Select Page

SUBSCRIBER LEAGUE!! ETR is hosting a Week 14 DFS contest at DraftKings. In addition to cash prizes, first prize receives a lineup review from Adam Levitan and 2nd-5th win a limited edition ETR T-shirt. There’s no rake, it’s only $3 to play and 890 spots pay out cash. This will fill before Sunday, sign up here! To see last week’s winners review video, click here.

Legal: Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.
 

 

 

Colts at Bucs
Team Totals: Bucs 25, Colts 22

All but lost without T.Y. Hilton (calf) and more recently Eric Ebron (ankles), Jacoby Brissett enters Week 14 with four straight fantasy scores of QB16 or worse for a nevertheless tempting matchup at Tampa Bay. Nine of the last ten quarterbacks to face the Bucs banked top-15 results, and only two teams have allowed more touchdown passes than Tampa (27). Ultimately, Brissett is a middle- to high-end two-QB-league starter with several conceivable pathways to success and several more to failure. … The Colts’ Week 14 backfield distribution will obviously depend on Marlon Mack’s (hand) health. If he can’t go, we’ll be staring at a potential three-man committee after Jonathan Williams was abruptly benched for Jordan Wilkins last week, Wilkins went on to outplay him and out-touch Williams 13 to 9, and Nyheim Hines remained the Colts’ passing-down back while also vulturing a goal-line score. If Mack does play, he’ll be a risky RB2 against a Bucs front that’s resumed playing lights-out run defense keyed by interior difference makers Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh. If Mack sits, Wilkins will be the best dart-throw flex.

Update: Marlon Mack (hand) is expected to play against the Bucs, but coach Frank Reich indicated Friday that Mack won’t necessarily resume his early-season high-volume role. Based on matchup and Reich’s statements, I’m viewing Mack as a Week 14 flex option rather than locked-in RB2.

Brissett’s Week 13 target distribution: Jack Doyle 11; Zach Pascal 10; Marcus Johnson 6; Jordan Wilkins and Ross Travis 3; Nyheim Hines 2; Jonathan Williams and Ashton Dulin 1. … A predictable monster in Ebron’s first game away, Doyle’s Week 14 matchup is even better against the Bucs, who’ve allowed the NFL’s second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Doyle logged Week 13 season highs in targets, snaps (94%), routes run (40), and production (6/73/1) against Tennessee. … Pascal also capitalized on Hilton and Ebron’s Week 13 absences for a career-high 109 yards and was used in aggressive downfield form with 127 Air Yards, 12th most in the league. Popping in this week’s Buy Low Air Yards Model, Pascal warrants upside WR3 treatment against a Bucs defense permitting the NFL’s most fantasy points to wide receivers. Pascal ran 41% of his Week 13 routes in the slot and drew four of his ten targets there; slot WRs Tyler Lockett (13/152/2), Cooper Kupp (9/121/1), Sterling Shepard (7/100/1), Russell Gage (8/76/0), Larry Fitzgerald (8/71/0), and Dede Westbrook (5/60/1) have ripped up Tampa Bay’s defense. … Johnson served as Indy’s clear No. 2 receiver in last week’s loss to the Titans, running nearly as many routes (40) as Pascal (43) with Dulin a distant third (25). Johnson’s stat lines are 4/55/0 and 4/38/1 in his last two games as a full-time player, giving Johnson deep-league WR4 life in an optimal draw. … Devin Funchess (clavicle) is done for the year, but Parris Campbell is a super-deep sleeper coming back from his gruesome four-week hand fracture. In Campbell’s two starts this year, he caught five balls in each, was used aggressively on the ground, and returned kicks as a player the Colts aimed to feature. On top of Ebron, Hilton, and Funchess, the Colts will be without slot man Chester Rogers (fractured knee).

Jameis Winston’s Week 14 matchup is no cakewalk against Indy’s big-play-preventing zone; 9 of the last 11 quarterbacks to face the Colts have logged fantasy results of QB12 or worse, while Jameis’ struggles versus zone continued in last week’s win over Jacksonville with four sacks absorbed on 37 dropbacks, Winston’s lowest fantasy score (QB24) since Week 1, and his 25th turnover through 12 starts. Still, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and perhaps even O.J. Howard are capable of doing enough individual damage to keep Winston’s box-score outlook afloat as a high-variance season-long QB1 play. … Despite benching Ronald Jones for blowing a first-half blitz pickup in last week’s win, coach Bruce Arians vowed on Wednesday to stay the course with Jones as Tampa Bay’s starting tailback. Indianapolis’ run defense has been all over the place – shutting down enemy backs for 3.40 yards per carry and zero rushing TDs in Weeks 8-12, only to get trampled by Derrick Henry (26/149/1) last Sunday – rendering Jones’ Week 14 matchup difficult to assess. Arians’ commitment to Jones also remains as tenuous as any coach-to-running back’s in the league. All of that makes Jones a boom-bust flex option in a backfield where Peyton Barber and Dare Ogunbowale aren’t going away regardless of Arians’ nominal-starter decree.

Jameis’ Week 13 target distribution: Mike Evans 11; Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and Breshad Perriman 6; Ogunbowale 2; Cameron Brate and Justin Watson 1. … Evans drew eight-plus targets for the sixth time in Tampa Bay’s last seven games in Week 13’s win over Jacksonville and is popping as Week 14’s No. 2 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. Scoreless in four straight despite ranking third in the NFL in targets inside the ten-yard line (10), Evans is also a screaming positive-touchdown-regression candidate. He checks a lot of boxes as a DFS-tournament play. … The Colts’ loss of slot CB Kenny Moore (high ankle sprain) upgrades Godwin’s matchup; Moore allowed just one touchdown pass on 51 targets in Weeks 1-13. Godwin’s week-to-week production has become less stable with Tampa incorporating more ancillary pass catchers like Perriman, Brate sporadically, Scotty Miller previously, and even Howard of late, but this is not the time nor place to shy away from Godwin as a WR2 with WR1 upside. … Howard’s floor is a literal goose egg, but he’s back above 78% of the snaps in consecutive games and turned six targets into five catches for 61 yards in last week’s win, while Indy’s zone defense has yielded the NFL’s ninth-most receptions to tight ends (62). Howard is a classic boom-bust streamer.

Score Prediction: Bucs 27, Colts 23

 

Ravens at Bills
Team Totals: Ravens 24.5, Bills 18.5

As an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, Lamar Jackson visits Buffalo with top-12 fantasy outcomes in 11-of-12 starts to face a Bills defense that has held 10-of-12 quarterbacks faced to scores of QB13 or worse. Jackson is a bet-on-talent play in a wholly unappealing draw; Sean McDermott’s zone defense with highly athletic linebackers will keep constant eyes on Jackson as a runner and has given up the NFL’s third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2). The Ravens are a better team than the Bills, but very few clubs are better equipped to give Baltimore trouble than Buffalo is based on venue and style of play. … It’s no secret by now that McDermott is willing to concede rushing production in exchange for limiting big plays; Buffalo permits the NFL’s tenth-most yards per carry (4.5) but has given up the third-fewest completions of 20-plus yards (25) and the league’s third-fewest points per game (15.7). In other words, we should expect a near-full game from Mark Ingram in a favorable draw at near-neutral script rather than another blowout victory where Ingram takes a late seat in favor of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.

Jackson’s post-bye target distribution: Mark Andrews 24; Marquise Brown 21; Nick Boyle 15; Willie Snead 13; Ingram and Hayden Hurst 10; Seth Roberts and Patrick Ricard 6; Miles Boykin 2. … No team has yielded fewer fantasy points to tight ends than Buffalo, although Jason Witten’s Thanksgiving eatery (6/42/1) against the Bills should instill some confidence in far-more-athletic Andrews against this same defense. A solid-floor, high-ceiling TE1 all year, Andrews has 45-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-12 games. … Brown is less trustworthy based on Buffalo’s schemed big-play disallowance, Tre’Davious White’s probable shadow coverage, and Brown’s low floor. Brown has cleared 50 yards once over his last eight games and concerningly ran just 16 routes in last week’s close bout with San Francisco. … Andrews and Brown continue to be the Ravens’ only pass catchers worth weekly fantasy discussion.

Finally gaining national respect they’ve gotten since preseason here at Establish The Run, the Bills catch their stiffest test against the Ravens following Buffalo’s post-Thanksgiving mini-bye. Few quarterbacks have offered floor-ceiling combos like Josh Allen, who enters Week 14 with four consecutive top-ten QB1 results. Yet Baltimore’s elite pass defense has yielded top-12 fantasy scores to just 1-of-12 signal callers faced, including shutdowns of Russell Wilson (QB18), Tom Brady (QB21), Jared Goff (QB26), Deshaun Watson (QB28), and Jimmy Garoppolo (QB31) since acquiring CB Marcus Peters. In what I expect to be a defensive slugfest, I’m shying away from Allen as a surefire season-long start. … Averaging 17.8 touches over Buffalo’s last five games, Devin Singletary remains a confident RB2 play versus an overrated Baltimore run defense enemy backs blowtorched for 185/908/9 (4.91 YPC) rushing over its last ten games, highlighted by Raheem Mostert’s Week 13 breakout (19/146/1). Continuing to establish himself as Buffalo’s bellcow back, Singletary played a season-high 78% of the Bills’ offensive snaps on Thanksgiving, out-touched Frank Gore 17 to 10, and ran 30-plus pass routes for the third time this year.

