There is a time and place for individual player analysis throughout the offseason, but I genuinely believe it should take a back seat in mock drafts since a majority of the league’s decision-makers typically forego any studious methods for hand-shaking, hearsay, and archaic jargon — ”We’re not selling jeans here,” Billy Beane once reminded a room full of MLB scouts.
The following is my first attempt at connecting the dots in the first round. My final mock draft for grading (I’m single, ladies) will be available the night before Round 1.
1. Titans – Miami QB Cam Ward
Tennessee spent the offseason revamping their pass protection with RG Kevin Zeitler and LT Dan Moore, shifting 2024 No. 7 overall pick JC Latham back to his collegiate position at RT. Expect the team to complement Ward with another receiving weapon on Day 2.
Could be: Literally no one else
2. Browns – Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter
Nearly removed from the dark cloud of Deshaun Watson‘s presence, Cleveland is yearning for a clean slate on offense. Rostering the NFL’s Shohei Ohtani is a good start.
Could be: Penn State EDGE Abdul Carter, Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
3. Giants – Penn State EDGE Abdul Carter
With either Travis Hunter or Carter on the board, GM Joe Schoen can’t possibly screw this up. HC Brian Daboll additionally had dinner with Carter following Adam Schefter‘s most recent report that Hunter is “the more likely pick at No. 2”.
Could be: Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter
4. Patriots – LSU OT Will Campbell
New England prioritized DT Milton Williams ($63 million guaranteed), CB Carlton Davis ($34.5 million), EDGE Harold Landry ($26 million), and LB Robert Spillane ($20.6 million) in free agency despite being bulldozed for the league’s eighth-highest pressure rate (23.7%). The organization reportedly believes Campbell can play OT regardless of his underwhelming 33-inch arm length (21st percentile).
Could be: Penn State EDGE Abdul Carter, Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter, Missouri OT Armand Membou
5. Jaguars – Michigan DT Mason Graham
Graham slides seamlessly between pass rushers Travon Walker (team-high 10.5 sacks) and Joshua Hines-Allen (eight) after Jacksonville generated the league’s lowest pressure rate (14.7%).
Could be: LSU OT Will Campbell
6. Raiders – Georgia EDGE Jalon Walker
It’s unclear whether it was HC Pete Carroll‘s or Seahawks GM John Schneider‘s preference to nab running backs early while the two overlapped in Seattle — an approach that would lead to Ashton Jeanty being drafted here if Carroll’s — or what direction first-year GM John Spytek is leaning. What is clear is that this selection is ripe for long shots.
Could be: Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty, Michigan CB Will Johnson
7. Jets – Texas OT Kelvin Banks Jr.
Similar to Dan Campbell‘s and Ben Johnson‘s approach in building Detroit’s offense from the inside-out, disciples Aaron Glenn and OC Tanner Engstrand are presumably on the prowl for their anchor OT. A former five-star recruit, 21-year-old Banks flashed the largest wingspan (84 3/8 inches) of any OT in this class.
Could be: Missouri OT Armand Membou, Penn State TE Tyler Warren
8. Panthers – Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams
Carolina is logically hoping Jalon Walker falls here. If not, everything’s on the table.
Could be: Georgia EDGE Jalon Walker, Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan, Penn State TE Tyler Warren
9. Saints – Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart
34-year-old Derek Carr is suddenly “dealing with a shoulder injury that threatens his availability for the season” and, even if healthy in December, can be shed in 2026 to save $9.6 million against the cap. The only hang-up here is New Orleans’ dire roster and cap space (32nd), potentially nudging HC Kellen Moore to begin his regime with the best player available and, eventually, Texas phenom Arch Manning in Year 2. Dart is the pick over Shedeur Sanders since no one credible in the organization attended the latter’s Pro Day.
Could be: Best player available with no hope in sight
10. Bears – Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty
HC Ben Johnson could opt to replace LT Braxton Jones with this selection and rebuild Chicago’s offensive line in a matter of months. If Jeanty is on the board, however, that addition will be far too tantalizing to ignore.
Could be: Missouri OT Armand Membou, Texas OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Penn State TE Tyler Warren, North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton
11. 49ers – Michigan CB Will Johnson
San Francisco’s exodus on defense included CBs Charvarius Ward, Isaac Yiadom, Nick McCloud, and Rock-Ya Sin.
