Each week in this space, we’ll look at how fantasy football ADP has changed across real-money drafts over the past week. The goal is to learn how drafters playing for cash prizes are reacting to news, injuries, and more to build their teams. Finally, at the bottom of the article, we will pull out the takeaways we think are important to understand from these moves.
To listen to a breakdown of this info in a short audio format, check out the Establish The Run Podcast (Episode released Monday afternoon).
We cover ADPs for Underdog Fantasy, FFPC, and NFFC. In the future, we will add “home league” ADP to this report.
The big moves this week center around the RB position as depth charts have become more clear:
- On NFFC, Isiah Pacheco is up 46.6 spots to 110 overall and RB39 while Ronald Jones is down 48.9 spots to 189 overall and RB64. We think the Pacheco hype is a little too much right now, viewing him as a double-digit round pick. Jones is forgettable in a lot of formats, but if you have a deep bench, he’s not a bad stash late. Take advantage of the market’s overconfidence, and if Jones is buried or gets cut without re-signing elsewhere, he’s an easy roster cut to begin the year.
- On Underdog, Antonio Gibson is the biggest faller in the Top 100, down 11.3 spots. We suspect the drop continues further with the news that Brian Robinson has pulled even with Gibson or potentially passed him as the primary base rusher. Gibson has enough talent to buy the dip on in Rounds 10-plus. Both backs are viable in that range, perhaps a little earlier on Robinson given the momentum of the situation.
- Dameon Pierce rested the last preseason game while Rex Burkhead and Marlon Mack played. It’s an ideal situation for a rookie to have made such an impression to move to the top of the depth chart in short order. He’s a stable pick on RB-light teams as an RB2 or even RB1 in the eighth round. On FFPC, Pierce has jumped 15 spots to 89 overall and RB32.
Other situations with meaningful moves:
- George Pickens and Romeo Doubs continue to see their ADP rise week after week. We’re okay chasing the hype here since our general strategy in managed leagues is to aim for upside with bench WRs, understanding that all picks in this range have a high bust rate, and we can replace low-to-mid scoring weeks via the waiver wire if necessary.
- Rhamondre Stevenson is the RB with ongoing hype. Our Adam Levitan was all over Stevenson early in the offseason, but he’s probably just a breakeven-type pick at his current ADP.
- Trey Sermon is now being drafted late, as he should. The 49ers’ backfield is a valuable one, and there’s uncertainty here both due to Elijah Mitchell‘s hamstring injury and an unclear pecking order on the RB depth chart behind Mitchell.