Allen’s 2019 target distribution: John Brown 88; Cole Beasley 76; Dawson Knox 39; Singletary 28; Isaiah McKenzie 27; Gore 12; Robert Foster 9; Duke Williams and Tyler Kroft 7. … Since the Ravens’ trade for Peters, outside CBs Peters and Jimmy Smith have yielded 37 completions on 65 targets (57%) for 398 yards (6.1 YPA), two touchdowns, and four picks. Based on matchup, I’m downgrading Brown from an every-week WR2 to high-risk WR2/3 territory. … Slot-type WRs Julian Edelman (10/89/0), Mohamed Sanu (10/81/1), Tyler Boyd (6/62/0), Tyler Lockett (5/61/1), and Kendrick Bourne (3/42/0) have logged at- or above-expectation PPR results against the Ravens over their last five games. Beasley has earned every-week WR3 treatment with 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in six of his last seven outings. … Albeit impressive for a rookie tight end, Knox has settled in as a touchdown-or-bust play without a game above six targets all season. … McKenzie and Foster shared third-receiver duties against Dallas on Thanksgiving, but Buffalo’s passing offense can’t support more than one or two producers each week.

Score Prediction: Bills 20, Ravens 17

 

Lions at Vikings
Team Totals: Vikings 28, Lions 15

Poised and decisive in his Thanksgiving NFL debut versus Chicago, David Blough earned two-QB-league starter consideration against Minnesota’s increasingly unimposing defense, which ranks a middling 15th in sacks (33), 14th in QB Hit Rate (16%), and bottom five in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, which is where Detroit’s offense butters its bread. … While Bo Scarbrough deserves recognition for three straight impressive tackle-breaking rushing lines of 14/55/1 (Dallas), 18/98/0 (Washington), and 21/83/0 (Chicago), Scarbrough’s complete lack of passing-game involvement renders him one of the lowest-floor RB2/flex considerations on Week 14’s slate. Scarbrough hasn’t so much as drawn a 2019 passing-game target and maintains low-scoring probability without a single carry inside an opponent’s five-yard line. As Scarbrough is a near-entirely touchdown-or-bust play and neither Ty Johnson nor J.D. McKissic has topped six touches in a game since Scarbrough’s emergence, this has become a backfield to avoid at almost all costs, especially with Detroit installed as nearly two-TD road dogs at Minnesota.

Blough’s Week 13 target distribution: T.J. Hockenson 11; Danny Amendola 8; Marvin Jones 6; Kenny Golladay 5; Johnson and McKissic 3; Scarbrough 0. … Hockenson’s placement on I.R. frees up quite a bit of projected opportunity after Blough targeted Hockenson relentlessly on Thanksgiving. But reserve TEs Logan Thomas and Jesse James are tough streamer sells as probable rotational partners facing a Vikings defense permitting the NFL’s eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. … Held below 50 yards in five straight games with one end-zone trip since Week 1, Amendola is always a low-ceiling, PPR-specific WR4 option without a safe floor. … Jones and Golladay warrant more optimism against Minnesota’s beatable secondary, which hemorrhaged stat lines of 11/147/1 (Amari Cooper), 6/140/1 (Tyreek Hill), 5/113/0 (Courtland Sutton), 6/106/1 (Randall Cobb), 4/77/0 (Tim Patrick), 4/76/1 (Michael Gallup), 6/75/0 (D.K. Metcalf), 2/65/1 (David Moore), and 7/63/0 (Sammy Watkins) over its last four games. Despite seeing only five targets on Thanksgiving, Golladay commanded the ninth-most Air Yards in the league (141) in Week 13 as Blough showed a willingness to throw the football up and let Golladay run under it. … Jones has been a boom-bust WR2/3 option all season, but he is tied for the NFL lead in touchdown catches (9).

The Vikings return home on a short week following last Monday night’s one-score loss in Seattle to face a pathetic Lions defense Kirk Cousins should pummel, even if Adam Thielen (hamstring) sits out again. Lit up by Mitchell Trubisky twice in the last month, Detroit has surrendered top-12 fantasy scores to 10-of-12 quarterbacks faced, donating comfortable pockets via the NFL’s fourth-lowest sack rate (5.1%) and second-lowest QB Hit Rate (11.8%). Per Sports Info Solutions, Cousins’ TD-to-INT ratio versus Cover-1 man defenses is 18:2 over the last two seasons. Matt Patricia’s Lions team plays Cover 1 at the NFL’s highest rate. … Mike Zimmer insists Dalvin Cook will face the Lions despite aggravating a Week 11 chest injury against the Seahawks. Cook has also publicly insisted he’s “fine.” The injury still adds risk of Minnesota dialing back Cook’s workload in favor of hard-charging rookie Alexander Mattison, who delivered 73 yards on eight touches against the Seahawks and is very flex-play viable based on Sunday’s cupcake draw, Cook’s injury, and this spot with the run-committed Vikings favored by nearly two touchdowns at home. If Cook is active, he’ll nevertheless be a near-impossible RB1 fade. Enemy backs have steamrolled the hapless Lions for a 154.4 total-yards average and 18 touchdowns in 12 games.

Update: Dalvin Cook appears certain to play after the Vikings left him off Friday’s final injury report.

Stefon Diggs hasn’t quite capitalized on Thielen’s extended absence with fewer than 50 yards in three of the Vikings’ last four games and is very likely to draw Darius Slay’s shadow coverage here. Diggs set the Lions on fire in these clubs’ Week 7 date (7/142/0), though, and Allen Robinson showed on Thanksgiving (8/86/1) that Slay isn’t quite an impenetrable foe, especially with minimal up-front pass rush to support him. I’m confidently standing by Diggs as a Week 14 fringe WR1. Diggs’ last three at-home receiving lines are 5/121/1 > 7/143/0 > 7/167/3. … Although Laquon Treadwell scored a wide-open 58-yard TD on a severe coverage bust in last Monday night’s loss to Seattle, he continued to play behind Diggs and Olabisi Johnson as the Vikings’ lightly-used No. 3 receiver. Kyle Rudolph is the vastly superior fantasy bet should Thielen sit again with five-plus targets in four straight games and five TDs during that span. The Lions have yielded the league’s eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Rudolph will be a legit top-ten TE1 play sans Thielen. … Deeper ancillary pass catchers like Johnson, Irv Smith, and Tyler Conklin are not seeing enough volume for fantasy viability in Thielen’s absence, and this game could easily settle in as a low-volume affair for Cousins with the Vikings at home facing the Lions’ third-string quarterback.

Score Prediction: Vikings 28, Lions 13

 

Redskins at Packers
Team Totals: Packers 28, Redskins 14

Even after last week’s stunning road upset of Carolina, the Redskins are a team to attack with fantasy D/STs, highlighted by raw rookie Dwayne Haskins absorbing 18 sacks in his first four NFL starts. Green Bay’s defense is a recommended streamer, while Haskins is a poor two-quarterback-league start. Seven straight quarterbacks to face the Packers have fantasy results of QB12 or worse, while Haskins’ weekly starter outcomes are QB27 > QB14 > QB25 > QB33. … Derrius Guice (10/129/2) and Adrian Peterson’s (13/99/1) Week 13 box-score results create high-risk chasey situations after both thumped Carolina’s Kawann Short– and Dontari Poe-less run defense, while neither Guice (30%) nor Peterson (36%) were dominant playing-time presences, and Chris Thompson (36%) will continue to own passing-down work. Since returning from injury, Guice’s touch counts are 8 > 11 > 12 compared to Peterson’s 12 > 11 > 13. The good news is enemy backs have tortured the Packers for 4.92 yards per carry and 14 all-purpose TDs in 12 games. The bad news is Guice’s RBBC involvement isn’t going away, and projected game script sets up extremely poorly for Washington’s dueling early-down rushers as two-touchdown dogs on the road.

Haskins’ 2019 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 27; Kelvin Harmon 21; Jeremy Sprinkle 14; Steven SimsTrey Quinn, and Paul Richardson 11; Wendell Smallwood 7; A.P. 6; Thompson 5. … McLaurin’s stat lines in Haskins’ four starts are 4/39/0 > 3/69/0 > 5/72/0 > 2/8/0 with countless missed chances airmailed by Washington’s rookie signal caller or negated by penalty. Still pacing the Skins in targets and Air Yards (374) via Haskins, McLaurin has settled in as a boom-bust post-Case Keenum WR3 option. Vulnerable to long balls, Green Bay has coughed up the NFL’s seventh-most 20-plus-yard completions (46) and a league-high 14 completions of 40-plus yards. McLaurin ranks top five in 20-plus-yard vertical targets (22). … Locking himself in as Washington’s No. 2 wideout over oft-hobbled Richardson, Harmon’s receiving lines are 5/53/0 > 3/43/0 > 3/51/0 in three games since the Skins’ Week 10 bye. A big, physical, possession receiver, Harmon has played himself into stretch-run WR4 territory and should be owned in all Dynasty leagues. Both McLaurin and Harmon happen to be popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 14 Buy Low Air Yards Model. … Sprinkle cleared 25 yards for the first time all year (36) in last week’s win over the Panthers. He’s an entirely matchup-based streamer versus the Packers, who’ve allowed the NFL’s third-most fantasy points to tight ends. George Kittle (6/129/1), Darren Waller (7/126/2), Greg Olsen (8/98/0), Hunter Henry (7/84/0), Kaden Smith (6/70/0), Travis Kelce (4/63/1), and Foster Moreau (2/24/1) all met or beat box-score expectations against the Pack over Green Bay’s last six games.

