Last updated: December 3rd at 8:51pm ET.
Team Totals: Packers 28, Redskins 14
Even after last week’s stunning road upset of Carolina, the Redskins are a team to attack with fantasy D/STs, highlighted by raw rookie Dwayne Haskins absorbing 18 sacks in his first four NFL starts. Green Bay’s defense is a recommended streamer, while Haskins is a poor two-quarterback-league start. Seven straight quarterbacks to face the Packers have fantasy results of QB12 or worse, while Haskins’ weekly starter outcomes are QB27 > QB14 > QB25 > QB33. … Derrius Guice (10/129/2) and Adrian Peterson’s (13/99/1) Week 13 box-score results create high-risk chasey situations after both thumped Carolina’s Kawann Short– and Dontari Poe-less run defense, while neither Guice (30%) nor Peterson (36%) were dominant playing-time presences, and Chris Thompson (36%) will continue to own passing-down work. Since returning from injury, Guice’s touch counts are 8 > 11 > 12 compared to Peterson’s 12 > 11 > 13. The good news is enemy backs have tortured the Packers for 4.92 yards per carry and 14 all-purpose TDs in 12 games. The bad news is Guice’s RBBC involvement isn’t going away, and projected game script sets up extremely poorly for Washington’s dueling early-down rushers as two-touchdown dogs on the road.
Haskins’ 2019 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 27; Kelvin Harmon 21; Jeremy Sprinkle 14; Steven Sims, Trey Quinn, and Paul Richardson 11; Wendell Smallwood 7; A.P. 6; Thompson 5. … McLaurin’s stat lines in Haskins’ four starts are 4/39/0 > 3/69/0 > 5/72/0 > 2/8/0 with countless missed chances airmailed by Washington’s rookie signal caller or negated by penalty. Still pacing the Skins in targets and Air Yards (374) via Haskins, McLaurin has settled in as a boom-bust post-Case Keenum WR3 option. Vulnerable to long balls, Green Bay has coughed up the NFL’s seventh-most 20-plus-yard completions (46) and a league-high 14 completions of 40-plus yards. McLaurin ranks top five in 20-plus-yard vertical targets (22). … Locking himself in as Washington’s No. 2 wideout over oft-hobbled Richardson, Harmon’s receiving lines are 5/53/0 > 3/43/0 > 3/51/0 in three games since the Skins’ Week 10 bye. A big, physical, possession receiver, Harmon has played himself into stretch-run WR4 territory and should be owned in all Dynasty leagues. Both McLaurin and Harmon happen to be popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 14 Buy Low Air Yards Model. … Sprinkle cleared 25 yards for the first time all year (36) in last week’s win over the Panthers. He’s an entirely matchup-based streamer versus the Packers, who’ve allowed the NFL’s third-most fantasy points to tight ends. George Kittle (6/129/1), Darren Waller (7/126/2), Greg Olsen (8/98/0), Hunter Henry (7/84/0), Kaden Smith (6/70/0), Travis Kelce (4/63/1), and Foster Moreau (2/24/1) all met or beat box-score expectations against the Pack over Green Bay’s last six games.
Green Bay’s massive scoring-projection advantage positions Matt LaFleur to lean on his rushing attack facing a Skins defense hemorrhaging 155.0 total yards per game to enemy backs. Unfortunately, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams remain entrenched in a near-even RBBC after Jones narrowly out-touched Williams 15 to 14 in last week’s win over the Giants, yet was outgained by Williams 67 to 31. Jones’ box score was marred by repeated goal-line stuffs and another negated score. He did out-snap Williams 58% to 42% and remains the preferred RB2 play, but Williams has emerged as an every-week flex averaging 15 touches over his last three games. … Aaron Rodgers continued to fulfill his bum-beater reputation by pouring Week 13’s QB2 overall result on the Giants, giving him four top-three QB1 scores on the season but results of QB19 or worse in 7-of-12 starts. It’s safe to call the Redskins a “bum” opponent, especially since they’re on the road for a cinch letdown spot following last week’s upset win at Carolina, and Rodgers has played his best at home. In particular, Rodgers’ yards per attempt spike from 6.3 in away games to 8.4 at Lambeau. Rodgers-to-Davante Adams is an every-week must-stack in DFS tournaments.
Rodgers’ Weeks 10-13 target distribution: Adams 32; Williams 13; Allen Lazard and Geronimo Allison 10; Jones 7; Jimmy Graham and Marquez Valdes-Scantling 6; Jake Kumerow 2. … Adams enters Week 14 with six-plus catches in six of his last seven games and double-digit targets in five straight. Matchups don’t matter for Adams due to his extreme volume and unbreakable rapport with Rodgers. … Although Lazard exploded for a monster Week 13 against the Giants (3/103/1), he did so on just three targets and 55% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, operating as a rotational player at the tail end of the Packers’ three-receiver sets. Lazard failed to clear 50 yards in five straight previous games. Green Bay’s non-Adams wideouts simply aren’t fantasy options on such minimal usage. … Fading away down the stretch as he so often seems to do, Graham has played fewer than 50% of the Packers’ snaps in consecutive weeks and hasn’t topped three targets in a game since Week 9. Graham is a touchdown-or-bust streamer at best.
Score Prediction: Packers 30, Redskins 3