Last updated: November 14th at 4:45pm ET
Team Totals: 49ers 28.5, Cardinals 17
The Cardinals visit San Francisco with the Niners in a sneaky-vulnerable spot as Kyle Shanahan’s team comes off a Monday night division loss to Seattle wherein DC Robert Saleh’s defense took the field for a year-high 78 snaps and lost critical nickel rusher Ronald Blair (ACL) one week after MLB Kwon Alexander (pec) hit I.R. Even without Week 10 superstar Christian Kirk, Kyler Murray carved Saleh’s defense for Week 9’s QB8 finish and has four top-seven fantasy scores over his last six starts. With Arizona’s offense at full strength facing a short-rest 49ers defense, Murray is a high-floor, underrated-ceiling Week 11 play with top-15 scores in 7-of-10 starts. … For good reason, Kliff Kingsbury indicated Kenyan Drake will remain Arizona’s lead back over David Johnson after Drake handled 16 touches on 64% of the Cardinals’ Week 10 snaps versus Johnson’s six ineffective opportunities on a 43% playing-time clip. As Chase Edmonds (hamstring) likely won’t return before Arizona’s Week 12 bye and Johnson has been moving in slow motion on tape, Drake is the Cardinals’ lone fantasy-viable back against the 49ers. Particularly without Alexander, San Francisco showed vulnerability by yielding a 122/602/3 (4.93 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs over its last six games. Drake is a passable RB2/flex play, and Johnson is a low-floor flex.
Murray’s Week 10 target distribution: Christian Kirk 10; Larry Fitzgerald 8; Drake 7; Pharoh Cooper 5; KeeSean Johnson 4; Andy Isabella 3; Trent Sherfield 2; David Johnson and Charles Clay 1. … Kirk has emerged as Arizona’s top perimeter wideout with dominant team leads in targets (15) and Air Yards (217) over the Cardinals’ last two games. Kirk’s Week 11 bad news is San Francisco has yielded a league-low 17 completions of 20-plus yards. Kirk’s good news is opportunity matters more than matchups, and he projects as an upside WR2/3 in a defined role going forward. … Whereas Kirk’s Weeks 9-10 aDOT is 14.5 yards, Fitzgerald’s is a measly 5.3 as Arizona’s short-area possession receiver. Fitzgerald is a low-ceiling, PPR-specific WR3 each week. … Cooper ran a season-high 16 routes in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay, while TEs Clay (20 routes) and Maxx Williams (11 routes) essentially shared time. They are all sub-package non-factors in fantasy. … KeeSean Johnson drew four Week 10 targets on 51% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps and still hasn’t cleared 25 yards since Week 2. … Isabella does appear to be gaining legitimate ground. He logged Week 10 season highs in playing time (39%), routes run (18), and targets (3), and has now turned four targets into four catches for 166 yards and a touchdown over his last two games. With Fitz inside, Kirk and Isabella could form a potentially dynamic duo out wide for Arizona.
After turning in one of his worst 2019 performances in last Monday night’s loss to the Seahawks, Jimmy Garoppolo matches back up with an Arizona defense against which he turned in one of his best in Week 9, spraying Cardinals DC Vance Joseph’s unit for year highs in yards (317), touchdowns (4), completions (28), and passer rating (136.9) in a thrilling 28-25 win. Unfortunately, Week 11’s 49ers are not nearly the same team missing TE George Kittle (knee/ankle), LT Joe Staley (finger), RB Matt Breida (ankle), and potentially Emmanuel Sanders (ribs). Jimmy G is a fine two-QB-league start, but his sudden shortage of surrounding talent is a concern for Garoppolo’s streamer upside. Missing Kittle and Sanders in last week’s second half, Jimmy G went 12-of-26 passing with zero touchdowns and a pick. … Breida’s 1-2 game absence solidifies Tevin Coleman atop San Francisco’s backfield versus a Cardinals defense against which enemy backs are averaging 32.1 touches, a crisp 4.31 yards per carry, and 5.4 catches per game. Arizona did bottle up Coleman for 36 scoreless yards on 14 touches in Week 9, but Coleman is an easy bounce-back candidate as a two-plus-score home favorite with enhanced opportunity. For whatever it’s worth, Coleman has averaged 6.72 yards per carry with five touchdowns in three home games this year compared to 2.73 YPC with one score in four games on the road. I like Coleman as an RB2 with RB1 upside and as a DFS-tournament play. … Raheem Mostert should take Breida’s place in the rotation, which meant 13.5 touches per game since Coleman returned from his high ankle sprain in Week 5. Breida’s absence could also mean the reappearance of goal-line vulture Jeffrey Wilson, however, which would cut into the entire offense’s touchdown potential. Nevertheless, this week’s favorable matchup and environment give Mostert one-off flex viability as a versatile and explosive 1b back to Coleman’s 1a.
Jimmy G’s Week 10 target distribution: Deebo Samuel 11; Kendrick Bourne 8; Ross Dwelley 7; Coleman and Sanders 4; Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis 3; Breida 2; Mostert and Kyle Jusczcyk 1. … With Kittle all but ruled out and Sanders not far behind, Samuel projects as San Francisco’s No. 1 wideout in a plum spot. Cards top CB Patrick Peterson is nursing a calf injury and has been ineffective since returning from suspension – his YPA when targeted is 11.8 with two touchdowns allowed in four games – while Samuel leads San Francisco in red-zone targets (10), including 5 in the last three weeks. Per Sports Info Solutions, Arizona has allowed a league-high 17 red-zone TDs on the year. The Cards have also conceded league highs in catches (123), yards (1,523), and TDs (12) to slot receivers, where Samuel plays 63% of his snaps. … San Francisco’s Week 10 route distribution with Kittle inactive and Sanders leaving early: Samuel 45; Dwelley 43; Bourne 41; Pettis 26; Juszczyk 12; Goodwin 6. … Bourne committed two ugly drops in last week’s loss to Seattle, but Shanahan gave him a post-game vote of confidence, and Bourne looks likely to be a full-time player in this favorable spot. He’s worth a plug-and-play WR3/flex start for PPR leaguers in bye-week binds. … Dwelley stepped right into Kittle’s Week 10 role, drawing seven looks on 92% of the snaps. Albeit limited talent wise, Dwelley’s Week 11 opportunity and matchup give him strong streamer appeal considering Arizona has allowed the NFL’s most fantasy points to tight ends.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Cardinals 21