Last updated: October 3rd at 4:55pm ET
Team Totals: Eagles 29, Jets 15
Based on this game’s two-TD spread, the Jets’ in-practice loss of LG Kelechi Osemele (shoulder, knee) from an already discombobulated line, and Sam Darnold’s (mono/spleen) questionable availability and condition if he does start, I would rather take shots on the Eagles’ D/ST than most Jets skill players this week. … Le’Veon Bell is an exception, just not based on his running-game matchup; Philly’s forever-stout front limited enemy backs to an anemic 67/191/2 (2.85 YPC) rushing line in Weeks 1-4. But the Eagles have allowed the NFL’s sixth-most running back catches (27), while Le’Veon is on pace for a career-high 123 targets and collected nine from Darnold in Week 1, catching six for 32 yards and a score. The Jets have yielded the NFL’s second-highest QB Hit Rate (24.3%) and third-highest sack rate (12.1%). High-percentage throws to Bell give Adam Gase a means of circumventing his swinging-gate front five.
Popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low Air Yards Model, Robby Anderson is another possible exception, albeit a less-comfortable one with Darnold’s health still in serious question. In addition to his to-date unfulfilled Air Yards opportunity, Anderson’s matchup gives him DFS-tournament appeal after fellow outside WRs Davante Adams (10/180/0), Terry McLaurin (5/125/1), Julio Jones (5/106/2), Calvin Ridley (8/105/1), and Marvin Jones (6/101/1) all stomped the Eagles’ defenseless secondary in Weeks 1-4. … Jamison Crowder had his best game of the season (14/99/0) in Darnold’s Week 1 start against Buffalo, while Philadelphia’s loss of CB Avonte Maddox (neck, concussion) will force the Eagles to dig deeper into their slot-corner depth, potentially even resorting to 32-year-old street free agent Orlando Scandrick, who is on his fourth team in three seasons. Crowder is a PPR-specific WR3/4 flex play capable of racking up short receptions when the Jets fall behind and try to rally back as two-touchdown road dogs. … With Darnold on his way back and Gang Green’s bye out of the way, now is the time to add Chris Herndon in any season-long leagues where he’s available. In 2018, Herndon became just the eighth rookie tight end in the last decade to top 500 yards and finished top ten in PFF’s predictive yards per route run metric. Gase intends to deploy Herndon as an every-down player in three-receiver, one-tight end 11-personnel sets. Herndon will be an immediate TE1 when he becomes eligible in Week 6.
The Eagles come off a mini-bye following their Thursday night win at Lambeau as nearly two-touchdown favorites over the Jets, who conceded top-16 scores to each of their first three quarterbacks faced with a bottom-five sack rate (4.1%) and the NFL’s 12th-most yards per pass attempt allowed (7.7). This is a high-floor, high-ceiling spot for Carson Wentz, fantasy’s QB5 through four weeks. Although DeSean Jackson’s (quad) status remains in doubt, Wentz should otherwise play with a near-full deck after Alshon Jeffery (calf) and Dallas Goedert (calf) resumed their normal roles at Green Bay. Unfortunately, Wentz will be a season-long sell after Sunday’s game; Philadelphia’s Weeks 6-11 pass-defense schedule is beyond brutal (@ Vikings > @ Cowboys > @ Bills > vs. Bears > vs. Patriots). … Even as Gang Green has limited enemy backs to 57/216/3 (3.79 YPC) rushing, this game’s projected script sets up nicely for Jordan Howard to parlay his three-score Week 4 into another useful performance with Philadelphia likely to spend most of Sunday protecting a lead. Howard’s snaps are on an upward weekly trend (23% > 23% > 32% > 53%), and Howard out-touched Miles Sanders 18 to 11 versus the Packers. Sanders played just 36% of Philly’s Week 4 snaps and ran a season-low four pass routes. While this backfield presents whack-a-mole risk each week, Howard is the top Week 5 RB2/flex option. Sanders is a low-floor flex.
Wentz’s Weeks 2-4 target distribution: Zach Ertz 31; Nelson Agholor 24; Mack Hollins 17; Jeffery 9; Sanders 8; J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 7; Howard 6; Goedert and Darren Sproles 4. … Popping as Week 5’s No. 1 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model, Ertz is due for positive-TD regression after a scoreless opening month despite leading all tight ends in red-zone targets (6). Jets DC Gregg Williams’ scheme is typically vulnerable to tight ends because his “angel” safety aligns in punt-return formation, creating gaps in the middle of the field, and ILB C.J. Mosley (groin) doesn’t look ready to return. Wentz-to-Ertz is a compelling DFS stack I doubt will have high ownership. … Agholor goose egged in Jeffery’s Week 4 return and catches a tough draw against Jets slot CB Brian Poole, who allowed 36 scoreless yards on 15 targets (2.4 YPA) in Weeks 1-3. Agholor is a low-floor WR3/flex option against a secondary more vulnerable on the perimeter. … Odell Beckham (6/161/1), John Brown (7/123/1), Josh Gordon (6/83/0), and Phillip Dorsett (6/53/1) can all attest to that. Jeffery led the Eagles in Week 4 targets (9) and Air Yards (87), playing 81% of Philly’s offensive snaps at Green Bay. He can be confidently fired up as a WR2 in this plum draw. … Hollins filled in for Jackson against the Packers but was targeted just twice with Jeffery back in the fold. Arcega-Whiteside went from a 72% player in Week 3 to 10% in Week 4. … The Eagles are always better with Goedert on the field, but he has yet to exceed three targets in a game.
Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Jets 17