Last updated: November 16th at 2:00am ET.
Broncos at Vikings
Team Totals: Vikings 24.5, Broncos 14.5
Even after Brandon Allen game managed Denver’s offense capably enough to beat the underachieving Browns before Week 10’s bye, this sets up as an eruption spot for Minnesota’s D/ST at home facing a Broncos offense that has yielded the NFL’s fourth-highest sack rate (9.6%) and ranks 28th in points per game allowed (16.6). Mike Zimmer can deploy the same game plan he used last Sunday night in Dallas with SS Harrison Smith as a full-time box safety to stamp out the run; the Vikings stymied Cowboys backs for 21/43/0 rushing (2.05 YPC) even without run-stopping NT Linval Joseph (knee). As rookie Drew Lock (thumb, I.R.) resumed practicing this week, Allen’s leash will soon shorten. … Denver ran a season-low 43 offensive plays in its pre-bye win over Cleveland, badly skewing its backfield usage numbers. Phillip Lindsay managed nine carries and zero targets and was out-snapped by Royce Freeman 50% to 49%, while Freeman rushed five times and was targeted once. As two-score road underdogs locked into a near-even RBBC in a bad matchup, Lindsay and Freeman are both low-floor Week 11 flex options.
Allen’s Week 9 target distribution: Courtland Sutton 8; Noah Fant 4; Diontae Spencer 3; Freeman, Troy Fumagalli, and Devontae Booker 1. … After leading Denver in targets and Air Yards (70) and Mossing Denzel Ward for a 21-yard touchdown in Allen’s first start, Sutton is the Broncos’ lone semi-trustworthy pass-catcher play. Amid shoddy quarterbacking all year, Sutton has 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 8-of-9 games. His Week 11 matchup is also softer than it may seem; Vikings outside CBs Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Mike Hughes have been collectively cooked for 1,172 yards and a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio on 150 targets this year. All have allowed passer ratings over 100. Due to Allen’s under-center presence, Sutton will have almost no DFS-tournament ownership even as a plus-draw volume hog. Sutton also leads Denver in red-zone targets (11), and Vikings opponents have a league-high 70% pass rate inside the ten-yard line this season (Sports Info Solutions). … Although Fant’s big Week 9 (3/115/1) was largely a gift via atrocious Browns tackling on his 75-yard catch-and-run TD, Fant promisingly ran routes on 21-of-23 Allen dropbacks and played a season-high 85% of Denver’s offensive snaps. Tight end matchups don’t get tougher than the Vikings – they’re the only team yet to allow a tight end touchdown while containing Travis Kelce (7/62/0), Zach Ertz (4/54/0), Dallas Goedert (5/48/0), T.J. Hockenson (3/32/0), and Jason Witten (2/17/0) over the last five weeks – but Fant’s usage is still trending upward as a potential stretch-run TE1 in a Broncos offense where target competition is soft behind Sutton. … Broncos wide receiver route totals in their Week 9 win over Cleveland: Sutton 23; DaeSean Hamilton 17; Spencer 16; Fred Brown 1. Tim Patrick (hand) is due back from I.R./return in Week 11, but Denver’s passing game will struggle mightily to support more than two box-score assets.
Fresh off another high-efficiency effort in Sunday night’s thrilling road win at Dallas, Kirk Cousins enters Week 11 having completed 133-of-186 passes (71.5%) for 1,701 yards (9.2 YPA) and a sterling 15:1 TD-to-INT ratio over his last six starts, committing just one turnover in that span. Cousins’ hotness will be tested by Vic Fangio’s Broncos, who’ve yet to allow a single top-12 QB1 fantasy week while permitting the NFL’s sixth-fewest points per game (18.9). Adam Thielen (hamstring) is another week away, and Stefon Diggs will have his hands full with Chris Harris. Cousins is a low-end season-long-league starter. … As big home favorites against a Broncos offense that seems highly unlikely to generate many points, this game sets up much more positively for Dalvin Cook. Collectively, enemy backs are averaging 29.9 touches per game when facing the Broncos, suggesting Alexander Mattison could even push for a double-digit workload off the bench. Cook still projects for the obvious heavylifting with 18-plus touches in 10-of-10 games and 115-plus total yards in 8-of-10. Cook has also dominated passing-game work with Thielen out, tallying consecutive receiving lines of 5/73/0 > 4/45/0 > 7/86/0 in Weeks 8-10. The Broncos have coughed up 5.7 receptions per game to enemy backs, and Mattison has drawn just five targets all year. As usual, Cook is Week 11’s No. 2 fantasy running play behind only Christian McCaffrey (vs. ATL).
Cousins’ Weeks 8-10 target distribution: Cook 20; Stefon Diggs 17; Irv Smith 15; Kyle Rudolph 13; Bisi Johnson 8; Laquon Treadwell 7; Mattison and C.J. Ham 4. … Their bye on deck in Week 12, holding out Thielen through Minnesota’s open date makes all the sense in the world. … Diggs failed to capitalize on Thielen’s Weeks 9-10 absences on stat lines of 1/4/0 and 3/49/0, and matching up with Broncos top CB Harris bodes negatively for Diggs in a game where Cousins seems likely to level off. Ultimately, Diggs would be a bet-on-talent, fade-matchup WR2 play. The Vikings haven’t been forcing him the ball, and haven’t needed to with the run game rocking. Only three receivers (Tyrell Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Odell Beckham) have cleared 75 yards against Fangio’s secondary this year. … Only two tight ends have cleared 45 yards against the Broncos – Darren Waller (7/70/0) and Jack Doyle (4/61/0) – yet Smith and Rudolph’s enhanced sans-Thielen roles have given them streamer life. Smith has drawn six targets in three of Minnesota’s last four games, and Rudolph has likewise hit pay dirt in three of four. Rudolph is a touchdown-or-bust fringe TE1 and Smith a PPR-specific, lower-ceiling play. … Held under 30 yards in three straight games, Johnson is deep-league WR5 option in this difficult passing-game draw.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Broncos 10
Falcons at Panthers
Team Totals: Panthers 28.5, Falcons 22.5
With Ito Smith (concussion) on I.R. and Devonta Freeman (ankle) expected to miss at least two weeks, 2017 fifth-round pick Brian Hill takes over as Atlanta’s feature back with special teamer Kenjon Barner and rookie Qadree Ollison in reserve. Plus sized (6’1/219) and a competent pass catcher, Hill built a workhorse track record at Wyoming with two seasons over 300 touches and has a shot to approach 20 in Carolina. Still reeling in run defense, the Panthers have been destroyed for 198/1000/14 (5.05 YPC) rushing and seventeen all-purpose TDs by enemy backs in nine games. … Matt Ryan helped engineer last week’s road upset of New Orleans in a game-manager role. With assistant coaches Jeff Ulbrich and Raheem Morris replacing Dan Quinn as the Falcons’ defensive play callers, Atlanta’s once-lifeless pass rush erupted for six Drew Brees sacks and didn’t allow a single touchdown drive. Ryan still didn’t play well – his 5.2 yards per attempt and 78.5 passer rating were both Ryan’s second-worst marks of the year – and he now faces a tough road test against a Panthers defense that’s held 7-of-9 quarterbacks faced to fantasy results of QB15 or worse while ranking first in the NFL in sacks (36) and fifth in QB hits (64). Aaron Rodgers (QB24), Jameis Winston (QB16, QB21), Deshaun Watson (QB20), and Jared Goff (QB29) have all produced below expectation versus Ron Rivera’s crew. Ryan is a fringe QB1 option in Week 11.
Ryan’s post-bye target distribution: Julio Jones 9; Austin Hooper and Russell Gage 5; Calvin Ridley and Freeman 4; Hill and Christian Blake 2. … Rivera’s defense has held Jones in relative check over their last five meetings (4/28/1 > 5/64/0 > 5/80/0 > 6/118/0 > 4/60/0) with James Bradberry (groin) in primary coverage. Bradberry is on track to play, rendering Julio a bet-on-talent WR1 on pace for 95/1,407/7 receiving through nine games. … Hooper (knee) is week to week, enhancing Gage and Ridley’s projected volume. Gage is worth a PPR-specific WR4 look against Carolina, which has struggled to contain fellow slot WRs Chris Godwin (10/151/0, 8/121/1), Dede Westbrook (7/82/0), Adam Humphries (4/65/0), Christian Kirk (10/59/0), Cooper Kupp (7/46/0), Larry Fitzgerald (5/36/1), and Emmanuel Sanders (4/25/1). … Ridley delivered WR2 results in each of last year’s Panthers meetings (4/64/1, 3/90/1). Frustratingly inconsistent this season, Ridley has finished below 50 yards in 5-of-9 games. He’s a boom-bust WR2/3 option at this point, but Ridley’s odds of booming are increasing by way of Freeman and Hooper’s losses after Mohamed Sanu’s trade to New England. Ridley is also promisingly popping in Week 11’s Buy Low Air Yards Model. Ridley’s outlook will further enhance if dangerous Panthers No. 2 CB Donte Jackson (hip, questionable) can’t go. … Atlanta’s tight ends are a fantasy situation to avoid in Hooper’s absence. Next up on the depth chart are block-first TE Luke Stocker and second-year Yale graduate Jaeden Graham.