Green Bay’s massive scoring-projection advantage positions Matt LaFleur to lean on his rushing attack facing a Skins defense hemorrhaging 155.0 total yards per game to enemy backs. Unfortunately, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams remain entrenched in a near-even RBBC after Jones narrowly out-touched Williams 15 to 14 in last week’s win over the Giants, yet was outgained by Williams 67 to 31. Jones’ box score was marred by repeated goal-line stuffs and another negated score. He did out-snap Williams 58% to 42% and remains the preferred RB2 play, but Williams has emerged as an every-week flex averaging 15 touches over his last three games. … Aaron Rodgers continued to fulfill his bum-beater reputation by pouring Week 13’s QB2 overall result on the Giants, giving him four top-three QB1 scores on the season but results of QB19 or worse in 7-of-12 starts. It’s safe to call the Redskins a “bum” opponent, especially since they’re on the road for a cinch letdown spot following last week’s upset win at Carolina, and Rodgers has played his best at home. In particular, Rodgers’ yards per attempt spike from 6.3 in away games to 8.4 at Lambeau. Rodgers-to-Davante Adams is an every-week must-stack in DFS tournaments.

Rodgers’ Weeks 10-13 target distribution: Adams 32; Williams 13; Allen Lazard and Geronimo Allison 10; Jones 7; Jimmy Graham and Marquez Valdes-Scantling 6; Jake Kumerow 2. … Adams enters Week 14 with six-plus catches in six of his last seven games and double-digit targets in five straight. Matchups don’t matter for Adams due to his extreme volume and unbreakable rapport with Rodgers. … Although Lazard exploded for a monster Week 13 against the Giants (3/103/1), he did so on just three targets and 55% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, operating as a rotational player at the tail end of the Packers’ three-receiver sets. Lazard failed to clear 50 yards in five straight previous games. Green Bay’s non-Adams wideouts simply aren’t fantasy options on such minimal usage. … Fading away down the stretch as he so often seems to do, Graham has played fewer than 50% of the Packers’ snaps in consecutive weeks and hasn’t topped three targets in a game since Week 9. Graham is a touchdown-or-bust streamer at best.

Score Prediction: Packers 30, Redskins 3

 

Broncos at Texans
Team Totals: Texans 26, Broncos 16

Even while Drew Lock’s first NFL start began promisingly via repeated Courtland Sutton big plays and ended in a win, Lock’s 4.8 yards-per-attempt average and utter inability to move the ball for the final three quarters suggest Houston’s D/ST should appear on Week 14 streamer radars despite the Texans’ own defensive limitations. Lock himself is a low-end two-quarterback-league option coming off Week 13’s QB22 result. … Phillip Lindsay’s separation from Royce Freeman continued in last Sunday’s win over the Chargers, out-touching Freeman 20 to 9 to move Lindsay’s workload advantage to 52 to 22 over Denver’s last three games. The Texans’ J.J. Watt-less defense is devolving into a sieve, having yielded a 120/604/2 (5.03 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs over the past five weeks. No defense has coughed up more running back receptions than Houston (89). Feeding Lindsay relentlessly clearly gives the Broncos their best chance to stay competitive. Albeit not without risk, Lindsay is an upside RB2 play at Houston.

Lock’s Week 13 target distribution: Sutton and Jeff Heuerman 5; Freeman 4; Lindsay, Noah Fant, and DaeSean Hamilton 3; Tim Patrick 2. … Sutton’s efficiency will be a rest-of-season concern with Lock under center, but initial takeaways were promising. Only 16 NFL wide receivers drew more Week 13 Air Yards than Sutton (105), who delivered 4/74/2 box-score results that don’t reveal the game-winning defensive pass-interference flag he drew against Casey Hayward with seconds left. Catching balls from all types of quarterbacks, Sutton has incredibly logged 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 10-of-12 games. The Texans have allowed the NFL’s 12th-most fantasy points to wideouts. … Even against an unimposing Houston defense, Denver’s non-Sutton pass catchers are worrisome plays. Lock looked to Heuerman repeatedly over Fant in his first start, Hamilton committed a back-breaking drop that likely would’ve gone for a score, and Patrick’s playing time is in three-week descent (72% > 65% > 55%) while battling a shoulder injury. Fant has 19 scoreless yards on eight targets over the Broncos’ last two games.

Up to No. 2 in season-long fantasy quarterback points – outscoring consensus preseason QB1 Patrick Mahomes by 1.2 points per game – Establish The Run’s August top-ranked fantasy passer Deshaun Watson gets another chance to prove his matchup-proof capability against Denver, which has conceded fantasy outcomes better than QB14 to just 2-of-12 quarterbacks faced. One lesson to be learned from last week’s matchup-based concern versus New England is that Will Fuller’s presence should tilt nearly every Watson-based lineup decision in Watson’s favor since he averages 6.4 more career fantasy points per game whenever Fuller plays. … Already missing RE Bradley Chubb (ACL) and with LE Von Miller (MCL) hobbled, the Broncos lost DT Derek Wolfe (dislocated elbow) for the season in last week’s win over the Chargers, enhancing matchups for Watson and Houston’s rushing attack. Duke Johnson provided Week 13 hope that he may bypass Hyde as the Texans’ main back, out-snapping him 67% to 38%, out-touching him 14 to 11, and outgaining Hyde 90 yards with a touchdown to Hyde’s 22 yards. Johnson and Hyde look to have evened out as low-end RB2/flex options against Denver’s shorthanded front with a strong nod to Johnson in PPR leagues. Johnson has outgained Hyde 6.5 to 4.6 in yards per touch this season.

Watson’s Weeks 12-13 target distribution: DeAndre Hopkins 16; Fuller 13; Johnson 7; Kenny Stills 6; Darren Fells and Jordan Akins 5; Hyde 1. … Despite top CB Chris Harris’ intimidating presence, Denver got clocked by Stefon Diggs (5/121/1), Mike Williams (5/117/0), Odell Beckham (5/87/0), Cole Beasley (6/76/1), Keenan Allen (6/68/1), Jarvis Landry (6/51/1), and John Brown (2/39/1) over its last four games and is increasingly lacking up-front firepower to support its vulnerable backend. Don’t sleep on this as a blowup spot for Hopkins and Fuller as WR1 and WR2 plays, respectively. Hopkins has five-plus catches in 16 straight games. Fuller’s high-variance outlook rarely shifts. … Stills is more of a rotational player now with Bill O’Brien going heavy on two-tight end sets that cut into Houston’s three-receiver packages. Stills has exceeded five targets once since Week 3. … Fells again showed why he merits every-week streamer mentions by hitting pay dirt in last Sunday night’s upset of New England. He leads the Texans in red-zone targets (11) and targets inside the ten (7) and remains touchdown-or-bust playable.

Score Prediction: Texans 24, Broncos 13

 

49ers at Saints
Team Totals: Saints 23.5, 49ers 20.5

Jimmy Garoppolo visits the Superdome with just four top-12 fantasy scores in 12 starts to face a vicious Saints defensive front rested following its post-Thanksgiving mini-bye. Up to No. 4 in the NFL in both sacks (40) and QB hits (85), New Orleans has permitted just one top-ten QB1 finish since Week 3. This is a fade spot for most of San Francisco’s passing game. … Even as Raheem Mostert dominated last week’s backfield for an explosive-if-unanticipated 152 yards and a touchdown on 21 touches, the 49ers’ running back corps lacks usage definition heading to New Orleans with ousted lead back Tevin Coleman, goal-line vulture Jeffrey Wilson, and oft-injured Matt Breida all posing ongoing threats in a daunting draw. The Saints have stymied enemy backs for a combined 213/749/4 (3.52 YPC) rushing line and allowed the NFL’s seventh-fewest receiving yards per game (34.3) to the position. One thing we can say with some certainty is Coleman no longer warrants fantasy consideration with fewer than 75 total yards in seven of his last eight games, especially after Kyle Shanahan dropped Coleman’s playing time to a season-low 18% in last Sunday’s loss to the Ravens. Coleman has averaged 2.48 yards per carry over the past five weeks. Mostert handled a season-high 73% of last week’s snaps and is the 49ers’ lone usable RB2/flex option against the Saints, albeit an unsafe one based on workload, matchup, and game-script concerns.

Jimmy G’s Week 13 target distribution: Emmanuel Sanders 6; George Kittle and Deebo Samuel 4; Kendrick Bourne 3; Mostert 2; Coleman and Wilson 1. … Sanders finally appeared over his debilitating rib injury in last Sunday’s loss to Baltimore, playing all but one snap and leading San Francisco in targets and catches (4). Unfortunately, Sanders is the 49ers’ likeliest candidate for Marshon Lattimore’s shadow coverage and has topped 60 yards once since Week 4. He’s a dicey WR3 play. … After flopping along with the rest of San Francisco’s Week 13 passing game at Baltimore, Kittle remains a bet-on-talent TE1 in another difficult draw. Athletic at linebacker and safety, New Orleans has permitted the NFL’s ninth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Kittle still has 85-plus yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last seven games and is always worth teeing up confidently regardless of matchups. … Samuel’s passing-game involvement has taken a big hit with Sanders and Kittle healthy, drawing consecutive target counts of 2 and 4. He’s a low-floor, big-play-dependent WR3/flex option who will also encounter his fair share of Lattimore when Sanders kicks into the slot. … Bourne is a touchdown-or-bust deep-league WR4 with one game above 42 yards all year. Bourne has played 55% of the snaps or fewer in three straight weeks.

