CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 4 – Friday

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. For more tournament content, check out our projections, and Friday’s live show, Establish The Show: The College Years, with Alex Hardin and Sean Newsham.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

Brennan Armstrong (NCST – DK $9,200, FD $11,000) – After spending five years at UVA, Brennan Armstrong returns to face his former team in this Friday night showdown. While the new N.C. State offense under Robert Anae has been a work in progress so far, we have limited options on this slate and Armstrong still has a strong rushing component to his game. Virginia’s defense has been far worse than expected so far this season (we had them in the upper third in terms of overall defensive efficiency at the start of the season and they are now down below FBS average), and given that so much of the offensive production will funnel through Armstrong, we view him as the best quarterback on the slate in terms of raw projection. GPP recommendation: Stack with 0 to 2 pass catchers.

Taylen Green (BSU – DK $6,800, FD $8,500) – While his game logs look a bit ugly, it’s a situation where it’s “always been something” and he can’t just have a clean, full game. In the opener, they got the doors blown off by an elite Washington team, so he did not get full run. In the second game, he suffered some cramps and missed a bunch of time in an ugly game versus UCF. Last week against North Dakota, they were up comfortably and he lost two drives at the end of the game. San Diego State is not the easiest place to play a road game, but this team is nowhere close to where it was defensively over the last few years. Green has a lot of volatility but is someone we have interest in, as he is likely running a bit under expectation so far this season (especially in terms of rushing production). GPP recommendation: Stack with 0 to 2 pass catchers.

Hudson Card (PUR – DK $6,300, FD $8,700) – Especially if we’re jamming in an expensive Armstrong, we need some cost savings at quarterback on this four-gamer. Card has been decent so far this year, however, he has not flashed much upside and is in strong consideration more through a process of elimination than a reflection of actual production. Chevan Cordeiro for San Jose State has a miserable matchup versus Air Force, Tanner Mordecai of Wisconsin is very expensive, and Air Force signal-caller Zac Larrier often just hands the ball off all game. A few positives for Card are that he is playing at home and both teams in this game are top 40 in plays per minute. In addition, we have seen Wisconsin give up production through the air more so than on the ground (throw-happy Georgia Southern put up 383 passing yards versus them last week). GPP recommendation: Stack with 1 to 3 pass catchers.

RUNNING BACK