Last updated: December 6th at 9:45am ET
Team Totals: Seahawks 23.5, Rams 23.5
If Seahawks-Rams at all mirrors recent history, it’ll be a high-scoring affair after Seattle and L.A. played to point totals of 59, 67, and 64 in their last three meetings. Of concern for Russell Wilson is Sunday’s inside matchup of Aaron Donald versus Seahawks second-string C Joey Hunt, who is spelling Justin Britt (ACL). Wilson has banked top-15 fantasy weeks in 8-of-12 starts, yet this year 8-of-12 quarterbacks to draw Los Angeles have logged outcomes of QB15 or worse. With Jalen Ramsey expected to chase Tyler Lockett, Wilson is a boom-bust season-long play. … Los Angeles presents a poor matchup for Seattle’s in-transition backfield, holding enemy backs to 3.70 yards per carry and an anemic 34.5 receiving yards per game. Chris Carson maintained leadership of last week’s running back usage, out-touching Rashaad Penny 24 to 19 and narrowly out-snapping Penny 52% to 47%. Sunday’s difficult matchup and Seattle’s lack of Carson-Penny differentiation renders both fringe RB2/flex options with touchdown dependency.
Wilson’s Week 13 target distribution: Jacob Hollister 8; D.K. Metcalf 7; Penny 5; David Moore 4; Tyler Lockett 3; Carson 2; Josh Gordon and Jaron Brown 1. … Hollister set year highs in targets, snaps (81%), and catches (6) in Seattle’s post-bye win over Minnesota. An 81% player in Week 13, Hollister belongs in stringent TE1 season-long talks against the Vikings. … Metcalf has 75-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 10-of-12 games and checked in as Week 14’s No. 4 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … A difference maker all year, Lockett’s late-season lack of production, shin injury, and flu illness have all put him in a boom-bust place. Lockett hasn’t cleared 40 yards since Week 9. The Rams are expected to allow Jalen Ramsey to chase Lockett inside, creating opportunities for other Seahawks.
Jared Goff’s career struggles have largely come versus defenses that generate pressure and/or catch Goff outside of L.A. Goff grew up in Cali, played college ball at Cal, and now plays professionally with Los Angeles despite small hands and ongoing ball-security woes. 9-of-12 quarterbacks to face Pete Carroll’s defense have logged fantasy scores of QB16 or worse. Sunday night still sets up nicely for Goff, whose career yards per attempt sky from 7.36 at home to 7.96 and away. The Rams remain a menace for a Seahawks team with Super Bowl aspirations. … Todd Gurley looked to regain 2017 form in last Sunday’s destruction of Arizona, parlaying 20 touches into 115 yards and an end-zone trip. Gurley’s usage still isn’t what it once was – he’s totaled below 100 yards in 9-of-12 games – but he’s moved back toward that vicinity as lead member of a Rams committee that also includes goal-line vulture Malcolm Brown. Maintaining a painfully low fantasy floor, Gurley still has just eight receptions over his last six games.
Goff’s Weeks 12-13 target distribution: Robert Woods 27; Cooper Kupp 16; Tyler Higbee 14; Brandin Cooks and Josh Reynolds 6; Gurley 4; Gerald Everett 2. … On target counts of 11 > 9 > 18 over his last three appearances, Woods is an easy bet-on-WR2 with zero 2019 touchdown catches. Beginning with most recent, Woods’ six stat lines against Seattle are 5/48/0 > 4/89/0 > 5/92/0 > 6/45/1 > 5/66/0 > 10/162/0. Despite horrendous touchdown luck, Woods long ago earned every-week season-long starter treatment. He’s banked 80-plus yards in four of Woods’ last five games. … Seattle’s history with slot receivers bodes well for Week 14’s Kupp production; the Seahawks have conceded useful PPR stat lines to slot WRs Kupp himself twice (9/117/1, 6/65/1), JuJu Smith-Schuster (5/84/0), Chris Godwin (7/61/0), Tyler Boyd (8/60/0), Russell Gage (7/58/0), Kendrick Bourne (4/42/1), and Greg Ward (6/40/0). … Cooks is an active member of Los Angeles’ 53-man roster but is little more than a role player at this point. Cooks’ concussion history suggests he may never reemerge as a full-time NFL player, while Cooks’ own production has lagged with fewer than 75 yards once in his last 15 games. At this point, I’m willing to believe Cooks is more of a decoy than individual producer for the Rams. … Everett (ankle) is likely to sit again, rendering Higbee a sexy Week 14 streamer after Higbee parlayed season highs in snaps (91%) and routes run (33) into Week 13’s 7/107/1 line, all in the first half. The Seahawks have permitted the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, keeping Higbee firmly in the season-long QB1 mix.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 23