The Saints host the 49ers coming off a mini-bye after Sean Payton’s team took care of Thanksgiving business at Atlanta. Drew Brees’ matchup is daunting against the Niners, who’ve struggled with dual-threat passers Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson but otherwise held 8-of-9 quarterbacks faced to fantasy results of QB14 or worse. Injuries to LT Terron Armstead (high ankle) and LG Andrus Peat (broken arm) are likelier to be felt versus a 49ers defense that ranks No. 2 in sacks (45), while Brees hasn’t exactly lit it up since returning from his Week 2 hand injury as fantasy’s QB14 in points per game in Weeks 8-13. … San Francisco hasn’t posed a fearsome run-defense matchup in quite some time, surrendering a 184/829/3 (4.51 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs over its last nine games while losing MLB Kwon Alexander (torn pec) along the way. It sounds old by now, but Alvin Kamara remains a screaming positive-TD-regression candidate with zero end-zone trips since Week 3 and performs best on the ground as an outside rusher, where San Francisco is especially vulnerable. With Latavius Murray being squeezed out of the offense again, Kamara’s 82% Thanksgiving snap rate was his highest since Week 3. I’m standing by Kamara as an RB1 play with DFS-tournament appeal.

Brees’ 2019 target distribution: Michael Thomas 68; Kamara 45; Jared Cook 30; Ted Ginn 23; Murray 20; Tre’Quan Smith and Josh Hill 11; Taysom Hill 10. … Thomas busted on Thanksgiving in large part due to Brees’ season-low 184 yards in a game controlled by New Orleans’ defense, special teams, and fantasy football’s version of Satan, Taysom Hill. Thomas’ Week 14 on-paper matchup is the stiffest he’s faced all season – San Francisco has yielded the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers – rendering Thomas a bet-on-talent and bet-on-volume WR1. To break Marvin Harrison’s single-season record of 143 catches, Thomas must average 8.5 receptions over New Orleans’ final four games. … Even as Cook has left a discouraging amount of production on the field with repeated big-play drops lately, he enters Week 14 with 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in six straight games and leads all NFL tight ends in Air Yards (274) and actual yards (291) over the last month. Like Thomas, Cook is a fade-matchup play against the Niners, who’ve allowed the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year. … Ginn and Smith are both low-percentage, big-play-dependent dart throws in a poor Week 14 spot. San Francisco has permitted a league-low 19 completions of 20-plus yards.

Score Prediction: Saints 23, 49ers 17

 

Bengals at Browns
Team Totals: Browns 25, Bengals 16

Fresh off injecting a modicum of life into Cincinnati’s left-for-dead offense in last week’s upset of the Jets, Andy Dalton catches a tougher foe on the road against the Browns, who’ve held 7 of their last 11 quarterbacks faced to fantasy scores of QB16 or worse. Cincy-Cleveland is Week 14’s lowest-totaled affair, while the Bengals as a team have scored 23 points or fewer in all 12 games. Dalton is a two-QB-league starter only in this probable weather-affected slogfest. … The Bengals finally promoted Joe Mixon to Week 13 every-down duties; Mixon set or equaled season highs in snap rate (80%), routes run (22), and catches (4) after working in a near-even committee with Giovani Bernard for most of the year prior. With 100-plus total yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last six games and now seeing enhanced usage, Mixon has finally graduated into RB1 territory at the backend of a disappointing year. The Browns remain without three-down difference maker Myles Garrett (suspension), while bookend Oliver Vernon aggravated his knee injury in last week’s loss to the Steelers. Mixon faces a shorthanded Cleveland front that was already generously surrendering 4.58 yards per carry to opposing backs.

Dalton’s 2019 target distribution: Tyler Boyd 92; Auden Tate 61; Alex Erickson 38; Tyler Eifert 36; John Ross 32; Mixon 29; Gio 27; C.J. Uzomah 20; Damion Willis 15; Stanley Morgan 5. … A confident WR2 again, slot man Boyd is averaging 10.2 targets in Dalton’s nine 2019 starts and catches the softest Week 14 draw in Cincy’s pass-catcher corps. Browns slot CB T.J. Carrie has been dusted for 37 completions on 51 targets (73%), 459 yards (9.0 YPA), and four touchdowns this season. … Cleveland’s coverage is much stouter outside – perimeter CBs Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams have combined to allow just two TDs on 80 combined targets – but Tate remains WR4 playable with 50-plus yards and/or a touchdown in seven straight Dalton starts. Tate is also popping toward the end of Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 14 Buy Low Air Yards Model. … Ross (collarbone) is tentatively due back for this difficult draw. I added him last week in several season-long leagues and intend to place Ross in wait-and-see mode to gauge Ross’ usage in his first game back from a ten-week injury. With New England next on the schedule, I’m targeting Week 16 versus the Dolphins to potentially deploy Ross as an upside WR3/flex. … Erickson (26 routes), Morgan (14), and Willis (8) rounded out Cincinnati’s sub-package receiver corps in last week’s win over the Jets. They’ll all get pushed down by Ross. … Uzomah ran 23 routes to Eifert’s 16 in Week 13, and Uzomah delivered his first game above 26 yards since Week 1. Neither is a viable streamer.

The Bengals deserve recognition for stout defensive performances in three straight weeks – they held the Raiders to 17 points, Steelers to 16, and Jets to 6 – which should create at least some pause about Baker Mayfield’s matchup. Oakland has since been outed as fraudulent, however, Pittsburgh was quarterbacked by since-benched Mason Rudolph at the time, and Gang Green’s offensive line is among the worst in football. This is likelier than not to amount to a rebound spot for a previously-hot Browns team returning home after a road loss. Mayfield belongs firmly on DFS-tournament radars. … Even during its three-week defensive improvement, Cincinnati has remained fairly vulnerable to the run, yielding a combined 73/318/0 (4.36 YPC) rushing line to Raiders, Steelers, and Jets backs. As a nine-point home-favorite bellcow with 17-plus touches in 12 straight games, Nick Chubb is arguably the single-best rebound bet on the Browns. … Against Pittsburgh, Kareem Hunt logged double-digit touches for the fourth time in four Browns appearances while setting year highs in snaps (67%) and routes run (29). Averaging 6.3 targets per game, Hunt merits every-week RB2 treatment in Cleveland’s two-back attack.

Mayfield’s Weeks 10-13 target distribution: Jarvis Landry 41; Odell Beckham 36; Hunt 25; Chubb 11; Demetrius Harris 8; Rashard Higgins 5; KhaDarel Hodge and Stephen Carlson 3; Ricky Seals-Jones 1. … One of fantasy’s most consistent 2019 scorers, Landry draws the Bengals with 60-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 10-of-12 games and double-digit targets in five of his last six. He’s a matchup-agnostic WR2 as Mayfield’s most reliable pass catcher. … In Robby Anderson (7/101/0), James Washington (3/98/1), and Tyrell Williams (4/82/0) consecutively, perimeter wideouts have continued to deliver useful results against the Bengals amid their small-sample defensive surge. Only four teams have coughed up more 20-plus-yard completions than Cincinnati (51). This all bodes well for Beckham, who ranks top five in the NFL in Air Yards over the past month (498) and remains worthy of strong DFS-tournament consideration despite his season-long inefficiency. … David Njoku’s (wrist, I.R.) remains in week-to-week limbo. Harris, Carlson, and Seals-Jones have unproductively shared time in his place.

Update: David Njoku is expected to return from his broken wrist against the Bengals. While Sunday’s matchup is favorable and Njoku is an easy TE1-caliber talent, I prefer Ian Thomas and Tyler Higbee as Week 14 streamers. I’m not entirely confident in Njoku’s immediate role in his first game back from a nearly three-month injury and would prefer to use this as a wait-and-see week to assess whether Njoku is worth starting in Week 15 at Arizona.

Score Prediction: Browns 24, Bengals 17

 

Panthers at Falcons
Team Totals: Falcons 25.5, Panthers 22.5

Embarrassingly walloped by the Redskins at home last week, the 5-7 Panthers go back on the road to face a similarly toilet-circling Falcons team coming off its Thanksgiving loss to New Orleans. Defensive-minded Ron Rivera’s Tuesday firing should have little to no impact on Carolina’s offense, which will now be overseen mainly by Scott Turner, son of Norv. Coaching-role adjustments aside, this is a bounce-back spot for Christian McCaffrey, who had his season-worst game against Washington with two drops and fewer than 130 yards from scrimmage for just the third time all year. Beginning with most recent, McCaffrey’s last three total-yardage counts versus Dan Quinn’s defense are 191 > 178 > 139 with gaudy catch totals of 11 > 12 > 14. Last week’s struggles did nothing to change the fact that McCaffrey remains this week’s top RB1 play. … Absorbing seven sacks and turning the ball over twice, Kyle Allen resumed being part of the problem and not the solution in Carolina’s Week 13 loss, but he did log top-eight QB1 results for the second straight week and can be locked into two-quarterback-league lineups in the comfy confines of Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz dome. 7 of the last 11 signal callers to face the Falcons have turned in top-12 fantasy scores, while both of Allen’s frontline wide receivers encounter plus Week 14 draws.