Back home after roughing up Green Bay for his seventh game over 140 total yards in nine tries, Christian McCaffrey faces a Falcons defense on which he poured 317 yards in two 2018 meetings and this year has hemorrhaged 28.0 touches per game to enemy backs. As a six-point home-favorite bellcow who’s handled 91% of Carolina’s backfield work, CMC is once again Week 11’s top running back play. … Mike Davis’ addition muddies McCaffrey’s handcuff situation; if CMC went down, Davis and Reggie Bonnafon would likely share work. … Kyle Allen has finished QB15 or worse in six straight starts, but his matchup is enticing. Last week’s fluky shutdown of the Saints notwithstanding, Atlanta has given up top-12 results to six of its last eight quarterbacks faced. Allen’s game-manager role is a constant concern for his ceiling, but this is the rare spot where his opponent is soft enough for Allen to flirt with a QB1 score.
Allen’s 2019 target distribution: D.J. Moore 55; Curtis Samuel 51; CMC 42; Greg Olsen 37; Jarius Wright 24; Reggie Bonnafon 4. … Coming off back-to-back 100-plus-yard games with a ten-target average over his last four, Moore is a shoo-in WR2 play with WR1 upside against an Atlanta secondary that’s coughed up the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Moore should experience positive-touchdown regression soon with just one end-zone trip on the year and none since Week 3. The Falcons have allowed the NFL’s seventh-most wide receiver touchdowns (12). … Samuel leads Carolina in 20-plus-yard targets (19), while the Falcons have surrendered the league’s 11th-most completions of 20-plus yards (33). Much like Moore, Samuel is a locked-in WR2 play in one of the best matchups he’ll catch all year. … Smothered in coverage by defenses since Allen’s first start, Olsen showed he can very much still play with an 8/98/0 receiving line on ten targets in last week’s loss to Green Bay, dominating along the sidelines in particular. Since losing SS Keanu Neal (Achilles’) seven games ago, Atlanta has been torched for 33 completions on 48 tight end targets (69%) for 375 yards and four touchdowns. Particularly at one of fantasy football’s least-reliable positions, Olsen has more than earned TE1 treatment in Week 11.
Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Falcons 20
Texans at Ravens
Team Totals: Ravens 27, Texans 23
Bill O’Brien’s Texans return from their bye with a 6-3 record but shortchanged by defensive injuries that may raise their own scoring expectation. Top-five MVP candidate Deshaun Watson has been all but unfazed by environmental limitations, registering top-12 fantasy outcomes in 6-of-9 starts with five top-four results. Week 11 represents Watson’s hardest to-date matchup at Baltimore, whose secondary has reached near-full strength after yielding just one top-12 QB1 score in its initial nine games. I’m standing by Watson as a season-long play but questioning his DFS ceiling. … O’Brien sticking with Carlos Hyde amid four fumbles (two lost) over Houston’s last five games shows an unflinching commitment most NFL backs rarely receive. Hyde is catch-less in 6-of-9 games with one target or fewer in 8-of-9. Sunday’s matchup is favorable, though; badly deficient at inside linebacker, Ravens DC Wink Martindale’s unit coughed up 137/625/7 (4.56 YPC) rushing to enemy backs over its last seven games. As usual, Hyde is a touchdown-driven RB2/flex option whose floor is always lowered by his near-nonexistent receiving role. He’s especially risky this week as a four-point road underdog. … Even as Duke Johnson has severely outgained Hyde 6.8 to 4.7 on a per-touch basis, O’Brien has shown no inclination toward enhancing Johnson’s role. Averaging just 7.9 touches over Houston’s last eight games, Johnson is a PPR-specific flex option facing a Ravens defense allowing the NFL’s third-fewest running back catches per game (4.0).
Watson’s Weeks 8-9 target distribution: DeAndre Hopkins 24; Johnson 10; Kenny Stills and Darren Fells 9; Jordan Akins 8; DeAndre Carter 4; Hyde 1. … Facing Baltimore’s loaded secondary comprised of Earl Thomas, Jimmy Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Brandon Carr will always be daunting for enemy wideouts, leaving us to bank on Hopkins’ talent and voluminous role. On pace for a career-high 121 receptions, Hopkins is averaging 12.0 targets over his last four games. … Will Fuller (hamstring) is tentatively due back after Houston’s bye, but Fuller’s persistent health issues and Sunday’s bad matchup render him a Hail Mary WR3 investment at best. … Fuller’s return would move Stills back into the slot, where he’s played his best football as a Texan. Sans Fuller, Stills managed a combined 74 scoreless yards on nine targets in Weeks 8-9. While neither Texans ancillary receiver offers a safe floor, I would play Stills over Fuller straight up in Week 11. … Tied with Hopkins for the team lead in red-zone targets (9) and targets inside the ten-yard line (4), Fells has earned low-end TE1 treatment with snap rates of 84% or higher in three of Houston’s last four games and six end-zone trips on the year. Baltimore’s cornerback strength may encourage Watson to lean especially heavily on Fells this week. … Akins has cleared 40 yards in 1-of-9 games. … Carter played ahead of Keke Coutee in the slot with Fuller sidelined but never saw enough usage for fantasy relevance. Stills should take over that interior role going forward.
No. 1 fantasy quarterback Lamar Jackson enters yet another eruption spot back home after ethering Cincinnati for last week’s QB1 result, good for Jackson’s eighth top-ten finish in nine starts and seventh top-six score. Missing J.J. Watt (torn pec) up front and flammable on the backend, Houston has yielded top-12 outcomes to 7-of-9 quarterbacks faced. The Texans lack speed at defensive back to handle Marquise Brown and coverage linebackers to contain Mark Andrews. As is often true, Jackson is Week 11’s top quarterback play. … As the Ravens needed a year-low 46 offensive plays to manhandle the hapless Bengals, Mark Ingram managed a season-low nine touches in last week’s 49-13 blowout win. Ingram did score his eighth TD in nine games and remains an every-week RB2 in season-long leagues despite continued touchdown dependency. As Ingram’s main fantasy flaw has been his passing-game near-nonexistence, it’s notable Houston has surrendered the NFL’s most catches (69) and receiving yards (571) to running backs and could get Ingram going a bit as a receiver here.
Jackson’s post-bye target distribution: Mark Andrews 11; Nick Boyle 9; Marquise Brown 8; Willie Snead 5; Hayden Hurst 4; Ingram 3; Justice Hill 1. … Even as Andrews ran fewer than 20 routes for the third game in a row, he overcame by drawing targets on 8-of-17 pass patterns and turned them into 6/53/2 receiving against a Bengals linebacker unit that couldn’t come close to covering him. Texans inside linebackers have been cooked for 348 yards on 42 targets (8.3 YPA). Andrews remains boom-busty as a rotational tight end playing under 50% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps, but only a small handful of tight ends can match Andrews’ weekly upside. He’s always an excellent DFS-stack partner with Jackson. … Recent box scores suggest Boyle has taken on a bigger passing-game role of late, but his route totals haven’t changed, and Boyle hasn’t exceeded five targets in a 2019 game. Even in a plus draw, Boyle is a weak tight end streamer. … Like Andrews, Brown made the most of his limited Week 10 opportunity, parlaying just ten routes run on 39% of the snaps into a perfect 4/80/1 receiving line on four targets. The Texans’ secondary has struggled to defend speed-oriented wideouts for years, highlighted this year by Ted Ginn (7/101/0), Tyrell Williams (3/91/1), Calvin Ridley (5/88/1), Tyreek Hill (5/80/2), T.Y. Hilton (6/74/1), Chris Conley (4/73/0), and D.J. Chark (7/55/1). Brown is an upside WR2 play versus Houston.
Score Prediction: Ravens 31, Texans 24
Bills at Dolphins
Team Totals: Bills 22.5, Dolphins 17.5
It took two rushing TDs, but Josh Allen finally turned in a ceiling game in last week’s loss to Cleveland with Week 10’s fantasy QB6 score. Allen now visits Miami as a consistent high-floor play with top-16 outcomes in 8-of-8 full games and three top-ten finishes on the year. While Allen warrants season-long QB1 treatment and DFS consideration, the Dolphins’ D/ST is also suddenly in streamer play coming off consecutive top-eight results and facing erratic Allen at home in one of Week 11’s lowest-projected-scoring affairs. … Even as Devin Singletary’s box-score results disappointed against the Browns, his usage did not with a season-high seven targets, 68% snap rate to Frank Gore’s 32%, and 11 touches to Gore’s 6. Over the past three weeks, Singletary has run 45 routes to Gore’s 20. While Singletary has clearly grabbed Buffalo’s backfield reins, one small Week 11 concern is the revenge-game nature of Sunday’s contest with Gore facing his old team in Gore’s hometown. Nevertheless, Singletary has earned every-week RB2 treatment against a Dolphins defense running backs have touched up for 250/1,185/6 (4.74 YPC) rushing and ten all-purpose TDs in nine games. Singletary also happens to be popping as Week 11’s lone running back in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low Air Yards Model. For season-long leaguers in severe bye-week binds, Gore is flex usable in hopes the revenge narrative merits him an additional goal-line carry or two.
