Last updated: November 7th at 8:15am ET
Team Totals: 49ers 26, Seahawks 20
Particularly with MLB Kwon Alexander (torn pec) done for the year, San Francisco’s NFC-best defense suddenly looks vulnerable to the run after DC Robert Saleh’s unit was gashed for 95/511/2 (5.38 YPC) rushing by enemy backs over its last five games. His Seahawks-style up-front scheme an abject failure in 2017-2018, Saleh switched to a Wide-9 approach that spread out the Niners’ defensive line in an effort to create more space for edge rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford. While the shift has benefited Saleh’s pass rush, it creates gaps between the tackles that Christian McCaffrey exploited on Week 8 pitch and toss plays and Kenyan Drake exposed in Week 9 spread alignments. Now missing Alexander to fill those gaps, this defense looks mortal as it pertains to Chris Carson’s Week 10 draw. Even as Carson fumbled twice in last week’s win over Tampa Bay – losing one – the Seahawks’ coaching staff went right back to him every time in an ultimate show of faith. … Russell Wilson’s MVP-race lead and fantasy matchup-proofness will be put to the test Monday night against a 49ers defense that’s held 6-of-8 quarterbacks faced to box-score outcomes of QB24 or worse while leading the NFL in sack rate (11.7%) and ranking top five in QB Hit Rate (18.4%). Fortunately, Wilson owns the league’s highest passer rating when pressured (112.1) by way of an 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio and 9.01 YPA under duress. With top-five fantasy quarterback results in five of his last eight starts, I’m riding with Wilson in all season-long scenarios.
Wilson’s 2019 target distribution: Tyler Lockett 72; D.K. Metcalf 54; Carson 29; Jaron Brown 24; David Moore 21; Jacob Hollister 14; C.J. Prosise 11; Luke Willson 10; Malik Turner 9. … As San Francisco is allowing the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy points and a league-low 119.5 combined yards per game to wide receivers, this is the toughest matchup Lockett has faced all year. Maintaining an unbreakable on-field bond with Wilson, Lockett is a bet-on-talent WR1 play with 75-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 11 of his last 12 games. … A full-time boundary receiver, Metcalf’s on-paper matchup is toughest against the 49ers, whose three main outside CBs Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley, and Ahkello Witherspoon have combined to permit completions on just 31-of-67 targets (46%) for 437 yards (6.52 YPA) and three TDs. Still a consistent WR2/3 option with 50-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 8-of-9 games, Metcalf has earned matchup-agnostic treatment in season-long leagues and is a high-ceiling one-game DFS-slate start. … Especially with waiver claim Josh Gordon now fighting for snaps, Seattle’s No. 3 wideout job is entirely up for grabs. Moore played ahead of Brown recently but could disappear should Gordon show he’s ready to roll. … As Ed Dickson (knee) wasn’t activated from I.R./return and Willson suffered an in-game rib injury, Hollister luckboxed last week’s 4/37/2 receiving line on a pair of short scores. Teams targeting tight ends against San Francisco are 25-of-38 passing for just 165 yards (4.3 YPA) and one TD. Willson returned to last week’s game and Dickson is likely back, rendering Hollister probable fool’s gold.
Among the NFL’s most-rested teams following their Thursday-to-Monday Weeks 9-10 respite after an early-season bye, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense hosts Seattle with a near-full deck as LT Joe Staley (fibula), RT Mike McGlinchey (knee), and FB Kyle Juszczyk (knee) are all due back. Jimmy Garoppolo returns from his season- and arguably career-best game that consisted of four touchdowns and 8.6 yards per attempt versus Arizona to face a similarly vulnerable Seattle defense that has yielded top-12 fantasy results to six straight quarterbacks faced while ranking 29th in sack rate (4.2%) and dead last in QB Hit Rate (8.3%). Garoppolo’s typical game-manager usage is always cause for pause – he ranks 27th in the NFL in pass attempts per game (28.2) – but fantasy results correlate far stronger with efficiency than volume at the quarterback position, and this projects as an efficient night for Jimmy G. He is quite stream-able in season-long leagues. … Tevin Coleman’s Week 9 game was overwhelmingly forgettable against the Cardinals, losing a touchdown run to offensive holding, dropping a potential 80-yard TD catch on a fourth-quarter screen, and getting severely outplayed by Matt Breida. Coleman still out-snapped Breida 53% to 41% and remains San Francisco’s favorite for backfield volume in a bounce-back spot. Averaging 17.3 touches over his last four games, Coleman’s big-play ability and high-volume scoring-position usage keep him firmly in RB2 territory with RB1 upside as a home-favorite lead runner versus Seattle. … Breida is better treated as an RB2/flex play with double-digit touches in 7-of-8 games but only 14 receptions on the year and a measly three red-zone carries compared to Coleman’s 21.
Jimmy G’s Weeks 8-9 target distribution: George Kittle 15; Emmanuel Sanders 14; Deebo Samuel 10; Coleman 6; Dante Pettis and Ross Dwelley 4; Breida 3; Kendrick Bourne 2. … Gerald Everett (7/136/0), C.J. Uzomah (4/66/0), Austin Hooper (6/65/1), Ricky Seals Jones (4/37/1), Tyler Higbee (3/47/0), and Vance McDonald (7/38/2) have all beaten box-score expectations against Seattle, which is allowing the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. On pace for a career-high 92 receptions, Kittle maintains room for positive-touchdown regression with just two scores on the year. … Here’s how routes were distributed in the 49ers’ Week 9 wideout corps: Sanders 26; Samuel 17; Bourne 12; Pettis 10; Richie James 2. Already asserting himself as San Francisco’s clear-cut No. 1 wideout, Sanders is running a team-high 50% of his routes inside. The Seahawks have conceded useful PPR stat lines to slot WRs Cooper Kupp (9/117/1), JuJu Smith-Schuster (5/84/0), Chris Godwin (7/61/0), Tyler Boyd (8/60/0), and Russell Gage (7/58/0). Even on the run-first Niners, Sanders has quickly ascended to WR2 treatment on such a voluminous target share. … Samuel is bye-week playable as a season-long WR3/flex and worth serious consideration on one-game DFS slates with big-play potential on manufactured touches. Samuel quietly leads San Francisco in red-zone targets (9) and equaled his year high in raw targets (7) in Week 9’s win.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Seahawks 24