Allen’s 2019 target distribution: D.J. Moore 91; CMC 78; Curtis Samuel 69; Greg Olsen 53; Jarius Wright 32; Ian Thomas 8. … One of football’s hottest receivers, Moore visits Atlanta with 95-plus yards and/or a touchdown in five straight games and nine-plus targets in each of his last seven. He’s a shoo-in WR1 at the Falcons, who’ve allowed the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points to receivers. … Held to 70 yards or fewer in 10-of-10 Allen starts, Samuel has been a touchdown-or-bust WR3/flex all year. Fortunately, Atlanta has yielded the league’s ninth-most TDs to wide receivers (14). … If Olsen (concussion) can’t play, the Panthers will turn to second-year TE Thomas, who came off the bench to draw four targets on just 44% of last week’s snaps. A 91st-percentile SPARQ athlete, Thomas ranked sixth among NFL tight ends in receiving yards with Olsen injured last Weeks 13-17 and would be an excellent TE1 streamer.

Unable to protect Matt Ryan, the Falcons have devolved into an offense to attack with D/STs; Ryan is the NFL’s third-most-pressured quarterback since Atlanta’s Week 9 bye (44%). Over his last five games, Ryan is 115-of-189 passing (60.8%) for 1,235 yards (6.53 YPA) with five touchdowns and eight turnovers. The Panthers lead the NFL in sacks (46) and rank third in QB hits (85), giving their defense streamer life. … As for Ryan’s standalone outlook, 9-of-12 quarterbacks to face Carolina have tallied fantasy scores of QB15 or worse. Nevertheless, Julio Jones (shoulder) and Austin Hooper’s (MCL) returns would vault Ryan right back into season-long QB1 playability. … Devonta Freeman (foot) returned as Atlanta’s lead back in Thanksgiving’s loss to the Saints, handling 21 touches on 66% of the Falcons’ snaps. Brian Hill did chip in seven touches on a 26% playing-time clip and is enough of a presence to prevent Freeman from reemerging as a true bellcow. As box-score results were also spiked by Atlanta running a season-high 85 offensive plays, 20-touch outings shouldn’t necessarily be Freeman’s going-forward expectation. Still, Freeman warrants low-end RB2 treatment based on job security and matchup. Trucksticked by Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson last week, Carolina’s run defense has bottomed out as worst in the league.

Julio Jones’ AC joint shoulder sprain was never a serious injury, and he should return at nearly 100% after taking Thanksgiving off. While his matchup is no gimme against stud Panthers CB James Bradberry, Jones did tally 91 yards on eight targets when these clubs met in Week 11 and seems very likely to go overlooked as a Week 14 DFS-tournament play. Julio is averaging a robust 9.5 targets and 98.5 yards over his last six games. … Albeit propped up opportunity wise by Jones and Austin Hooper’s injuries – both of whom may play Sunday – Calvin Ridley catches Carolina with 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in six of his last eight games and went berserk against the Panthers in Week 11 (8/143/1), in particular going to town on typically-stingy CB Donte Jackson. Ridley dropped receiving lines of 3/90/1 and 4/64/1 on a similar-looking Panthers secondary last year, too. Ridley is playing at too high a level to keep out of season-long lineups as an upside WR2. … Slot man Russell Gage and fill-in TE Jaeden Graham will take the biggest hits if Hooper returns and resumes his monster first-half target share. Hooper was on pace for 104 catches eight games in. Ideally, we’ll get reports regarding Hooper’s projected participation before Sunday’s game. A full practice by Friday would be a great sign for his Week 14 TE1 outlook.

Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Panthers 23

 

Dolphins at Jets
Team Totals: Jets 24.5, Dolphins 19.5

Ryan Fitzpatrick encounters a revenge game at The Meadowlands, where he quarterbacked the Jets in 2015-16 and ethered Gang Green for Week 9’s QB6 result. Fitz has top-eight QB1 scores in four of his last eight starts, while Miami’s inability to run the ball places Fitzpatrick in lucrative pass-funnel spots. With star Jets SS Jamal Adams (ankle) and underrated slot CB Brian Poole (concussion) both sidelined, Fitzpatrick is an enticing DFS-tournament play in stacks with white-hot DeVante Parker and/or Mike Gesicki. … Due to Kalen Ballage’s year-ending leg injury, UDFA rookie Patrick Laird projects as Miami’s lead back against the Jets after handling 14 touches on 59% of last week’s offensive snaps. Seventh-round afterthought Myles Gaskin (3, 23%) operated as Laird’s lightly-used caddie. Although New York’s run defense is stoutest in the league – holding enemy backs to a combined 256/759/9 (2.96 YPC) rushing line on the year – Gang Green has yielded the NFL’s third-most running back catches (76), which feeds into the strengths of Laird’s playing style. Laird caught 96 balls over his final two college seasons as a sometimes-tailback, sometimes-wide receiver at Cal.

Fitzpatrick’s 2019 target distribution: Parker 77; Gesicki 47; Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson 33; Ballage 20; Laird 14; Durham Smythe 6; Gaskin 4. … Repeatedly named in this space as fantasy football’s most underrated player, Parker reproved it in last week’s outcome tilter (7/159/2) and is again positioned to impact Week 14’s slate. In four games since Preston Williams’ Week 9 ACL tear, Parker ranks third in the NFL in Air Yards (500), fourth in targets (41), and first in actual receiving yards (454), while the Jets have allowed the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to wideouts. … Gesicki has drawn six-plus targets in five straight games and creamed the Jets for 6/95/0 receiving when these teams met in Week 9. No. 2 among tight ends in Air Yards (311) behind only Travis Kelce (334) over the past five weeks, Gesicki is an upside TE1 facing off with Gang Green. … Hurns and Wilson continue to share complementary snaps as Miami’s Nos. 2 and 3 wide receivers, emerging as deep-league WR4 options on 4-6 target projections.

Embarrassed by the previously-winless Bengals last week, the Jets return home for a get-right spot versus the Dolphins, who’ve permitted top-12 QB1 scores in 8-of-12 games. Only three teams are giving up more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than Miami, which Josh Allen (QB1), Baker Mayfield (QB6), and Carson Wentz (QB8) all flamed consecutively in Weeks 11-13. A top-eight fantasy passer in three of his last four starts with just two turnovers since Week 8, Sam Darnold is worth going right back to as a QB1 streamer in Week 14. … Le’Veon Bell’s 14 touches versus Cincy were entirely nonsensical considering his plus matchup with the Bengals’ near-nonexistent linebacker corps and Bell’s 85% playing-time clip, his highest since Week 9. Bell is worth betting on continually based on his usage and Sunday’s matchup with the Dolphins, who allow the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.

Darnold’s 2019 target distribution: Jamison Crowder 71; Robby Anderson 54; Demaryius Thomas 43; Bell 39; Ryan Griffin 37; Vyncint Smith 15; Bilal Powell 7; Braxton Berrios 4. … Crowder set a season high in Week 13 routes run (53) against the Bengals but uncharacteristically dropped three balls and finished with eight yards. Averaging 7.2 targets over Darnold’s last five starts, Crowder is worth sticking with as a volume-driven WR3 play against Miami. The Dolphins have allowed nine TDs on 97 slot targets this year; Crowder runs 75% of his routes inside. He’s also popping in Week 14’s Buy Low Air Yards Model. … Anderson is catching late-season fire as Gang Green’s dominant deep threat, ranking top 15 among NFL wideouts in Air Yards (318) over the past three weeks and commanding a year-high ten targets in Week 13’s loss to Cincinnati. The Dolphins have yielded the NFL’s fourth-most 20-plus-yard completions (51), benefiting big-play-threat Anderson. … Thomas is a touchdown-or-bust WR4 who hasn’t hit pay dirt all year and has drawn zero targets inside the ten-yard line. … Griffin reasserted himself as an enormous part of Adam Gase’s offense in Week 13, commanding seven targets against the Bengals. Griffin’s 42 routes run were his most since Week 1. This is another plus draw for Griffin against the Dolphins, who’ve allowed the NFL’s sixth-most yards to tight ends (709).

Score Prediction: Jets 24, Dolphins 23

 

Chargers at Jaguars
Team Totals: Chargers 23, Jaguars 20

With Los Angeles’ coaching staff fighting for its life at 4-8 and all eight losses coming by one score, the Chargers visit a similarly downtrodden 4-8 Jaguars team that’s been blown out in four straight weeks. Quarterback aside, Jacksonville’s main weakness is no secret after enemy backs eviscerated DC Todd Wash’s unit for 105/643/7 (6.12 YPC) rushing over its last four games. This is a potential smash spot for Melvin Gordon, whose last four touch counts are 23 > 23 > 17 > 22 with four-plus yards per carry in all of them, regaining his in-prime burst. Jacksonville’s front seven is further weakened by MLB Myles Jack‘s (knee) loss to I.R. … Staying very relevant amid Gordon’s resurgence, Austin Ekeler visits Duval with 80-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 11-of-12 games. Especially if the underachieving Chargers fall behind, Jacksonville’s dynamic pass rush could force Ekeler into more playing time than usual on screens, hots, outlets, and checkdowns. The Jaguars rank No. 6 in in sacks (38) and No. 8 in QB hits (81). … His arm shot and pass protection nearly nonexistent, Philip Rivers’ fantasy appeal is long gone. He’s finished QB18 or worse in five straight games, offering neither upside nor a safe floor. On game tape, it’s cringeworthy watching Rivers trying to write longball checks his arm can no longer cash.