Allen’s 2019 target distribution: John Brown 66; Cole Beasley 56; Dawson Knox 30; Singletary 23; Isaiah McKenzie 15; Gore and T.J. Yeldon 9; Duke Williams 7; Robert Foster 6; Tyler Kroft 5. … Much like his quarterback, Brown has continued to lack ceiling games but delivered week-over-week consistency. Week 11’s matchup does offer Brown spiked-week potential; Miami has yielded the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and tenth-most to quarterbacks, favoring Allen-to-Brown DFS-tournament stacks. … With 40-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 8-of-9 games, Beasley remains a PPR-specific every-week WR3 whose outlook is enhanced by Sunday’s matchup. Buffalo’s narrow target distribution has buoyed Beasley’s weekly floor. … Knox has maintained the Bills’ primary tight end role since Kroft’s return, but Kroft’s game-day participation has been enough to cut into Knox’s fantasy viability. As Kroft siphoned 18 routes and 43% of the snaps in Buffalo’s Week 10 loss, Knox was fortunate to emerge with season highs in targets (6) and catches (4) at Cleveland. The good news is Dolphins opponents are 47-of-67 passing (70%) for 553 yards (8.3 YPA) when targeting tight ends. The bad news is Knox’s floor is lowered by his rotational usage and Buffalo’s limited passing-game pie.
Even as Brian Flores’ Dolphins have begun to play better, 9-of-9 DSTs to face Miami have banked top-12 fantasy scores, which should place Buffalo nearly atop Week 11’s defensive rankings. This is a low-floor, high-risk matchup for Ryan Fitzpatrick; 8-of-9 passers to face the Bills have finished with fantasy results of QB13 or worse, while Sean McDermott’s team is allowing the NFL’s third-fewest raw points per game (16.7). Understanding the pass-friendly nature of league rules, Buffalo has shown its willingness to concede running-game production by playing fewer than eight box defenders on 99% of their defensive snaps. This simply isn’t a defense you want to start fantasy quarterbacks against. … Predictably ineffective, Kalen Ballage pathetically turned 24 touches into just 45 scoreless yards in Week 10’s win over the Colts with Patrick Laird (four touches) and Myles Gaskin (one touch) a distant next in line. The good news is Buffalo intentionally plays soft run defense; McDermott’s team has yielded 4.76 yards per carry and nine TDs in nine games to enemy backs. The bad news is optimism is tough to come by for the individual characters that make up Miami’s post-Kenyan Drake and post-Mark Walton backfield.
Fitzpatrick’s 2019 target distribution: DeVante Parker 46; Mike Gesicki 27; Allen Hurns 16; Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson 15; Ballage 12; Laird 2. … Parker might be the most-underrated player in all of fantasy, but his Week 11 matchup couldn’t get tougher against lockdown Bills CB Tre’Davious White, who held Odell Beckham to 57 scoreless yards on 12 targets last week and last allowed a touchdown pass in Week 14 of the 2018 season. Parker is a low-floor WR3 play versus Buffalo. … Gesicki is a fade-matchup Week 11 option, ranking top five among NFL tight ends in Air Yards (144) over the last three weeks and drawing over five targets per game since Miami’s Week 5 bye. No tight end has cleared 50 yards against the Bills this year. … Fantasy investments into Dolphins pass catchers behind Parker and Gesicki haven’t been fun, but for long-shot seekers their routes run are relevant. Here’s how they went in Week 10: Parker 39; Hurns 37; Gesicki 29; Wilson 23; Durham Smythe 10; Grant 7; Clive Walford 5.
Score Prediction: Bills 23, Dolphins 13
Jets at Redskins
Team Totals: Redskins 20, Jets 19
Sam Darnold busted his three-game slump somewhat in last Sunday’s shootout win over the Giants, tallying his second-highest yards per attempt (7.7) and passer rating (97.9) of the season en route to Week 10’s QB7 result. As Washington ranks bottom ten in sacks (21) and bottom three in QB hits (41), Darnold should see fewer ghosts than usual in D.C. Darnold’s supporting cast and to-date performance don’t warrant confident QB1 treatment, but he’s a passable streamer in season-long leagues. … After toughing out his knee ailment to exceed 20 touches for the second straight game, Le’Veon Bell catches a Redskins defense that has allowed the NFL’s seventh-most running back catches (55) and a whopping 33.7 touches per game to enemy backs, setting up Le’Veon for another high-volume effort. Bell is averaging 4.9 receptions per game, settling in as a low-end RB1 whose main obstacle is his own offense.
Darnold’s 2019 target distribution: Jamison Crowder 51; Robby Anderson 36; Le’Veon 32; Demaryius Thomas 30; Ryan Griffin 22; Ty Montgomery 4; Chris Herndon 2. … Darnold’s most-trusted weapon, Crowder has logged consecutive stat lines of 8/83/1 and 5/81/1 and now encounters a Skins secondary that’s coughed up 51 catches on 60 slot targets (85%) for 531 yards (8.85 YPA) and four TDs. Crowder runs 74% of his routes inside. This is a revenge game for Crowder, who spent his first four NFL seasons in Washington. … Anderson has been among fantasy’s most frustrating receivers with fewer than 45 yards in 7-of-9 games. As fellow burner WRs DeSean Jackson (8/154/2), Stefon Diggs (7/143/0), John Brown (4/76/0), Taylor Gabriel (6/75/3), Devin Smith (3/74/1), Amari Cooper (4/44/1), and DeVante Parker (3/28/1) have all met or beaten expectations against Washington, Anderson remains a tempting if low-floor WR3/flex. … Thomas has emerged as a legitimate possession-receiver factor for the Jets but remains scoreless on the year and has cleared 65 yards once in seven appearances. Even against the Skins, Thomas is a low-ceiling WR4. … Herndon is out indefinitely with broken ribs, thrusting Griffin back into Gang Green’s full-time tight end role. Playing 94% of Gang Green’s Weeks 8-9 offensive snaps, Griffin turned 12 targets into a combined 10/116/2 receiving line against the Jaguars and Dolphins. As a full-time player in a favorable spot, Griffin warrants legitimate Week 11 streamer consideration in D.C.
Back from Week 10’s bye with their season already down the drain, the Skins will trot back out unready Dwayne Haskins after he failed to lead a single touchdown drive and took four sacks on 26 dropbacks in Washington’s pre-bye loss to Buffalo. Even as the Jets offer a friendlier matchup, DC Gregg Williams will certainly design blitz schemes to confuse the Redskins’ wide-eyed rookie. The Jets’ D/ST is a better one-for-one play than Haskins, who is at best a desperation two-QB-league option. … Derrius Guice’s (knee) return from I.R. muddles Washington’s backfield with Adrian Peterson having earned a committee role at worst with averages of 112.5 yards from scrimmage and 5.11 yards per carry over the Redskins’ past four games. It doesn’t help that Williams’ defense has stymied enemy backs for 201/605/8 rushing (3.01 YPC). This backfield looks like a full-on Week 11 fade.
Update: On Thursday, coach Bill Callahan indeed announced he plans to start Adrian Peterson over Derrius Guice going forward.
Haskins’ 2019 target distribution: Paul Richardson 9; Terry McLaurin 7; Trey Quinn and Jeremy Sprinkle 5; Kelvin Harmon 4; Thompson, A.P., and Wendell Smallwood 3; Vernon Davis 2. … Even as Haskins’ most-targeted player in a plus draw, Richardson is always tough to back beyond desperate bye-week WR4 scenarios with a measly 47/501/4 receiving line through 16 games as a Redskin. Richardson (hamstring) was ruled out on Friday. … As college teammates, McLaurin’s multi-year rapport with Haskins should eventually reveal itself in weekly box scores. This is a great opportunity to start against a flammable Jets secondary that got cooked by fellow perimeter WRs Darius Slayton (10/121/2), Chris Conley (4/103/1), D.J. Chark (6/79/1), Preston Williams (5/72/2), DeVante Parker (4/57/1), and Phillip Dorsett (3/46/1) in its last four games. While his floor is never safe, McLaurin’s ceiling is sky high based on his talent and optimal Week 11 draw. Also popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Buy Low Model, McLaurin is an exciting DFS-tournament play sure to attract low ownership. … Held under 40 yards in all nine games, Quinn’s usage has trended downward over the course of the year. … Sprinkle is scoreless on the season without a single 25-yard game, while 35-year-old Davis has been sidelined since Week 4 with a concussion.
Score Prediction: Jets 23, Redskins 17
Cowboys at Lions
Team Totals: Cowboys 27, Lions 20
The Cowboys visit Detroit coming off a nail-biting 28-24 Sunday night loss to Minnesota caused largely by Dallas’ play-calling stubbornness. Facing a Mike Zimmer defense that sold out to erase Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas averaged a pathetic 2.4 yards per carry on 16 first-down runs compared to 8.3 YPA on 14 first-down passes. Clearly usurping Zeke as the strength of OC Kellen Moore’s offense, Dak Prescott’s hot streak should nevertheless continue inside Ford Field’s dome. The Lions have served up top-12 fantasy scores to 8-of-9 quarterbacks faced, while Dak has finished QB13 or better in 8-of-9 starts with seven top-eight results. Prescott is a locked-in season-long starter with ample DFS appeal in Amari Cooper stacks. Per Sports Info Solutions, Cooper has scored five of his seven touchdowns against man coverage this season, while his share of Dallas’ passing-game targets spikes from 20% versus zone to 31% versus man. The Lions play man coverage at the NFL’s second-highest rate. … Week 10’s run struggles won’t turn Dallas away from Zeke, who faces a Lions defense enemy backs have gutted for 220/977/9 (4.44 YPC) rushing, the NFL’s third-most receiving yards (535), and 14 TDs in nine games. While it’s likely true that Elliott lacks his yesteryear burst and acceleration following 2019’s holdout, it’s also true that opportunity matters more at running back than talent in fantasy, and Elliott won’t stop getting fed.