Could be: Missouri OT Armand Membou, Texas OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams
12. Cowboys – Texas WR Matthew Golden
Dallas EVP Stephen Jones acknowledged the team’s search for an “explosive” WR2 following the loss of Brandin Cooks to New Orleans. Golden’s blazing 4.29 forty time (for an in-state program, nonetheless) fits that description.
Could be: Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan, Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams, Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart
13. Dolphins – Missouri OT Armand Membou
LT Terron Armstead‘s retirement forces the issue for an offense that plummeted to 32nd in EPA/play in six games without Tua Tagovailoa.
Could be: Texas OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams, Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart, Texas WR Matthew Golden, Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
14. Colts – Penn State TE Tyler Warren
Indianapolis was reportedly targeting Brock Bowers in last year’s draft before the Raiders sniped him at No. 13 overall. Re-signing Mo Alie-Cox is a moot point for his 61.8% and 66.5% block rates under HC Shane Steichen.
Could be: Michigan TE Colston Loveland, North Dakota State iOL Grey Zabel
15. Falcons – Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart
Atlanta was heavily linked to now-Vikings EDGE Dallas Turner and Colts pass rusher Laiatu Latu during last year’s process before adding Michael Penix Jr. and proceeding to finish 25th in pressure rate (20%) with 31 sacks (31st); “I think you can’t have enough edge,” HC Raheem Morris said during the NFL’s league meetings. Stewart’s ludicrous 9.99 Relative Athletic Score is the highest at his position since former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker‘s in 2022.
Could be: Penn State TE Tyler Warren, Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams
16. Cardinals – Texas A&M EDGE Nic Scourton
58.8% of Arizona’s 30 pre-draft visits were players on the defensive line, including all three of the Aggies’ primary pass rushers. A 19-year-old team captain who led the Big Ten in pressures and sacks in his final year at Purdue, Scourton ultimately transferred and soaked up double teams (across from teammate Shemar Stewart) in the SEC.
Could be: Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell, Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart, Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka, Texas OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Oregon DT Derrick Harmon, Michigan DT Kenneth Grant, Missouri WR Luther Burden III
17. Bengals – Oregon DT Derrick Harmon
Run-stuffing DTs B.J. Hill and T.J. Slaton do not offer the same juice up the gut as Harmon, who registered PFF’s highest pass-rush grade among his class on the interior.
Could be: Michigan DT Kenneth Grant, Michigan CB Will Johnson, Texas CB Jahdae Barron
18. Seahawks – Alabama iOL Tyler Booker
Last year’s starting LG Laken Tomlinson signed elsewhere in free agency, leaving the door wide open for Booker (6-foot-5/321) to make an immediate impact on either side of Seattle’s line.
Could be: North Dakota State iOL Grey Zabel, Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka
19. Buccaneers – Marshall EDGE Mike Green
Haason Reddick‘s one-year, $14 million deal should not preclude Tampa Bay from adding another chess piece to HC Todd Bowles‘ defense, which has blitzed enemy QBs at a top-10 rate in all six seasons with him calling plays for the Bucs.
Could be: Texas CB Jahdae Barron, Michigan CB Will Johnson, Boston College EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku, Michigan TE Colston Loveland
20. Broncos – Texas CB Jahdae Barron
Any name outside of Omarion Hampton‘s goes against the grain, but GM George Paton himself explicitly mentioned this “strong class” being able to “get a good back in the second round up and all the way to the sixth round.” Friendly reminder HC Sean Payton has traded up on Day 2 in each year with the Broncos.
Could be: North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton, Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson, Michigan CB Will Johnson, Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan
21. Steelers – Alabama QB Jalen Milroe
Pittsburgh didn’t acquire DK Metcalf and gift him $60 million guaranteed only to have him running routes with Mason Rudolph in Week 1. Per NFL Insider Tom Pelissero, Milroe had dinner with the triad of HC Mike Tomlin, GM Omar Khan, and Steelers QB coach Tom Arth the night before his Pro Day.
Could be: Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart, Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
22. Chargers – Michigan TE Colston Loveland
Jim Harbaugh will undoubtedly add another RB behind Najee Harris in the first three rounds. Assuming Loveland is on the board, his career-high marks in receiving yards (649) and yards from scrimmage per play (14.4) for Harbaugh’s 2023 National Championship Wolverines take precedence.