Rivers’ target distribution under OC Shane SteichenKeenan Allen 33; Hunter Henry 29; Ekeler 23; Mike Williams 19; Gordon 13; Andre Patton 5. … Allen has endured an awkward year along with most of his teammates, but he enters Week 14 averaging a sturdy 9.0 targets over his last six games and is on pace for 101.3 catches. Albeit more volatile than most, Allen is an every-week WR1. … Henry tied his season low in routes run (27) in last week’s loss to Denver, contributing to year lows in targets (3) and yards (10). I’m chalking it up as a blip; Henry cleared 45 yards and/or hit pay dirt in 10 of his prior 11 games and was 7-for-7 in 2019. He’s now 7-for-8 in bounce-back position facing the Jags’ zone-heavy defense. Henry’s odds of regressing positively are obvious enough that he’s Week 14’s No. 1 buy-low tight end in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Williams has maintained WR3/flex relevance only via contested catches downfield. The good news is Williams (6’4/218) has major size advantages on Jags outside CBs A.J. Bouye (6’0/186) and Tre Herndon (5’11/186), while Jacksonville has shown big-play vulnerability by coughing up the league’s ninth-most catches of 20-plus yards (45). Still on the hook for severe positive-touchdown regression with zero scoring receptions after scoring ten times on just 43 grabs last year, Williams is an interesting DFS-tournament play in a week where he figures to attract minimal ownership.

The Jaguars are resorting back to Gardner Minshew following their fourth straight blowout loss against an ultra-talented Chargers defense armed with a healthy SS Derwin James and CB Casey Hayward on the backend and DEs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram up front. It’s a rude comeback spot for Minshew; just 1-of-12 quarterbacks to face L.A. has beaten QB12 fantasy results, while Chargers-Jaguars carries Week 14’s fourth-lowest total. It’s hard to get excited about Minshew beyond deep two-QB leagues. … Leonard Fournette continues to assert himself as a passing-game monster with five-plus catches in five straight games and an upward-trending 87-reception pace, especially helpful since the Bolts have served up the league’s eighth-most running back catches (69). On the season, Fournette happens to have drawn 75% of his targets against zone coverage; Los Angeles plays zone at the NFL’s highest rate (84.5%). Fournette’s efficiency comes and goes, but his usage is as bankable as any running back’s in football. He’s run 30-plus pass routes in six straight games. Fournette is also promisingly and eye-catchingly popping as Week 14’s No. 1 Air Yards Buy Low player.

Minshew’s 2019 target distribution: D.J. Chark 70; Dede Westbrook 60; Fournette 56; Chris Conley 49; Keelan Cole 13; RyQuell Armstead 10; Seth DeValve 9. … Chark has settled in as a boom-bust WR2, but it’s notable that he leads the Jaguars in targets, yards (697), and touchdowns (5) on Minshew throws and offers a slate-breaking ceiling each week with 4.34 speed and heaps of opportunity. Only 12 NFL receivers have commanded more Air Yards than Chark (1,193) this year. … Attacking Los Angeles on interior routes has been profitable; struggling slot CB Desmond King has yielded 30 completions on 35 targets (86%) for 367 yards (10.5 YPA) and a pair of touchdowns. Jaguars slot man Westbrook remains on the WR3/4 outskirts, teasing with sporadically useful games. … Conley’s stat lines in Minshew’s last six starts are 2/32/0 > 4/103/1 > 3/83/0 > 0/0 > 1/26/0 > 1/17/0. Facing a Chargers defense that’s allowed the NFL’s third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, Conley is a Hail Mary WR4/flex.

Score Prediction: Chargers 20, Jaguars 17

 

Chiefs at Patriots
Team Totals: Patriots 26, Chiefs 23

Although last week’s QB1 overall score by Deshaun Watson inspires faith Patrick Mahomes can similarly shower the Patriots in elite fantasy production, several factors suggest Mahomes’ road to success will be more difficult. Watson caught the Pats beneath Houston’s NRG Stadium dome, while Mahomes is in Foxboro. The Patriots haven’t allowed more than 14 points in an at-home regular season game since November 4, 2018, when they gave up 17 to the Packers. Mahomes’ yards per attempt nosedive from 10.2 with a 7.6% touchdown rate versus zone coverage to 7.5 YPA and a 2.6% TD Rate against man; the Patriots play man at the NFL’s highest rate. Mahomes hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with QB16 (Chargers) and QB13 (Raiders) scores in his last two starts. Yet Andy Reid’s club has mustered point totals of 31, 40, and 42 in these teams’ last three meetings. His supporting cast at nearly full strength, I’m riding and (hopefully not) dying with Mahomes in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. … Kansas City’s backfield is tougher to parse with LeSean McCoyDarwin Thompson, and Spencer Ware all in the hunt for touches. Reid continues to reiterate McCoy’s usage will be limited based on his age – Shady hasn’t reached a 50% playing-time clip in a single game all year – while beat writers believe Ware was an “emergency signing.” The Pats have allowed two running back touchdowns all year, and that includes both rushing and receiving.

Update: On Friday, the Chiefs ruled out Damien Williams (ribs), narrowing Kansas City’s backfield to the aforementioned three actors. LeSean McCoy remains the favorite for playing time and touches, but Andy Reid has refused to treat him like a true feature back. This makes Darwin Thompson an intriguing boom-bust flex option as the Chiefs’ most explosive run-catch back. I’m not convinced we’ll see much of Spencer Ware at all.

Mahomes’ Weeks 10-13 target distribution: Tyreek Hill 29; Travis Kelce 26; Sammy Watkins 15; McCoy 9; Damien, Darrel Williams, and Demarcus Robinson 6; Mecole Hardman 5; Deon Yelder 2; Thompson and Byron Pringle 1. … Hill’s last three receiving lines against the Pats are 1/42/0 > 7/142/3 > 7/133/1, while Tyreek’s short-area quickness and ability to go zero to sixty in a blink make him capable of causing less-twitchy Stephon Gilmore fits. Hill’s floor is lower than usual, but his ceiling remains sky high. As Golden Tate (6/102/1), Randall Cobb (4/86/0), JuJu Smith-Schuster (6/78/0), Cole Beasley (7/75/0), Jarvis Landry (5/65/0), and Kenny Stills (3/61/1) can attest, the Patriots are more vulnerable to slot men than any other receiver position. Hill has run 50.2% of his routes in the slot since returning from his shoulder injury in Week 6. … The Pats had an easier time bottling up Kelce in the aforementioned games (3/23/1 > 5/61/0 > 5/40/0), bumping him at the line of scrimmage and boasting one of the NFL’s top man-coverage tight end stoppers in SS Patrick Chung. This year’s Patriots have allowed the league’s sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to Kelce’s position. Kelce remains a high-end season-long TE1 play, but we may need to lower expectations for a true difference-making week. … Watkins played in two of said games, delivering uneven results (4/114/0 > 2/18/0). Invisible in the Chiefs’ offense lately, Watkins is a tough sell beyond WR4/flex scenarios against a Pats defense permitting the NFL’s fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. … Hardman is always a big-play threat, but he’s drawn one target or fewer in three of Kansas City’s last four games with Hill, Watkins, and dirty-work third WR Robinson all healthy.

Albeit largely from what amounted to a furious garbage-time rally, Tom Brady banked his first top-12 fantasy score since Week 6 in last Sunday night’s loss to the Texans and now catches an unimposing Chiefs defense back home in Foxboro. Kansas City ranks a slightly above-par 13th in sack rate (7.4%) and decidedly sub-par 14.8% in QB Hit Rate, while high-priced DE Frank Clark is battling a recurring shoulder injury he aggravated in last week’s win over Oakland, and did not return. The Chiefs have allowed the NFL’s 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including top-ten QB1 weeks to four of their last seven signal callers faced. Brady’s matchup is above average, but his own performances for the most part have not been. He’s a fringe season-long starter at best. … While a Sony Michel game might make sense on paper since Kansas City’s swiss-cheese run defense permits 5.08 yards per carry to enemy backs, the Pats showed their continued lack of faith in Michel by turning away from him in last week’s loss despite early success. And Michel has been an abject disaster in virtually every game for which Rex Burkhead has been active this season with double-digit fantasy points in all three of Burkhead’s missed games, and double digits in 1-of-9 games played by Rex. With just three receptions since Week 6, Michel is an entirely touchdown-or-bust flex option despite the Chiefs’ up-front softness. … Kansas City is just as giving to pass-catching backs like Week 13 superstar James White, having coughed up the NFL’s second-most running back receiving yards per game (63.6). I’d feel much more comfortable flexing White here.