Dak’s post-bye target distribution: Amari Cooper 21; Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb 16; Jason Witten 14; Blake Jarwin 5; Elliott and Tony Pollard 3. … Cooper is a shoo-in WR1 against a Detroit secondary surrendering the NFL’s tenth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Obviously playing hurt, Lions top CB Darius Slay has been burned for 249 yards on 28 targets (8.9 YPA) this season and isn’t a cornerback to fear. Cooper is a top-three WR1 across formats. … Stefon Diggs (7/142/0), Larry Fitzgerald (8/113/1), Keenan Allen (8/98/0), Allen Robinson (6/86/0), Golden Tate (8/85/0), Mike Williams (3/83/0), Allen Lazard (4/65/1), Mack Hollins (4/62/0), Hunter Renfrow (6/54/1), Nelson Agholor (8/50/2), Darius Slayton (2/50/2), Bisi Johnson (4/40/1), and Taylor Gabriel (4/39/1) have exposed the weaknesses in Detroit’s secondary, many as non-No. 1 receivers much like Gallup. Averaging eight targets per game with end-zone trips in consecutive weeks, Gallup has earned WR2/3 treatment in plus draws such as this. … Cobb cleared 70 yards for the first time in 16 games during last week’s loss to Minnesota, looking as healthy as ever en route to a 6/106/1 receiving line on multiple highlight-reel catches. That game earned Cobb fringe WR3/flex discussion against the Lions, who have conceded 71 completions on 107 slot targets (66.4%) for 823 yards (7.7 YPA) and ten touchdowns. … Witten and Jarwin’s tendency to cancel each other out puts Witten on the streaming backburner regardless of Dallas’ opponents. Witten is scoreless since Week 2, while the Lions rank 18th in receptions allowed to tight ends (39).
The Lions will start Jeff Driskel again with Matthew Stafford (back) still on the mend after Driskel acquitted himself reasonably well in last week’s 20-13 loss at Soldier Field. Driskel used his 4.56 speed for 37 yards on five scrambles, hit Kenny Golladay deep down the sideline for a 47-yard score, and earned a Week 11 two-quarterback-league start after finishing as Week 10’s fantasy QB11. Three of the last four signal callers to face Dallas logged top-12 results. … Assuming Ty Johnson (concussion) can’t get cleared by Sunday, the Lions’ backfield would be reduced to J.D. McKissic and Paul Perkins after McKissic handled season highs in snaps (70%), touches (16), and targets (7) following Johnson’s Week 10 early exit. A longtime favorite of OC Darrell Bevell after the two spent time together in Seattle, McKissic is a spitting image of ex-Lions RB Theo Riddick as an inefficient between-the-tackles runner who shines in the passing game and – also like Riddick – has experience at wide receiver. The Cowboys happen to have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most catches to running backs, positioning McKissic to be an underrated RB2 if Johnson can’t make it back with PPR-specific flex viability regardless of his teammate’s status.
Driskel’s Week 10 target distribution: Golladay 9; Danny Amendola 8; McKissic 7; Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson 6; Logan Thomas 2; Johnson, Perkins, and Jesse James 1. … Golladay enters Week 11 with 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 7-of-10 games to face a Cowboys secondary with plus-sized corners in Byron Jones and Chidobe Awuzie well equipped to deal with Golladay’s physical strengths. Only the Patriots have allowed fewer fantasy points to wide receivers than Dallas, which took care of fellow top perimeter WRs Stefon Diggs (3/49/0), Alshon Jeffery (2/38/0), and Darius Slayton (1/6/0) over its last three games. With Driskel quarterbacking, Golladay is a fade-matchup WR2 gamble whose floor is lower than usual this week. … Scoreless since Week 1, Amendola has finished below 40 yards in 5-of-8 appearances. He is especially affected by Driskel’s accuracy downgrade from Stafford. … Jones’ Week 10 box-score result (5/77/0) was refreshingly useful against an overrated Bears secondary. Like Golladay, Jones’ Week 11 floor is lower in a tougher draw versus Dallas. He’s a fringe WR3/flex option. Just three individual receivers have cleared 75 yards against the Cowboys’ zone defense this season. … Hockenson’s fantasy trust factor is low with Driskel at quarterback and little production since Week 1, but he’s drawn 13 targets over the last two weeks and has the best Week 11 on-paper matchup in Detroit’s pass-catcher corps. When targeting tight ends, Cowboys opponents are 54-of-73 passing (74%) for 531 yards (7.3 YPA) and five touchdowns. Hockenson is an unsafe, matchup-based TE1 streamer.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Lions 20
Jaguars at Colts
Team Totals: Colts 23.5, Jaguars 20.5
The Jaguars return from their bye with Nick Foles reinstalled at quarterback for a critical division game at Lucas Oil Stadium to face Indianapolis’ smothering zone coverage, which has held enemy passers to the NFL’s ninth-fewest fantasy points per game. A high-variance passer with a lengthy track record of high highs but low lows, Foles is a poor Week 11 fantasy bet considering his matchup and probable rust after a nearly three-month layoff. Foles’ passing-game strength is downfield aggressiveness, yet Colts DC Matt Eberflus’ defense has allowed the NFL’s eighth-fewest completions of 20-plus yards (26). Only two-QB-league playable in his first game back, Foles should become a streaming factor down the line. The Jags face the Bucs, Raiders, and Falcons before Week 17. … Fresh legged off Week 10’s bye, Leonard Fournette will serve as Jacksonville’s offensive engine against Indy’s lightweight defensive front, which has surrendered a middling 181/736/3 (4.07 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs. With 20-plus touches in six of his last seven games, Fournette’s RB1 stock is indisputable despite poor to-date touchdown luck. In all likelihood, positive-TD regression will soon smack Fournette in the mouth with a multi-score week.
Jacksonville comes off its open date with its passing game nearly at full strength. Dede Westbrook draws its best Week 11 on-paper matchup against a Colts zone willing to concede catches in the slot, where its opponents are a combined 52-of-67 passing (78%). A passable PPR-specific WR3 option, Westbrook’s big plays should rise going from Gardner Minshew to more-aggressive Foles. … Since target and “chemistry” data is limited by Foles’ Week 1 injury, D.J. Chark and Chris Conley’s outlooks are up in the air until we get some tangible results to work with. Foles did connect twice with Chark in Week 1 for 42 yards and a touchdown. Chark’s big-play ability and voluminous Air Yards role keep him firmly in WR3 contention with WR2 upside despite this week’s unideal matchup. … Conley spent time with Foles in Kansas City and is worth rostering as a WR4/5 in season-long leagues with big-play ability in an offense now quarterbacked by a big-play passer. … Rookie TE Josh Oliver set season highs in playing time (46%) and routes run (29) in Jacksonville’s pre-bye London loss to Houston, while Seth DeValve (52%, 25) parlayed five targets into a year-best 4/41/0 receiving line. For now, this looks to be a near-even timeshare with some potential for one of the Jags’ tight ends to emerge as a stretch-run streamer.
Jacoby Brissett (knee) will return following Brian Hoyer’s abominable display against the Dolphins, a big lift for the Colts but not necessarily exciting in fantasy. Passing-game difference maker T.Y. Hilton (calf) still isn’t back, and Jacksonville’s run-funnel defense has surrendered just 13 touchdown passes in nine games. Only three of the last eight quarterbacks to face the Jags have top-18 fantasy scores, while DC Todd Wash’s rested defensive front ranks top five in sack rate (9%) and top two in QB Hit Rate (19.2%). At best, Brissett is a two-quarterback-league play. … Much weaker in run defense, the Jaguars have been tagged by enemy backs for 179/894/6 (4.99 YPC) rushing, setting up Marlon Mack to bust his two-game slump. Mack’s lack of passing-game usage continues to frustrate, but he’s handled 20-plus touches in 7-of-9 games and is positioned for RB1/2 production as a home-favorite feature back in a favorable draw.
