Week 4 Recap

Week 4 saw excellent returns for the model. It identified what ultimately became 7 of the top 20 scoring WRs on the week, and 3 of the top 5. Of the players on the list that weren’t on a Bye or inactive, 11 of 15 (73%) beat their projection.

Here are the full results:

 

Name DK Salary Projection PPR Points
Allen Robinson 5600 12.9 14.7
Jamison Crowder BYE 12.9 BYE
Zach Ertz 6200 12.2 13.5
Davante Adams 7500 11.7 28
George Kittle BYE 11.5 BYE
Robert Woods 6100 10.9 29.4
Mack Hollins 3500 10.5 2.3
Jarvis Landry 5100 10.1 24.7
Will Fuller 4500 9.8 5.3
Robby Anderson BYE 9.6 BYE
Auden Tate 3200 8.8 9
Cody Latimer 3600 8.6 0
Stefon Diggs 5500 8.6 17.8
Dede Westbrook 5500 8.6 11.6
A.J. Brown 3700 8.5 24.4
DeVante Parker 4100 8.4 17
Bennie Fowler 3500 8.3 1.3
Damiere Byrd 3300 8.2 INACTIVE
Tarik Cohen 4600 8 9.8

 

Week 5

The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.

The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.55 (down 0.03 points from a season to date high of 0.58 last week).

 Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.

 In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.

 

KEY

* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.

* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game through the first 2 games.

* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.

 

Name Team Projection Actual Difference DK Salary
Michael Gallup DAL 13.4 12.8 -0.6 5000
Zach Ertz PHI 13.2 13 -0.2 6000
Curtis Samuel CAR 12.6 12.2 -0.4 4500
Marquise Brown BAL 12.4 9.9 -2.5 5700
Adam Thielen MIN 12 9.9 -2.2 6700
Stefon Diggs MIN 11.6 11.4 -0.2 6200
Sammy Watkins KC 11.5 10.2 -1.2 NA
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 11 10.3 -0.8 7800
Preston Williams NA 11 9.9 -1.1 BYE
Robby Anderson NYJ 10.1 8.1 -2 4500
Josh Gordon NE 9.9 8.6 -1.3 6100
Jamison Crowder NYJ 9.4 6.2 -3.2 4300
Will Fuller HOU 9.4 7.8 -1.6 4500
D.K. Metcalf SEA 9.3 8.5 -0.9 NA
Auden Tate CIN 8.9 8.5 -0.5 3500
Delanie Walker TEN 8.7 7.6 -1.2 3900
Dede Westbrook JAX 8.6 7.5 -1.1 5300
Mack Hollins PHI 8.2 7.5 -0.7 3700

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Be sure to look back at Week 4 buy lows that had a bye. They are still viable plays, though the fact that players like Kittle and Crowder didn’t make the buy low this week shows that much of the buy low signal comes from the opportunity they received week 1, which has now aged out of the model.
  • Marquise Brown dominates the Ravens in opportunity. He’s seen 36 percent of the team’s air yards and 24 percent of the targets. His aDOT is a very healthy 14.9, and when he and Lamar Jackson are on the same page they’re perhaps the NFL’s most dangerous downfield duo. Finally underperforming his opportunity despite having 2 TDs on the year, Brown may be low-owned as the public starts to fade Jackson and the Ravens as a flash in the pan. Don’t make that mistake; Jackson has good deep ball accuracy and is on a team that is encouraging him to attempt those throws. 
  • Both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs make the list – but Diggs just barely. He turned in a solid performance week 4. Meanwhile Thielen complained about his lack of opportunities through the media, and got a response from his QB Kirk Cousins. I’d expect Cousins to force a few deeper passes his way this week as the Vikings offense attempts to get on track. Cousins isn’t a great QB, but he’s good enough to feed Thielen to a WR1 week.
  • DeAndre Hopkins makes the list for the first time I can recall. He’s not much of a buy-low — his salary is $7800 — but a rebound from last week’s 9.1 PPR point performance seems likely.