Brady’s Week 13 target distribution: White and Julian Edelman 11; Jakobi Meyers 7; Phillip Dorsett 6; Mohamed Sanu 5; Matt LaCosse 2; Burkhead, Ben Watson, and N’Keal Harry 1. … With double-digit targets in seven straight games, Edelman projects as one of Week 14’s safest fantasy plays in the slot against Kendall Fuller. Since the Chiefs acquired him as part of last year’s Alex Smith trade, Fuller has been torched for 93 completions on 133 targets (69.9%), 1,085 yards (8.16 YPA), and four touchdowns. … Especially after Brady spent much of last Sunday night’s loss ripping them on the sideline, the rest of New England’s separation-lacking wideouts are low-floor sells. In an unlikely turn of events, UDFA rookie Meyers may be the Pats’ next-best bet after he finished second behind Edelman in routes run (40) and targets against Houston. … Dorsett ranked third in routes (39) but hasn’t cleared 50 yards since Week 3. … Harry caused Brady’s interception by letting Texans CB Bradley Roby run Harry’s route for him and was barely heard from again. … Sanu finished fifth in the Patriots’ Week 13 receiver corps in routes run (10) and remained utterly ineffective trying to play through a high ankle sprain. … Watson and LaCosse are canceling each other out as streamer options. Watson has two targets over the last two games.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Patriots 20

 

Titans at Raiders
Team Totals: Titans 25.5, Raiders 22.5

Ryan Tannehill deserves to be one of Week 14’s most-popular streamers and DFS plays against the fast-plummeting Raiders, who’ve supported high quarterback floors by permitting top-15 fantasy results to 8 of their last 11 signal callers faced and conceded upside weeks with six top-six QB1 scores surrendered during that span. Tannehill has tallied top-12 fantasy outcomes in 5-of-6 starts, and this is arguably his best matchup to date since only the Bucs and Cardinals are allowing more quarterback fantasy points than Oakland. … The late-season Derrick Henry narrative continues to crush with touches/yardage/TD counts of 29/166/1 > 20/175/2 > 25/191/2 > 16/99/1 > 17/106/0 > 22/92/1 > 34/171/2 > 17/238/4 over Henry’s last eight November and December games. Enemy backs have tagged the Raiders for 109/459/4 (4.21 YPC) rushing over Oakland’s last five games and the NFL’s sixth-most receiving yards (593) over the course of the year. Henry is a shoo-in RB1 in a game the Titans should control and are projected to win.

Tannehill’s 2019 target distribution: A.J. Brown 33; Corey Davis 27; Adam Humphries and Jonnu Smith 24; Anthony Firkser 16; Dion Lewis 12; Henry and Tajae Sharpe 11. … The ongoing obstacle for Titans pass catchers is low volume in a Henry-based offense; Tannehill has attempted 22 passes or fewer in three straight games. Brown’s stat lines in Tannehill’s six starts are 4/135/1 > 1/17/0 > 4/81/0 > 2/11/1 > 6/64/0 > 3/45/0. Even in a gorgeous draw against the Raiders, Brown is a volatile if still high-upside WR3 play. … Davis has cleared 50 yards twice over his last 16 games, devolving into a longshot WR4 option. … Slot man Humphries has drawn ten targets combined over the last four weeks and scored two TDs in his last 16 games. Humphries (ankle) is out for Week 14, potentially pushing an extra target or two in Brown and/or Davis’ direction. … Firkser (12) ran nearly as many Week 13 routes as Smith (15) and drew two more targets. The Titans are using Firkser as a situational receiving tight end and Smith as primarily a blocker.

Derek Carr is always a tough fantasy sell as a non-aggressive passer who adds little with his legs, and Week 14 is no different facing a Titans defense permitting the NFL’s eighth-fewest points per game (19.5) and fantasy quarterback results of QB12 or worse in 9-of-12 contests. Carr himself has top-12 fantasy scores in just 3-of-12 starts. He’s a decent-floor, low-ceiling two-quarterback-league play only. … Battling what he termed on social media this week as a “broken” shoulder and consistently removed in passing situations, Josh Jacobs catches the Titans as a continually low-floor, high-ceiling fringe RB1/2. Tennessee yields an even 4.00 yards per carry and the NFL’s second-most receptions per game (6.4) to enemy backs, setting up Jacobs for a suboptimal draw considering his near-nonexistent passing-game usage with four targets gaining 14 yards over Oakland’s last three games. The good news is Jacobs has logged 17-plus touches in eight of his last nine outings, and Titans-Raiders projects as a neutral-script affair where neither team should jump out to an enormous lead to severely alter script. Jacobs is a much more confident play than he was in Weeks 12 and 13’s blowout road losses to the Jets and Chiefs.

Update: Raiders beat reporters are as pessimistic as ever about Josh Jacobs‘ Week 14 availability after he barely practiced during the week. If Jacobs can’t go, Jalen Richard would be a viable PPR-specific flex option and DeAndre Washington a low-end flex in what would project as a near-even committee, albeit with Richard as the favorite for passing-game work.

Update: The Titans will be without top CB Adoree Jackson (foot) after losing Malcolm Butler (wrist) to I.R., meaning they’re missing both first-team corners against the Raiders. This is good news for Tyrell Williams‘ Week 14 matchup.

Carr’s Week 13 target distribution: Darren Waller 9; Tyrell Williams 4; DeAndre Washington and Zay Jones 3; Jalen RichardDerek Carrier, and Alec Ingold 2; Keelan Doss and Foster Moreau 1. … Waller’s 7/100/0 explosion on nine targets in Hunter Renfrow’s (rib, lung) first game missed furthered the notion that Waller’s high-end production positively correlates with Renfrow’s lowered or absent usage. Waller runs short routes in the middle of the field – directly in checkdown-machine Carr’s wheelhouse – while Tennessee has permitted the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, including Jack Doyle’s Week 13 eruption (6/73/1). By far, Waller is Week 14’s top Raiders pass-catcher play. … Scoreless since Week 8 with just one 50-plus-yard game during that span, Williams has devolved back into a fringe WR3/flex option. This is a good matchup, though; Zach Pascal (7/109/0) reinforced last week that Tennessee’s biggest secondary deficiency is versus outside receivers, and Williams runs 72% of his routes on the perimeter. … No. 2 WR Jones has 102 scoreless yards on 17 targets (6.0 YPT) since joining Oakland in Week 8. … Doss took over as the Raiders’ post-Renfrow slot receiver in last week’s defeat and drew one target among 22 routes run. Oakland’s passing game is a near-full fade beyond Waller and Williams.

Score Prediction: Titans 27, Raiders 20

 

Steelers at Cardinals

Team Totals: Steelers 23, Cardinals 20.5

Winners of six of their last seven despite a 19.6-point average during that span and so much of it coming from defense, the Steelers nevertheless hobble into the desert with UDFA rookie Devlin Hodges under center and JuJu Smith Schuster (knee) and James Conner (shoulder) still on the shelf. Fourth-round pick Benny Snell has emerged as Pittsburgh’s main rusher on consecutive carry counts of 21 and 16, but only one target apiece in each game on 49% and 37% snap rates against the Bengals and Browns. Jaylen Samuels (55%) out-snapped Snell in last week’s win over Cleveland as Pittsburgh fell behind 10-0 early, emerging with nine touches for 54 yards. Snell is a touchdown-or-bust RB2/flex with a low floor based on his receiving nonexistence. Samuels remains involved on passing downs but seems to have fallen out of favor in the Steelers’ lead-back mix with Snell offering a more downhill, smashmouth running style that suits how Mike Tomlin wants to play in Pittsburgh’s current state. … Expectations should be raised for Hodges as a two-quarterback-league play; incredibly, 10-of-12 signal callers to face Arizona have banked top-ten fantasy results. Hodges’ pass-attempt totals are 20 and 21 in his two starts, however, and “Duck” has added nothing with his legs. Hodges’ ceiling just isn’t high enough for DFS deployment.

Hodges’ 2019 target distribution: Diontae Johnson 11; James Washington 9; JuJu and Conner 7; Vance McDonald 6; Samuels 5; Snell 2; Tevin Jones 1. … Hodges’ volume limitations pose by far the biggest obstacle for Pittsburgh’s pass catchers; there just isn’t enough opportunity to go around. … Johnson has been severely outproduced by Washington with Hodges quarterbacking. Despite commanding more targets, Johnson’s yardage total is 60 compared to Washington’s 203 with a pair of scores on Hodges’ throws. Washington is Duck’s hunting partner, which may explain the gargantuan disparity. On low-target projections, both are fringe WR3/flex options whose outlooks are boosted by facing an Arizona defense permitting the NFL’s most touchdown passes (31) and 20-plus-yard completions (60). If forced to guess, I’d say Washington is likelier to draw Patrick Peterson’s coverage than Johnson, heightening the latter’s DFS-tournament appeal. … McDonald hasn’t topped 40 yards all year but is as intriguing as ever this week; tight ends have pounded Arizona for the NFL’s most fantasy points, including Tyler Higbee’s Week 13 career game (7/107/1). McDonald has played at least 85% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps in four straight weeks. It would help Washington, Johnson, and McDonald if the Cardinals were able to score on Pittsburgh, forcing OC Randy Fichtner to increase his reliance on the passing game.

Kyler Murray comes off his season-worst game in Week 13’s blowout loss to the Rams for another worrisome draw. Just two of the last ten quarterbacks to face Pittsburgh topped QB14 fantasy results, while resurgent Steelers DC Keith Butler’s unit has the requisite horses to dismantle Arizona’s talent-deficient offensive line. Pittsburgh ranks third in the NFL in sacks (43) and tied for first in QB hits (90) and lives in enemy backfields, having tallied the league’s fourth-most tackles for loss (88). With few exceptions, this looks like a tough week to invest in Cardinals skill-position players. … On touch counts of 15 > 22 > 16 > 14 since joining the team, Kenyan Drake is Arizona’s lone fantasy-viable running back in this suboptimal matchup. The Cards returned from their Week 12 bye with David Johnson (6 touches, 23% snaps) playing deservedly sparingly and Chase Edmonds not playing at all. The Steelers have held enemy backs to 3.86 yards per carry, just 38.1 receiving yards per game, and five all-purpose TDs in 12 weeks. Even with Arizona’s backfield mostly to himself, Drake is a low-expectations RB2/flex option.