Injuries have removed virtually all rhythm, rhyme, and continuity from Indy’s passing game, which is already limited by Frank Reich’s balanced to run-first approach. So let’s try to establish an opportunity foundation. This is how Week 10 routes were distributed among all Colts pass catchers: Zach Pascal 41; Marcus Johnson 36; Eric Ebron 33; Jack Doyle 22; Chester Rogers 18. … Even as a dud in last week’s loss to Miami, Pascal maintained No. 1 wideout status via his routes run, playing time (99%), targets (7), and Air Yards (85), which led all Colts wide receivers. Before Brissett went down, Pascal had tallied 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four of his previous six games. He’s the Colts’ lone fantasy-viable wideout versus Jacksonville. … Johnson’s Week 10 involvement is a testament to Indianapolis’ wide receiver darkness. Promoted off the practice squad the day before last week’s game, Johnson operated as the Colts’ No. 2 behind Pascal, played 80% of the offensive snaps, and managed nine yards on three targets. … Ebron’s pre-Week 10 closed-doors meeting with Reich apparently paid off. Ebron led the Colts in targets (12) and Air Yards (134) on season highs in snaps (61%) and routes run (33), only to have a first-drive would-be touchdown torn out of his hands and finish with 56 scoreless yards. Nevertheless, Ebron is positioned to rebound based on his extreme opportunity as an upside TE1. The Colts need Ebron’s production more than ever due to their wide receiver dearth, while teams are 33-of-51 passing for 393 yards (7.71 YPC) and five touchdowns when targeting tight ends against the Jaguars. … Doyle has a stable role in the Colts’ offense but lacks any hint of fantasy upside week to week, especially with Ebron now needing to be featured and Doyle to help block Jacksonville’s nasty front. … Devin Funchess is eligible for Week 11 activation, but he indicated Thursday his broken collarbone still hasn’t healed.
Score Prediction: Colts 21, Jaguars 20
Saints at Bucs
Team Totals: Saints 28.5, Bucs 22.5
Caught post-bye sleepwalking in last week’s home loss to Atlanta, the Saints should rebound in Sunday’s trip to Tampa Bay. By far the NFL’s most pass-funnel defense, the Bucs have buoyed high fantasy floors by surrendering top-15 finishes to seven straight quarterbacks, including top-four outcomes to Daniel Jones (QB2), Jared Goff (QB4), Teddy Bridgewater (QB4), Russell Wilson (QB1), and Kyler Murray (QB4) during that span. In this high-totaled potential shootout, Drew Brees-to-Michael Thomas stacks warrant popular DFS ownership. Even in an outdoor road game where his track record isn’t the best, Brees should be viewed as a high-floor, high-ceiling QB1 play. Brees leads the NFL in passer rating when blitzed (130.9), while Tampa Bay blitzes at the NFL’s highest rate (52%). … Saints skill players were Week 10 failures largely because they rarely had the ball. New Orleans was clocked 34-to-26 by Atlanta in time of possession, a blip unlikely to repeat itself since Sean Payton’s team ranks No. 4 in possession time over the course of the year. Alvin Kamara’s deployment was more promising than his box-score results with a season-high 45 routes run, 79% playing-time clip, and ten targets, all representative of high-end PPR RB1 usage. While Latavius Murray earned a bigger workload in games where New Orleans is nursing a lead, Kamara is the Saints’ obvious go-to back in neutral- and comeback-script scenarios. Kamara should also dominate work when the Saints face run-tough defenses like the Bucs. Kamara remains a locked-in RB1 and Murray a touchdown-reliant flex play at Tampa Bay.
Brees’ 2019 target distribution: Michael Thomas 39; Kamara 18; Murray 17; Jared Cook 15; Ted Ginn 13; Taysom Hill and Josh Hill 6; Tre’Quan Smith 5. … This is an obvious destruction spot for Thomas, who is on pace to break Marvin Harrison’s single-season catches record and teed off on the Bucs for 11/182/2 in Week 5. The Bucs are so discombobulated in the secondary they cut CB Vernon Hargreaves even after losing slot CB M.J. Stewart to a 3-4 week knee injury. … Evan Engram (6/113/1), Jonnu Smith (6/78/1), Greg Olsen (6/110/0, 4/52/0), George Kittle (8/54/0), Gerald Everett (5/44/1), Anthony Firkser (3/43/0), Cook himself (4/41/1), Tyler Higbee (4/41/0), Josh Hill (3/39/0), and Jacob Hollister (4/37/2) have all met or beaten PPR expectations versus the Bucs. With 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in three straight games, Cook should be locked back into fantasy lineups as an undisputed TE1 whose outlook is enhanced by Sunday’s premium draw. … For sleeper seekers, this is how Saints pass-catcher routes run worked out in Week 10’s post-bye loss to the Falcons: Thomas 50; Smith 43; Ginn 40; Cook 39; Hill 13. While New Orleans’ target allocation is clearly narrow with Thomas, Kamara, and Cook in alpha roles, deep leaguers may want to take a stab on Smith, who played a year-high 83% of New Orleans’ Week 10 snaps and has big-play potential with 4.49 speed.
Jameis Winston is a compelling Week 11 DFS-tournament play facing a Saints defense without Mike Evans kryptonite CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) that’s more often than not allowed high-floor games with top-15 fantasy results permitted to 6-of-9 quarterbacks faced. Beginning with most recent, Winston’s last three finishes against Saints DC Dennis Allen’s unit are QB14 > QB10 > QB3, never with the benefit of Lattimore missing. … Ronald Jones kept Week 10 lead back duties with 19 touches plus season highs in targets (8), routes run (24), and receiving production (8/77/0), yet Peyton Barber touched the ball 12 times and vultured a fourth-quarter goal-line score, while Dare Ogunbowale siphoned a 27% playing-time clip. Jones lost an un-touched fourth-quarter fumble that may jeopardize his job security. Even as he’s probably still Tampa’s lead back, Jones remains entrenched in a committee and now faces a stout Saints defense that’s limited enemy backs to 161/604/3 (3.75 YPC) rushing and the NFL’s sixth-fewest receiving yards (278). The Bucs’ backfield looks like a Week 11 fade.
Update: On Wednesday, coach Bruce Arians indicated Ronald Jones‘ fumble is forgiven and his passing-game role will continue to increase. “His route tree is growing,” Arians said. While it’s reasonable to remain skeptical of Jones against this particular opponent, lead rushing duties combined with significant receiving usage would give Jones a shot at matchup-proof fantasy value.
Winston’s Week 10 target distribution: Chris Godwin 12; Jones 8; O.J. Howard 7; Mike Evans 6; Breshad Perriman 4; Ogunbowale and Scotty Miller 3; Barber 1. … Held scoreless and under 75 yards in three straight games, this is a breakout spot for Godwin, who ethered New Orleans for 7/125/2 receiving in Week 5 and is averaging 10.7 targets over his last six games. Saints slot CB P.J. Williams is giving up 8.5 yards per target. … Howard established 2019 season highs in snaps (99%), routes run (47), targets (7), and receiving results (4/47/1) against Arizona. While the Saints haven’t been generous to tight ends, that level of usage is extremely profitable over time, regardless of matchups. Albeit with a concerning floor, Howard is right back in the low-end TE1 mix. … Sans Lattimore, my guess is we’ll see Williams kick outside opposite Eli Apple with rookie Chauncey Gardner-Johnson taking over in the slot. With 80-plus yards and/or a TD in six of his last seven games, Evans is a guy to bet on in scenarios like this. … Perriman ran a season-high 46 routes in last week’s win but took a backseat as Tampa Bay’s No. 5 pass option behind Godwin, Jones, Howard, and Evans. Perriman is always a desperate dart-throw WR4.
Score Prediction: Saints 28, Bucs 24
Cardinals at 49ers
Team Totals: 49ers 28.5, Cardinals 17
The Cardinals visit San Francisco with the Niners in a sneaky-vulnerable spot as Kyle Shanahan’s team comes off a Monday night division loss to Seattle wherein DC Robert Saleh’s defense took the field for a year-high 78 snaps and lost critical nickel rusher Ronald Blair (ACL) one week after MLB Kwon Alexander (pec) hit I.R. Even without Week 10 superstar Christian Kirk, Kyler Murray carved Saleh’s defense for Week 9’s QB8 finish and has four top-seven fantasy scores over his last six starts. With Arizona’s offense at full strength facing a short-rest 49ers defense, Murray is a high-floor, underrated-ceiling Week 11 play with top-15 scores in 7-of-10 starts. … For good reason, Kliff Kingsbury indicated Kenyan Drake will remain Arizona’s lead back over David Johnson after Drake handled 16 touches on 64% of the Cardinals’ Week 10 snaps versus Johnson’s six ineffective opportunities on a 43% playing-time clip. As Chase Edmonds (hamstring) won’t return before Arizona’s Week 12 bye and Johnson has been moving in slow motion on tape, Drake is the Cardinals’ lone fantasy-viable back against the 49ers. Particularly without Alexander, San Francisco showed vulnerability by yielding a 122/602/3 (4.93 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs over its last six games. Drake is a passable RB2 play, and Johnson is a low-floor flex.
Update: Reports from Cardinals practice strongly indicated Kenyan Drake has bypassed David Johnson as Arizona’s No. 1 back. While Drake has emerged as a confident RB2 play, Johnson’s stock has fallen into high-risk flex territory.
