravens in opportunity. He’s seen 36 percent of the team’s air yards and 24 percent of the targets. His aDOT is a very healthy 14.9, and when he and Lamar Jackson are on the same page they’re perhaps the NFL’s most dangerous downfield duo. Finally underperforming his opportunity despite having 2 TDs on the year, Brown may be low-owned as the public starts to fade Jackson and the Ravens as a flash in the pan. Don’t make that mistake; Jackson has good deep ball accuracy and is on a team that is encouraging him to attempt those throws.
- Both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs make the list – but Diggs just barely. He turned in a solid performance week 4. Meanwhile Thielen complained about his lack of opportunities through the media, and got a response from his QB Kirk Cousins. I’d expect Cousins to force a few deeper passes his way this week as the Vikings offense attempts to get on track. Cousins isn’t a great QB, but he’s good enough to feed Thielen to a WR1 week.
- DeAndre Hopkins makes the list for the first time I can recall. He’s not much of a buy-low — his salary is $7800 — but a rebound from last week’s 9.1 PPR point performance seems likely.