Could be: Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan, Michigan DT Kenneth Grant, Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
23. Packers – North Dakota State iOL Grey Zabel
Only LG Aaron Banks and C Elgton Jenkins are currently under contract for Green Bay’s starting offensive line in 2026; Zabel’s (6-foot-5/312) career versatility in the FCS includes snaps at LT (974), LG (453), C (17), RG (222), RT (1,064), and even TE (42).
Could be: Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart, Marshall EDGE Mike Green, Oregon DT Derrick Harmon, Michigan DT Kenneth Grant
24. Vikings – South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori
Adept both inside the box and from the slot, Emmanwori (6-foot-3/220) can moonlight across Minnesota’s secondary until freed beyond Harrison Smith‘s 14th campaign.
Could be: Georgia S Malaki Starks, Texas CB Jahdae Barron, North Dakota State iOL Grey Zabel
25. Texans – Ohio State OL Josh Simmons
The wake of LT Laremy Tunsil‘s absence is a glaring need: Houston’s offensive line unacceptably finished 26th and 18th in yards before contact per attempt while attempting to assist C.J. Stroud on the ground the past two years.
Could be: Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr., Alabama iOL Tyler Booker, Ohio State iOL Donovan Jackson
26. Rams – Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
Everything’s on the table for Los Angeles given GM Les Snead‘s unique (and highly subjective) approach to evaluation. I expect them to be as open to trading back as Philadelphia at No. 32 overall.
Could be: Your guess is as good as mine
27. Ravens – Georgia S Malaki Starks
Similar to how DC Zach Orr shifted S Kyle Hamilton to the slot as a Swiss Army knife down the stretch, Starks can further throw play-callers off Baltimore’s scent with snaps from inside the box (544), in the slot (664), and at the line of scrimmage (40) across three seasons in the SEC.
Could be: Florida State CB Azareye’h Thomas, Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston, Mississippi CB Trey Amos, Boston College EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku
28. Lions – Boston College EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku
Detroit’s sack rate plummeted to 31st (4.8%) without Aidan Hutchinson from Week 7 on, highlighting their pressing need for another EDGE rusher behind him.
Could be: Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr., Ohio State iOL Donovan Jackson, Tennessee EDGE James Pearce Jr.
29. Commanders – North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton
Making life easier for their franchise QB during his rookie deal continues to take priority in Washington, gifting Jayden Daniels another piece who can explode upfield from underneath. Hampton encouragingly handled 282 or more touches in each of his last two seasons with the Tar Heels, hauling in 29 and 38 catches in that time.
Could be: Tennessee EDGE James Pearce Jr., Florida State CB Azareye’h Thomas, Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston, Mississippi CB Trey Amos, Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
30. Bills – Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan
Mack Hollins‘ and Amari Cooper‘s absences vacate 51.7% of Buffalo’s receiver routes from out wide (where McMillan ran 77% of his career routes at Arizona) last year.
Could be: Missouri WR Luther Burden III, Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka, Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston, Mississippi CB Trey Amos, Florida State CB Azareye’h Thomas
31. Chiefs – Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr.
Veteran Joe Thuney‘s departure to Chicago allows the team to install youth immediately along their offensive line. Conerly (6-foot-4/311) projects to compete on the interior while simultaneously providing insurance for LT Jaylon Moore.
Could be: Boston College EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku, Tennessee EDGE James Pearce Jr., Texas A&M EDGE Nic Scourton
32. Eagles – Ohio State iOL Donovan Jackson
Although OL and EDGE are popular choices in this spot, GM Howie Roseman would undoubtedly pick up the phone to let any suitor back into the first round for a falling-knife QB.
Could be: A(ny) trade down, Boston College EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku, Texas A&M EDGE Nic Scourton, Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr., Tennessee EDGE James Pearce Jr.
Missed the cut: Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell, Mississippi DT Walter Nolen, Tennessee EDGE James Pearce Jr., Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson, Missouri WR Luther Burden III, Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston, Mississippi CB Trey Amos, UCLA LB Femi Oladejo, Florida State CB Azareye’h Thomas, Georgia iOL Tate Ratledge, East Carolina CB Shavon Revel Jr.