Murray’s Week 10 target distribution: Christian Kirk 10; Larry Fitzgerald 8; Drake 7; Pharoh Cooper 5; KeeSean Johnson 4; Andy Isabella 3; Trent Sherfield 2; David Johnson and Charles Clay 1. … Kirk has emerged as Arizona’s top perimeter wideout with dominant team leads in targets (15) and Air Yards (217) over the Cardinals’ last two games. Kirk’s Week 11 bad news is San Francisco has yielded a league-low 17 completions of 20-plus yards. Kirk’s good news is opportunity matters more than matchups, and he projects as an upside WR2/3 in a defined role going forward. … Whereas Kirk’s Weeks 9-10 aDOT is 14.5 yards, Fitzgerald’s is a measly 5.3 as Arizona’s short-area possession receiver. Fitzgerald is a low-ceiling, PPR-specific WR3 each week. … Cooper ran a season-high 16 routes in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay, while TEs Clay (20 routes) and Maxx Williams (11) essentially shared time. They are all sub-package non-factors in fantasy. … KeeSean Johnson drew four Week 10 targets on 51% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps and still hasn’t cleared 25 yards since Week 2. … Isabella does appear to be gaining legitimate ground. He logged Week 10 season highs in playing time (39%), routes run (18), and targets (3), and has now turned four targets into four catches for 166 yards and a touchdown over his last two games. With Fitz inside, Kirk and Isabella could form a potentially dynamic duo out wide for Arizona.
After turning in one of his worst 2019 performances in last Monday night’s loss to the Seahawks, Jimmy Garoppolo matches back up with an Arizona defense against which he turned in one of his best in Week 9, spraying Cardinals DC Vance Joseph’s unit for year highs in yards (317), touchdowns (4), completions (28), and passer rating (136.9) in a thrilling 28-25 win. Unfortunately, Week 11’s 49ers are not nearly the same team missing TE George Kittle (knee/ankle), LT Joe Staley (finger), RB Matt Breida (ankle), and potentially Emmanuel Sanders (ribs). Jimmy G is a fine two-QB-league start, but his sudden shortage of surrounding talent is a concern for Garoppolo’s streamer upside. Missing Kittle and Sanders in last week’s second half, Jimmy G went 12-of-26 passing with zero touchdowns and a pick. … Breida’s 1-2 game absence solidifies Tevin Coleman atop San Francisco’s backfield versus a Cardinals defense against which enemy backs are averaging 32.1 touches, a crisp 4.31 yards per carry, and 5.4 catches per game. Arizona did bottle up Coleman for 36 scoreless yards on 14 touches in Week 9, but Coleman is an easy bounce-back candidate as a two-plus-score home favorite with enhanced opportunity. For whatever it’s worth, Coleman has averaged 6.72 yards per carry with five touchdowns in three home games this year compared to 2.73 YPC with one score in four games on the road. I like Coleman as an RB2 with RB1 upside and as a DFS-tournament play. … Raheem Mostert should take Breida’s place in the rotation, which meant 13.5 touches per game since Coleman returned from his high ankle sprain in Week 5. Breida’s absence could also mean the reappearance of goal-line vulture Jeffrey Wilson, however, which would cut into the entire offense’s touchdown potential. Nevertheless, this week’s favorable matchup and environment give Mostert one-off flex viability as a versatile and explosive 1b back to Coleman’s 1a.
Jimmy G’s Week 10 target distribution: Deebo Samuel 11; Kendrick Bourne 8; Ross Dwelley 7; Coleman and Sanders 4; Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis 3; Breida 2; Mostert and Kyle Jusczcyk 1. … With Kittle all but ruled out and Sanders not far behind, Samuel projects as San Francisco’s No. 1 wideout in a plum spot. Cards top CB Patrick Peterson is nursing a calf injury and has been ineffective since returning from suspension – his YPA when targeted is 11.8 with two touchdowns allowed in four games – while Samuel leads San Francisco in red-zone targets (10), including 5 in the last three weeks. Per Sports Info Solutions, Arizona has allowed a league-high 17 red-zone TDs on the year. The Cards have also conceded league highs in catches (123), yards (1,523), and TDs (12) to slot receivers, where Samuel plays 63% of his snaps. … San Francisco’s Week 10 route distribution with Kittle inactive and Sanders leaving early: Samuel 45; Dwelley 43; Bourne 41; Pettis 26; Juszczyk 12; Goodwin 6. … Bourne committed two ugly drops in last week’s loss to Seattle, but Shanahan gave him a post-game vote of confidence, and Bourne looks likely to be a full-time player in this favorable spot. He’s worth a plug-and-play WR3/flex start for PPR leaguers in bye-week binds. … Dwelley stepped right into Kittle’s Week 10 role, drawing seven looks on 92% of the snaps. Albeit limited talent wise, Dwelley’s Week 11 opportunity and matchup give him strong streamer appeal considering Arizona has allowed the NFL’s most fantasy points to tight ends.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Cardinals 21
Patriots at Eagles
Team Totals: Patriots 24, Eagles 20.5
The Patriots come off their bye to face an Eagles defense that’s buoyed fantasy floors by permitting top-14 results to 6-of-9 quarterbacks faced, including top-eight outcomes to Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Case Keenum. As no team is better at attacking opponent weaknesses and circumventing strengths than the Patriots, this sets up as a high-volume game for Tom Brady, who has likewise been a high-floor, high-ceiling scorer for the most part with top-14 finishes in 6-of-9 starts, including four top-seven QB1 weeks. At very least, Brady is a rock-solid season-long play in this possible shootout. In DFS stacks, Brady correlates especially positively with James White and Julian Edelman. … Sony Michel is a Week 11 fade facing a Philly run defense that’s bottled up enemy backs for 173/582/6 (3.36 YPC) rushing. … Even as a healthy Rex Burkhead always complicates Patriots backfield matters – Rex siphoned five touches on 36% of New England’s pre-bye Week 9 offensive snaps – Burkhead himself is not individually fantasy playable, yet White is with double-digit touches in four of the Patriots’ last five games. The Eagles’ defense eliminates ground attacks but has yielded nearly six running back catches per game. White is on pace for career highs in receptions (88) and receiving yards (808) this season.
Brady’s target distribution: Edelman 90; White 54; Phillip Dorsett 36; Burkhead 20; Mohamed Sanu 19; Jakobi Meyers 16; Michel and Ben Watson 11; Brandon Bolden 10. … Week 10’s bye gave Edelman time to recuperate from his first-half rib ailment, an injury that hindered Edelman more than publicly known. Edelman remains on pace for career highs in targets (160), catches (112), and TDs (7.1) and should tee off on Philly’s matador pass coverage. Per Sports Info Solutions, Edelman’s 12 red-zone targets since Week 7 lead the league. Tyler Lockett is a distant second with eight during that span. … As New England’s main perimeter receiver, Dorsett offers spiked-week potential against an Eagles secondary that has coughed up seven 100-plus-yard wideout efforts in nine games. Davante Adams (10/180/0), Stefon Diggs (7/167/3), Terry McLaurin (5/125/1), Julio Jones (5/106/2), Amari Cooper (5/106/0), Calvin Ridley (8/105/1), Marvin Jones (6/101/1), Taylor Gabriel (3/69/0), Adam Thielen (6/57/1), and Cole Beasley (3/41/1) have smashed Philly’s backend. Dorsett is a boom-bust WR3/flex option. … Sanu graduated to full-time usage in New England’s pre-bye loss to the Ravens, playing 100% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps and pacing the team in targets (14). Especially in PPR leagues, Sanu should be locked into season-long lineups as a WR3 with WR2 upside. He’s already earned his way into Brady’s circle of trust. … Meyers played just one snap in Week 9 against the Ravens. … Watson played 100% of New England’s Week 9 snaps, running a season-high 40 routes and equaling his year high in targets (5). Watson is an underrated streamer in this potentially high-scoring game. … Patriots first-round pick N’Keal Harry should make his NFL debut in Philly. He’s worth a deep-league add.
Update: Jordan Howard (questionable, stinger) appears unlikely to face New England, thrusting Miles Sanders into Philly’s featured role with Boston Scott and newly-signed Jay Ajayi backing him up. The Eagles placed Darren Sproles (hip) on I.R. The Patriots have struggled in run defense lately and lack speed at linebacker to handle Sanders, who shined in the passing game on downfield routes early in his rookie year. While Sanders amounts to a legitimate season-long and DFS play — Sanders is especially underpriced on Draft Kings — Scott is a sleeper for double-digit touches for fantasy leaguers in bye-week binds. I’m not overly optimistic about Ajayi’s long-term fantasy value in Philly since Howard’s injury seems short term in nature.
Fresh off their own bye, the Eagles have settled in as a “balanced” offensive team with Jordan Howard near the forefront after Howard commanded 16.8 touches over Philly’s six pre-bye games, averaging 79.3 total yards and one touchdown in that span. New England’s defensive deficiency has been exposed, clocked by enemy backs for 112/591/1 (5.28 YPC) rushing over its last six games. Howard’s floor is low with an average of barely one catch per game and high touchdown dependency, but Howard’s workload should be bankable as a season-long RB2 in a beatable matchup at home. … Miles Sanders has given Doug Pederson’s team sporadic big-play sparks – Sanders’ 6.5 yards-per-touch average is superior to Alvin Kamara’s 6.4 lifetime mark – but Sanders has reached 50% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps in 1-of-9 games and will continue to struggle to get there with Darren Sproles’ health back in order. As Sanders’ primary box-score contributions come as a receiver and New England has allowed the NFL’s third-fewest running back receiving yards per game (30.8), Sanders is a high-volatility flex option. … Coming off three straight fantasy results of QB18 or worse, Carson Wentz is an on-the-fence season-long starter whose outlook is enhanced by this game’s shootout potential. Wentz has just five top-12 fantasy scores in nine 2019 starts, however, and no team has allowed fewer fantasy quarterback points than New England.