Murray’s Weeks 11-13 target distribution: Christian Kirk 16; Drake and Larry Fitzgerald 12; Pharoh Cooper 10; Andy Isabella 5; Charles Clay and Damiere Byrd 3; David and KeeSean Johnson 2. … As Week 14’s No. 5 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model, Kirk is the Cardinals’ most-playable pass catcher in what’s typically a matchup to avoid. Just one enemy wideout has cleared 100 yards against Pittsburgh all season. Kirk is at least averaging a fairly robust 8.4 targets over his last five games. He’s a boom-bust WR3 option. … Fitzgerald hasn’t topped 71 yards since Week 2 and has hit pay dirt once since Week 3. He’s devolved into a low-ceiling WR4. … This is how routes run were distributed in Arizona’s post-bye Week 13 loss to the Rams: Kirk 41; Fitzgerald 38; Cooper 26; Byrd 19; Clay 18; Isabella 14; Maxx Williams 6. I’m squinting and still can’t see any lower-rung sleepers in this group.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 17, Steelers 16

 

Seahawks at Rams
Team Totals: Seahawks 23.5, Rams 23.5

If Seahawks-Rams at all mirrors recent history, it’ll be a high-scoring affair after Seattle and L.A. played to point totals of 59, 67, and 64 in their last three meetings. Of concern for Russell Wilson is Sunday night’s inside matchup of Aaron Donald versus Seahawks second-string C Joey Hunt, who is spelling Justin Britt (ACL). Wilson has banked top-15 fantasy weeks in 8-of-12 starts, yet this year 8-of-12 quarterbacks to draw Los Angeles have logged outcomes of QB15 or worse. With Jalen Ramsey expected to chase Tyler Lockett, Wilson is a boom-bust season-long play. … Los Angeles presents a poor matchup for Seattle’s in-transition backfield, holding enemy backs to 3.70 yards per carry and an anemic 34.5 receiving yards per game. Chris Carson maintained leadership of last week’s running back usage, out-touching Rashaad Penny 24 to 19 and narrowly out-snapping Penny 52% to 47%. Sunday’s difficult matchup and Seattle’s lack of Carson-Penny differentiation renders both fringe RB2/flex options with touchdown dependency.

Wilson’s Week 13 target distribution: Jacob Hollister 8; D.K. Metcalf 7; Penny 5; David Moore 4; Tyler Lockett 3; Carson 2; Josh Gordon and Jaron Brown 1. … Hollister set year highs in targets, snaps (81%), and catches (6) in Seattle’s post-bye win over Minnesota. An 81% player in Week 13, Hollister confidently belongs in TE1 season-long crosshairs against the Vikings. … Metcalf has 75-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 10-of-12 games and checked in as Week 14’s No. 4 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … A difference maker all year, Lockett’s late-season lack of production, shin injury, and flu illness have all put him in a boom-bust place. Lockett hasn’t cleared 40 yards since Week 9. The Rams are expected to allow Jalen Ramsey to chase Lockett inside, creating opportunities for other Seahawks pass catchers.

Jared Goff’s career struggles have largely come versus defenses that generate pressure and/or catch Goff outside of L.A. Goff grew up in Cali, played college ball at Cal, and now plays professionally with Los Angeles amid small hands and ongoing ball-security woes. 9-of-12 quarterbacks to face Pete Carroll’s defense have logged fantasy scores of QB16 or worse. Sunday night still sets up nicely for Goff, whose career yards per attempt sky from 7.36 at home to 7.96 away. … Todd Gurley looked to regain 2017 form in last Sunday’s destruction of Arizona, parlaying 20 touches into 115 yards and an end-zone trip. Gurley’s usage still isn’t what it once was – he’s totaled below 100 yards in 9-of-12 games – but he’s moved back toward that vicinity as lead member of a Rams committee that also includes goal-line vulture Malcolm Brown. Maintaining a painfully low fantasy floor, Gurley still has just eight receptions over his last six games.

Goff’s Weeks 12-13 target distribution: Robert Woods 27; Cooper Kupp 16; Tyler Higbee 14; Brandin Cooks and Josh Reynolds 6; Gurley 4; Gerald Everett 2. … On target counts of 11 > 9 > 18 over his last three appearances, Woods is an easy WR2 despite zero 2019 touchdown catches. Beginning with most recent, Woods’ six stat lines against Seattle are 5/48/0 > 4/89/0 > 5/92/0 > 6/45/1 > 5/66/0 > 10/162/0. Despite horrendous touchdown luck, Woods long ago earned every-week season-long starter treatment. He’s banked 80-plus yards in four of the Rams’ last five games. … Seattle’s history with slot receivers bodes well for Week 14’s Kupp production; the Seahawks have conceded useful PPR stat lines to slot WRs Kupp himself (9/117/1), JuJu Smith-Schuster (5/84/0), Chris Godwin (7/61/0), Tyler Boyd (8/60/0), Russell Gage (7/58/0), Kendrick Bourne (4/42/1), and Greg Ward (6/40/0). … Cooks is an active member of Los Angeles’ 53-man roster but is little more than a role player with fewer than 75 yards once in his last 15 games. At this point, I’m willing to believe Cooks is more of a decoy than individual producer for the Rams. … Everett (ankle) will sit again, rendering Higbee a sexy Week 14 streamer after Higbee parlayed season highs in snaps (91%) and routes run (33) into Week 13’s 7/107/1 line, all in the first half. The Seahawks have permitted the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, keeping Higbee firmly in the season-long QB1 mix.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 23

 

Giants at Eagles
Team Totals: Eagles 28, Giants 18

Even as Evan Engram (MCL) and Golden Tate (concussion) return to bolster his arsenal, Eli Manning’s greatest fantasy appeal applies to streamer situations for Philadelphia’s D/ST. The Eagles lead the NFL in quarterback hits (90), while far-more-athletic Daniel Jones faced pressure behind the Giants’ offensive line at the league’s second-highest rate (43%) in Weeks 3-13. Statuesque Manning is especially likely to struggle under duress in this hostile road affair. … Eli does return to a near-full arsenal on Monday night, giving Manning a chance to finish his career with a winning record currently deadlocked at 116-116. … Philly’s run-tough front is no secret, yet nor are Saquon Barkley’s struggles with four straight scoreless games and a generational 2.94 yards per carry since Week 2. After the Eagles, the G-Men host the Fins and Skins consecutively, so you couldn’t dream up a better stretch-run layup for sputtering Saquon.

Eli’s 2019 target distribution: Engram 21; Bennie Fowler 15; Barkley 13; Cody Latimer 12; Shepard 7; Cody Core and T.J. Jones 5; Rhett Ellison 2. … Injuries have prevented Engram from facing the Eagles since 2017, but he smashed them for stat lines of 8/101/0 > 5/45/0 in their first two meetings. Due back from his foot injury, Engram appears on track to start as an elite TE1 on Monday night. … As the Eagles’ secondary has surrendered 100-plus-yard performances to eight different wide receivers in 12 games, Tate, Shepard, and rookie Darius Slayton offer varying levels of fantasy intrigue with Shepard at the top based on his longstanding rapport with Eli, Tate close behind based on his highly productive 2019 play and revenge narrative versus Philly, and Slayton’s big-play potential with 4.39 jets against the Eagles’ slow secondary. I like Shepard as a locked-in WR2, Tate as a WR3, and Slayton as a boom-bust WR4/flex.

Last week’s QB8 score against the downtrodden Dolphins ended Carson Wentz’s streak of five straight fantasy results of QB17 or worse. Monday night gives Wentz a huge opportunity to build on last week’s improvement against a Giants defense that projects to provide Wentz a mostly-clean pocket, ranking 21st in sack rate (6.3%) and 18th in QB Hit Rate (15.5%). Facing the G-Men has been extremely profitable all year for passing games; eight straight quarterbacks to face DC James Bettcher’s unit have banked top-ten fantasy scores. … With Jordan Howard (stinger) still on the shelf and street FA Jay Ajayi posing nearly no threat for touches, Miles Sanders once again projects as Philadelphia’s every-down back after logging playing-time clips above 85% in three straight games entering Week 14. On average, the Giants are giving up 141.0 total yards per game to enemy backs, while Sanders’ bellcow usage has been barely threatened by teammates. He’s an upside RB2 with plus versatility in an unimposing Monday night spot.

Wentz’s Week 13 target distribution: Alshon Jeffery 16; Dallas Goedert 7; Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor 6; Sanders 5; Greg Ward 3; J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 2. … Even after a monster Week 13 versus Miami (9/137/1), Jeffery’s forward-thinking outlook is more complicated facing the Giants’ secondary. Janoris Jenkins has been Jeffery’s primary foe for years, yet Alshon’s last four stat lines versus the G-Men are 3/39/0 > 8/74/2 > 4/49/1 > 4/56/0. Alshon has moved back into WR2/3 territory. … My favorite Week 13 Eagles pass-catcher play is Agholor, who is popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. Agholor came off Philly’s Week 12 bye playing 88% of the team’s offensive snaps, and the Giants have been shredded in the slot all year. … Ertz (hamstring) played 74% of last week’s offensive snaps and isn’t even listed on this week’s injury report, putting Ertz right back into Week 14’s elite tight end mix. … Goedert’s arrow is pointing down with Philly’s wideouts becoming increasingly healthy, but the Eagles’ No. 2 tight end remains on fantasy’s TE1 fringe. Averaging 4.6 catches with three TDs over Philly’s last seven games, Goedert is never a terrible streamer. … Here’s how Week 13 Eagles pass-catcher routes run were distributed against Miami: Jeffery and Agholor 44; Ertz 38; Goedert 21; Ward 20; Arcega-Whiteside 14.

Score Prediction: Eagles 17, Giants 16