Last updated: November 22nd at 8:30am ET
Team Totals: 49ers 25.5, Packers 22.5
Aaron Rodgers comes off Green Bay’s bye as one of fantasy’s highest-variance passers with three top-three 2019 scores but results of QB19 or worse in 6-of-10 starts. As Rodgers’ yards per attempt sink from 8.42 at home to 6.87 on the road with 13 all-purpose TDs in six starts at Lambeau Field versus five touchdowns in four away games, Sunday night’s Bay Area visit brings with it lowered box-score expectations. The good news is San Francisco’s once-feared defense is falling apart, losing glue-guy MLB Kwon Alexander (torn pec) in Week 9, dangerous nickel rusher Ronald Blair (ACL) in Week 10, and seven-sack DE Dee Ford (hamstring) in Week 11. Each of the last three quarterbacks to face San Francisco has logged top-14 fantasy results, including two top-eight finishes by Kyler Murray. As he’s been all year, Rodgers still looks like a boom-bust start. … San Francisco’s defense has become especially leaky on the ground, yielding a 138/669/3 (4.85 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs over its last seven games. This bodes well for TD-machine Aaron Jones as an RB2 play with RB1 upside and Jamaal Williams as a bye-week flex. Jones and Williams may also experience a Sunday night passing-game spike. Per Sports Info Solutions, the 49ers have funneled a league-high 24% of opponent throws behind the line of scrimmage, while Rodgers has thrown a league-high 28% of his passes behind the line. Jones has accounted for a Packers team-high 21 targets on such throws, and Williams is right behind him at 20.
Rodgers’ Week 10 target distribution: Davante Adams 10; Allen Lazard 6; Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham 3; Jake Kumerow 2; Williams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling 1. … Adams visits San Francisco with seven-plus catches in four of his last five games and double-digit targets in three straight. The 49ers have allowed the NFL’s eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but Adams’ extreme volume and incredible on-field rapport with Rodgers keep him matchup proof. Scoreless on the year, Adams is also a screaming positive-TD-regression candidate. … Lazard ranked third among Packers wideouts in routes run (16) in their pre-bye win over Carolina. A touchdown-or-bust WR4, Lazard has finished below 50 yards in four straight games. … Allison operated as Green Bay’s No. 2 wideout against the Panthers, finishing second behind Adams (29) in routes (23). Allison hasn’t topped 52 yards all year. … No team has allowed fewer fantasy points to tight ends than San Francisco, boding poorly for Graham as a season-long streamer. … Kumerow served as Green Bay’s pre-bye No. 4 receiver with MVS at No. 5.
Week 12 gives San Francisco an opportunity to springboard its sputtering ground game against a Green Bay front enemy backs have stomped for 232/1,144/11 (4.93 YPC) rushing. The Packers have also given up the NFL’s tenth-most running back catches (59). Run-blocking maven George Kittle’s (knee) expected return can only help up front, while Tevin Coleman is a home-favorite lead back in a plus draw. Even as Coleman has been held under 75 total yards in five of his last six games, his Week 12 outlook is tough to resist as an RB2 play with RB1 upside. … Raheem Mostert handled eight touches on a 48% playing-time clip in last week’s win over Arizona and should see similar usage with Matt Breida (ankle) still sidelined, keeping Mostert in flex-play consideration. Mostert also ran the same number of Week 11 pass routes as Coleman (19). … San Francisco’s defensive downturn combined with its run-game struggles has forced more onto Jimmy Garoppolo’s plate. He’s responded by completing 104-of-150 passes (69.3%) for 1,164 yards (7.8 YPA) and an 11:4 TD-to-INT ratio over the last month. While Kyle Shanahan would probably prefer to impose his offensive will on Green Bay via the 49ers’ rushing attack, Garoppolo has shown he can hold his own in shootouts. Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders’ (rib) expected availability raises Jimmy G’s ceiling, while Green Bay’s evaporating pass rush has fallen to 21st in sacks (25) and 18th in QB hits (59).
Packers opponents are 57-of-79 (72%) passing for 628 yards (7.95 YPA) and five touchdowns when targeting tight ends; only three teams are allowing more fantasy points per game to Kittle’s position. On the off chance Kittle gets ruled out, 49ers No. 2 TE Ross Dwelley will stand in as a quality streamer. Dwelley’s Weeks 9-11 snap rates were 70%, 92%, and 88%, collecting 16 targets during that span. … Emmanuel Sanders’ risk is high battling a painful rib injury; he’s lasted for only 24 and 32 snaps the last two games before bowing out. Sanders’ midweek return to practice suggests he’s on track to start, however, keeping him in WR3 contention. Fellow WRs Amari Cooper (11/226/1), Kenny Golladay (5/121/0), D.J. Moore (9/120/0), Michael Gallup (7/113/1), Mike Williams (3/111/0), Allen Robinson (7/102/0), Courtland Sutton (5/87/0), Tyreek Hill (6/76/0), Mecole Hardman (2/55/1), Stefon Diggs (1/49/1), Alshon Jeffery (3/38/1), and Curtis Samuel (5/35/1) have all delivered useful games against Green Bay. … Deebo Samuel (shoulder) also emerged from last week’s loss banged up but seems healthier than Sanders, who is at greater risk of decoy usage. Samuel was the clear focal point of San Francisco’s passing attack in the last two weeks, handling double-digit targets in both and earning locked-in WR2 treatment versus Green Bay. … Kendrick Bourne is the favorite for third-receiver work in Week 12, while Marquise Goodwin has settled in as the 49ers’ lightly-used situational deep threat.
Score Prediction: Packers 24, 49ers 23