Wentz’s 2019 target distribution: Zach Ertz 71; Nelson Agholor 55; Alshon Jeffery 53; Dallas Goedert 31; Sanders 25; Mack Hollins 21; Howard 14; Sproles 10; J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 7. … Ertz is an every-week starter with a league-high 74 targets at his position, but Ertz’s Week 11 matchup will be a tough test. Patriots TE stopper Pat Chung has permitted 130 scoreless yards on 18 targets (7.2 YPA) this year, while New England has allowed the AFC’s fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Ertz is a fade-matchup, bet-on-talent TE1. … Agholor made a handful of big early-season plays but is difficult to take seriously with just one game above 50 yards in nine tries. … Jeffery is the Eagles’ likeliest candidate to command Stephon Gilmore’s coverage. Jeffery’s agility and body control have appeared to take sizable 2019 steps back, while Gilmore hasn’t conceded a touchdown pass since last Week 14. Jeffery is a low-floor WR3 option. … With DeSean Jackson (sports hernia) shelved for the year, Goedert is right back in TE1 streamer contention after tallying season highs in playing time (79%) and routes run (30) in Philly’s pre-bye win over the Bears. Goedert has played over 70% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps in four of their last five games and drawn five-plus targets in three of the last four. He’s a full-time player now.
Update: Alshon Jeffery (ankle) won’t play against the Patriots. His direct backup has been J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, who struggled mightily in early-season spot appearances and would draw suffocating perimeter coverage from New England’s lockdown corners. The Eagles’ tight ends and running backs are better Week 11 fantasy targets.
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Patriots 23
Bengals at Raiders
Team Totals: Raiders 29.5, Bengals 19.5
The Raiders’ D/ST is a legitimate Week 11 streamer against soft-tossing rookie Ryan Finley, whose NFL debut elicited few positive takeaways on 5.6 yards per attempt with two turnovers and one touchdown drive versus Baltimore. 7-of-9 defenses to face Cincinnati have logged top-12 fantasy scores, including four top-five results. … Finley remains two-quarterback-league viable based on matchup; six of the last eight signal callers to face Oakland tallied top-15 fantasy outcomes, including five top-six weeks. This game has enough sneaky shootout potential for Finley to offer some semblance of upside against a barely-there Raiders pass rush that ranks bottom ten in sack rate (6%) and bottom four in QB Hit Rate (12.6%). I like that Finley showed a willingness to scramble last week, padding his stats with 22 rushing yards. … As Giovani Bernard avoided this week’s injury report after exiting last Sunday’s loss with what was thought to be a knee sprain, Joe Mixon apparently won’t fall into the full-time bellcow work he might’ve with Bernard out. Mixon handled Week 10 season highs in touches (32) and snaps (75%) against the Ravens but has merely been the lead back in Cincinnati’s RBBC with Gio healthy. The good news is Chargers backs combined to tag the Raiders for 181 total yards and two scores last Thursday night, while Oakland has conceded the league’s seventh-most running back catches (55). The bad news is Mixon remains a risky RB2 play as a multi-score road dog at The Black Hole.
Finley’s Week 10 target distribution: Tyler Boyd 8; Auden Tate 6; Tyler Eifert and Stanley Morgan 4; Mixon 3; Alex Erickson 2; Gio and Drew Sample 1. … By far, Boyd catches the Bengals’ top skill-player matchup at Oakland; slot receivers have rocked the Raiders for 66 grabs on 91 targets (73%), 790 yards (8.7 YPA), and six touchdowns. Boyd ran 80% of his routes in the slot in Finley’s debut, leading the team in Air Yards (65) in addition to targets and receiving (6/62/0) in a far tougher draw against the Ravens. Boyd should also have positive-touchdown regression forthcoming with 38 targets but no scores since Week 5. … Tate came in second in targets and Air Yards (61) in Finley’s first start, and his matchup is ripe against a Raiders defense permitting the NFL’s third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. With A.J. Green (ankle) still shelved, Tate is a sneaky-upside WR3/flex start with Oakland playing musical chairs in its backend. SS Karl Joseph (foot) is out for the season, slot CB Lamarcus Joyner (hamstring) is week to week, and CB Gareon Conley was traded before the deadline. The Raiders were forced to sign burnable S D.J. Swearinger off the street this week. Promisingly, Tate checked in as Week 11’s No. 4 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Eifert made an impressive back-shoulder play on last week’s second-quarter touchdown, but the Bengals significantly scaled back his usage. Eifert’s 12 routes run tied for his season low, and he played just 32% of the snaps. Eifert would be a very low-floor streamer. … Week 10 routes run among Bengals pass catchers: Boyd 35; Tate 33; Erickson 18; Morgan 16; Eifert 12; C.J. Uzomah 8; Sample 2. There is no ancillary fantasy value to be mined from this corps.
Winners of four of their last six with an increasingly defined offensive identity, the power-game Raiders should smash the cross-country-traveling Bengals on the ground. Jon Gruden’s club is more rested than most with an early-season bye under its belt and a mini-bye following last Thursday night’s win over the Chargers. As a two-score home-favorite workhorse back, this is a Josh Jacobs destruction spot facing a Cincinnati defense enemy backs have pounded for 4.79 yards per carry, 29.2 touches per game, and 12 all-purpose TDs. Jacobs and the Raiders’ D/ST correlate especially well for DFS-tournament purposes. … If Derek Carr is ever going to deliver a difference-making fantasy result, this would be the spot facing a road-tripping Cincy team that’s surrendered top-13 quarterback finishes in seven of its last eight games while showing zero pass-rush capability with league lows in sacks (10) and QB hits (30). In DFS, the Raiders warrant team-stack discussion featuring Jacobs, Carr, Darren Waller, and Oakland’s D/ST.
Carr’s 2019 target distribution: Darren Waller 64; Hunter Renfrow 42; Tyrell Williams 39; Jalen Richard 21; Jacobs 20; Foster Moreau 18; DeAndre Washington 13; Derek Carrier 10; Zay Jones 9; Trevor Davis 8. … Held to consecutive receiving lines of 2/11/1 > 2/52/0 > 3/40/0 with defenses selling out to stop him, Waller catches a premium Week 11 bounce-back spot. Ill equipped to handle Waller’s athleticism via the league’s worst linebacker corps, the Bengals have allowed 38 completions on 50 tight end targets (76%) for 509 yards (10.2 YPA) and three TDs. Waller deserves to be among this week’s highest-owned DFS tight ends. … Renfrow has managed target counts of 4 > 7 > 5 over his last three games, playing an expanded role since early in the season but still settling in as a PPR-specific WR4. His matchup is particularly attractive this week, however; per Sports Info Solutions, Cincinnati has given up a 119.5 passer rating on slot targets versus 80.3 to receivers lined up outside. Renfrow plays 98% of his snaps in the slot. … This game sets up well for top vertical threat Williams; Cincinnati allows a league-high 9.0 yards per pass attempt and has surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most 20-plus-yard completions (40) despite facing the league’s third-fewest pass attempts per game (29.2). Williams’ to-date touchdown dependency notwithstanding, he’s an upside WR2 versus Cincy. … This is how routes run were allotted among Raiders pass catchers in Week 10: Williams 30; Jones 29; Waller 28; Renfrow 23; Moreau 7; Carrier 5; Marcell Ateman 3. Jones has 58 scoreless yards to show for his nine targets with the Raiders.
Score Prediction: Raiders 28, Bengals 20
Bears at Rams
Team Totals: Rams 23, Bears 17
Mitchell Trubisky visits L.A. coming off his season-best fantasy finish (QB10) to face a Rams defense that has held 7-of-9 quarterbacks faced to fantasy results of QB15 or worse while allowing the NFL’s ninth-fewest yards per pass attempt (7.1) and touchdown passes (12) and 20 points or fewer in four straight games. With Sean McVay’s offense sputtering, DC Wade Phillips’ unit has quietly become the strength of the Rams’ team. With just the one top-12 QB1 result under his belt – and Jalen Ramsey set to chase top weapon Allen Robinson all over the field – Trubisky is a low-end two-quarterback-league option on Sunday night. … The Bears’ backfield became a stayaway situation when David Montgomery rolled his ankle in Wednesday’s practice and couldn’t go on Thursday. The Rams are stamping out ground attacks this year – holding enemy backs to 215/771/6 (3.59 YPC) rushing and just 36.0 receiving yards per game – while north-south plodder Ryan Nall is an underwhelming alternative in the Bears’ backfield, and Tarik Cohen has accomplished virtually nothing all year. On one-game DFS slates, of course, our approach should be much different. In that format, Nall would become an excellent sleeper if Montgomery does indeed miss, and Cohen’s usage projection could get a sizable bump despite his to-date ineffectiveness.
Trubisky’s 2019 target distribution: Robinson 64; Cohen 43; Taylor Gabriel 31; Anthony Miller 21; Montgomery 19; Trey Burton 17; Adam Shaheen and Cordarrelle Patterson 11; Ben Braunecker and Javon Wims 4. … Whereas Jalen Ramsey never chased No. 1 wideouts into the slot in Jacksonville, Ramsey gained slot experience at Florida State and played a career-high 27 slot snaps in last week’s matchup with JuJu Smith-Schuster. That’s the bad news. The good news for Robinson is Ramsey hasn’t been his usual self this year, permitting 29 completions on 41 targets (71%) for 394 yards (9.6 YPA) and two touchdowns. I’m viewing Robinson as a boom-bust WR3 play in season-long leagues. It helps that Robinson checked in as Week 11’s No. 5 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Week 10 routes run among Bears pass catchers: Robinson and Gabriel 29; Miller 23; Patterson and Burton 10; Braunecker 3; Wims 2. … My favorite one-game DFS-slate sleeper if Montgomery misses is Patterson, who’s capable of handling traditional running back work, offers big-play ability on special teams, and has a defined gadget-guy role as a pass catcher. … Robinson is the Bears’ only true season-long-league consideration here, but Gabriel and to a lesser extent Miller make sense as one-game DFS punts. … Braunecker will take over Chicago’s main tight end duties with Burton (calf) and Shaheen (foot) ruled out. A high-end athlete who’s been given minimal NFL opportunities as a former undrafted free agent, Braunecker is arguably the Bears’ best tight end talent and is another sleeper on Sunday night’s one-game DFS slate. Tight ends opposing the Rams have caught 37-of-48 targets for 414 yards (8.63 YPA) over the last six weeks.
As Jared Goff is among the NFL’s most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks, Los Angeles’ losses of C Brian Allen (MCL) and RT Rob Havenstein (knee) enhance Goff’s risk factor versus the Bears, who’ve allowed one top-12 fantasy score in nine quarterback starts, notably containing Aaron Rodgers (QB23), Kirk Cousins (QB25), Philip Rivers (QB24), and Carson Wentz (QB18). Just 19th among fantasy passers in points per game, Goff is a two-quarterback-league Week 11 start but not a whole lot more. … Chicago got clocked for 115/499/7 (4.34 YPC) rushing by enemy backs over its last five games and the NFL’s fifth-most catches (63) on the year. The Bears’ run defense is further softened by ILB Danny Trevathan’s dislocated elbow. Todd Gurley warrants RB2 treatment on Sunday night with Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown mixing in for change-of-pace touches, but touchdowns will determine their final stock.
Goff’s 2019 target distribution: Cooper Kupp 91; Robert Woods 71; Gerald Everett 56; Gurley 28; Tyler Higbee 27; Josh Reynolds 23; Henderson 6; Brown 3. … Held catch-less in Week 10 by a Steelers game plan designed to take him away, Kupp is a good bet to rebound against burnable Bears slot CB Buster Skrine. In his career, Kupp averages nearly 32 more yards per game at home than on the road. … Woods’ sans-Brandin Cooks opportunity bump contributed to last week’s 7/95/0 receiving line on 11 targets, and Cooks is out again, narrowing Los Angeles’ pass distribution. Chicago’s overrated secondary should be proactively attacked by fantasy leaguers with Kupp as a WR1 and Woods as a high-ceiling WR2. … Reynolds jumped right back into Cooks’ role in last Sunday’s loss to the Steelers, seeing five targets on 95% of the Rams’ offensive snaps. Even as Reynolds is a WR4 in season-long leagues, his one-game DFS appeal is immense as a near-full-time player facing a Bears secondary that’s shown itself time and again to be oversold. … McVay stayed committed to three-receiver 11 personnel in last Sunday’s without-Cooks game, but he also promoted Everett to the main tight end in such packages. Everett’s usage was elite with 12 targets on a 69% snap rate and 35 routes, while Chicago has allowed the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. Everett should be teed up with TE1 confidence.
Score Prediction: Rams 23, Bears 16
Chiefs vs Chargers (Mexico City)
Team Totals: Chiefs 28, Chargers 24
Patrick Mahomes showed minimal aftereffects from his three-week ankle sprain in last Sunday’s return at Nashville, spraying a typically staunch Titans defense for Week 10’s QB3 score on three touchdowns and a season-high 446 yards. In two career meetings with Chargers DC Gus Bradley’s defense, Mahomes is 39-of-61 passing (64%) for 499 yards (8.2 YPA), six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Particularly with his pass-catching arsenal fully at hand, Mahomes is neck and neck with Lamar Jackson as Week 11’s top fantasy quarterback play. … With LeSean McCoy healthy scratched at Tennessee, Damien Williams retook command of Kansas City’s backfield on season highs in routes run (31), playing time (73%), and touches (24) against the Titans, while Darrel Williams (3 touches) and Darwin Thompson (2) took clear backseats. Even as Damien’s first-half lost fumble was returned for a pick six, Andy Reid never wavered feeding his top all-purpose back. Running backs facing the Chargers have averaged a crisp 4.40 yards per carry and 5.5 catches per game, positioning Damien for fringe RB1/2 fantasy treatment and high-end RB1 upside in Kansas City’s high-scoring attack. … On Monday, Reid attributed McCoy’s Week 10 inactivity to the fact that Shady is “not getting any younger,” a kind way of calling McCoy washed up.
Mahomes’ Week 10 target distribution: Tyreek Hill 19; Sammy Watkins 9; Travis Kelce 7; Damien and Demarcus Robinson 5; Darrel, Mecole Hardman, Thompson, and Deon Yelder 1. … Beginning with most recent, Hill’s last four receiving lines against the Chargers are 4/46/0 > 7/169/2 > 5/88/1 > 5/77/1, while Tyreek has shown a high 2019 floor with 80-plus yards and/or a touchdown in five straight games. The owner of Casey Hayward’s on-field soul time and again, Hill is an exciting WR1 play on Monday night. … Watkins checked in as Week 11’s No. 3 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model and has drawn eight-plus targets in 6-of-7 fully-played games. While his ceiling may be limited with Hill, Kelce, and Damien all healthy, Watkins remains a strong WR3 play in this potential track meet. … In a probable small-sample fluke, Kelce’s historical results against the Chargers are worse than any other team on stat lines beginning most recent: 7/61/0 > 1/6/0 > 6/46/0 > 1/1/0 > 1/8/0. Particularly with shutdown S Derwin James (foot, I.R.) out at least two more weeks, this isn’t a matchup to fear for Kelce despite his track record. Last week’s bout with Tennessee was also perceived as difficult, yet Kelce emerged with 7/75/1 receiving and nearly caught an additional 16-yard score only for Hill’s holding penalty to negate it. … Here’s how Chiefs pass-catcher routes were distributed in Mahomes’ Week 10 return: Kelce 48; Hill 44; Watkins 39; Robinson 38; Hardman 16. … Among Kansas City’s ancillary pass catchers, Robinson makes the most sense with a big route-running role and four or more targets in 7-of-10 games. … In fantasy, no player is more big-play reliant than Hardman, who hasn’t topped three targets since Week 6.
The Titans provided a Week 10 template for the Chargers to attack the Chiefs, hammering the ball down Kansas City’s throat with 26 run plays compared to 19 passes. Kansas City’s run-stopping inability is no secret, surrendering a 246/1,245/8 (5.06 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs on the year. Under rookie OC Shane Steichen, Melvin Gordon has emerged as Los Angeles’ offensive focus on touches/yardage/TD counts of 23/109/2 and 23/133/1 over the Chargers’ last two games, regaining every-week RB1 value in season-long leagues. This is a perfect opportunity for the Bolts to ride Gordon hard. … Gordon’s bellcow reemergence hasn’t taken away from Austin Ekeler’s flex viability; Ekeler has 24 touches over L.A.’s last two games and played 45% of last week’s offensive snaps. The Chiefs have allowed the NFL’s second-most running back receiving yards (571), setting up Ekeler for a PPR-friendly performance on Monday night. Ekeler has totaled 80-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-10 games. … This game’s shootout potential suggests Philip Rivers has a shot to beat usual fantasy expectations, yet Rivers hasn’t scored above QB9 all year. The good news is 7-of-10 quarterbacks to face Kansas City have delivered top-12 outcomes, suggesting Rivers is a safe play whose ceiling is raised by this game’s high-scoring potential.
Rivers’ target distribution under Steichen: Hunter Henry 17; Keenan Allen 15; Ekeler and Mike Williams 6; Gordon 5. … Henry is an elite-TE1 monster with 47-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 6-of-6 games, while Kansas City has permitted the NFL’s second-most catches (65) and sixth-most yards (589) to tight ends. Henry has reemerged as an easy top-three play at fantasy’s most-frustrating position. … Popping as Week 11’s No. 2 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model, Allen has double-digit targets in three of his last four games and is primed for positive-TD regression without a pay-dirt trip since Week 3. Allen ranks top eight in the NFL in red-zone targets (12) yet has flukily scored on only two of them. … Williams’ target counts are 3 and 3 since Steichen replaced Ken Whisenhunt calling plays, and his Air Yards (126) during that span are less than both Henry (197) and Allen (175). Williams is viable on one-game DFS slates but difficult to trust as more than a Hail Mary WR3/flex in season-long leagues.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Chargers 24