Gallagher’s NBA Matchups: October 4

Unfortunately, the Heat look like they’re gonna be shorthanded again, but at least Bam Adebayo (neck) might be out there. Per Tim Reynolds of AP, Bam has a better shot to play over Dragic and Bam has “some hope of finding a way onto the floor.” Chris Haynes of Yahoo! reports that Bam “plans to return.” In other words, Bam’s doubtful tag may be a little closer to questionable. Still, it’s not going to be easy for him to play. Dragic, on the other hand, may be out.

 

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-10), 7:30 pm ET
Team Totals: Heat 104.3, Lakers 114.3
Injury News: Goran Dragic (foot) is doubtful, Bam Adebayo (neck) is doubtful, Gabe Vincent is questionable, Anthony Davis (heel contusion) is probable, LeBron James (groin) is probable, and Danny Green (finger) is probable.
Heat Expected Starters: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Meyers Leonard
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard
Heat Rotation Notes: Herro played the final 33 minutes, Jimmy almost played the final 33 minutes, Olynyk played the final 17, Derrick Jones Jr. and Solomon Hill were out of the rotation the first half, Leonard only saw minutes to start each half, Duncan only saw a couple possessions in the final 19 with Nunn taking most of his minutes, Iguodala saw most of the closing minutes over Jae.
Lakers Rotation Notes: Not as much Green overlap with Kyle Kuzma after more in Game 1, Dwight didn’t see minutes outside of his half-opening stint. Caruso, KCP and Rondo closed.

Spo Quotes: When asked about what the world thinks about the impossible odds, he said, “We don’t give a shit what everybody else thinks.” When asked about not taking enough treys, he said the team rushed the offense and doesn’t want to play “prevent” offense, and he would’ve liked more treys. Spo called Jimmy a “supreme competitor” and stats won’t tell the story, but he has to take it to another level. Spo said he went to more zone because some of it was personnel and it was a different look for the defense, but he thought it wouldn’t have mattered because his team didn’t finish possessions. When asked about Herro and Olynyk, he said “we’re not going back” on Tyler Herro, and that obviously Olynyk had to play a lot of minutes.

Vogel Quotes: He liked how his team attacked and liked the quality of shots. He said there are “a few different alignments we want to get to out of the zone” that are favorable. He mentioned how the whole group can communicate where the holes are in the zone. Vogel said AD and LeBron are great passers with the ability to pass to each other, hit the open man, or score on the guy guarding them. When asked about the size advantage, he said the holes in the zone helped them offensive rebound and they were able to “punish” the Heat for using it. He said he likes having LeBron or Rondo out there to “quarterback the action.”

 

Overall Notes

*The Lakers made 12-of-28 wide-open attempts from three in Game 2. That’s more than double the playoff-low 10.7 per game the Heat allowed in the Eastern Conference (13 in Game 1).

*So far in the NBA Finals, the Heat are 10-of-48 on pull-up shots (24.0 eFG%, 20.8 FG%). Big yikes. The Lakers are 12-of-29 (48.3 eFG%, 41.4 FG%).

*The Lakers have 60.5 potential assists per game (62 in Game 2) and the Heat have just 46.5. In the Conference Finals, the Heat had 53.7, Lakers had 43.8, Celtics had 44.5 and Nuggets had 42.0.

*The Lakers were 28-of-38 (73.8%) in the paint and the Heat were 24-of-36 (66.7%).

 

Heat Notes

*Tyler Herro was much better on his pullup shots at 3-of-6 for a 58.3 eFG% after going 1-of-10 in Game 1. A problem here is he’s not being used off ball much with only one catch-and-shoot attempt in Game 2 after three in Game 1. Herro hasn’t been too bad at the rim with 5-of-9 makes and 2-of-2 in the corners, but he’s just 4-of-19 (23.7 eFG%) on the rest of his shots. He’s been just OK against KCP with four points in 21 partial possessions (41.0 eFG%), and good on Caruso with seven points in 13.9 partial possessions. Herro did get better looks in Game 2 with eight of his 12 coming uncontested, which is way up from 9-of-18 contested. Playing in the first unit more should help him, especially if Bam can go.

*Despite what some people might say, Jimmy Butler was very aggressive in Game 2. He had 24 drives in Game 2 for nine points and five assists. That’s way up from his 15.8 average (minutes boost helped), but Jimmy going just 3-of-9 on his drives really hurt his overall output. Butler also had the ball in his hands for 8.6 minutes at 5.24 seconds per touch, which crushes his previous averages in the playoffs of 5.4 minutes and 4.48 seconds per touch. From a shot standpoint, the Lakers made it tough on Jimmy Butler with just one uncontested make (1-of-6) to go with 6-of-11 contested. Even if Bam can go, Jimmy is really going to have to be aggressive and take it to another level, like Spo said. He has to eat, eat, eat LA for lunch, breakfast, dinner for the Heat to make this a series.

*Kelly Olynyk certainly wasn’t used like Bam on offense with just two screen assists (Jimmy with the only other one), but he was very effective around the basket at 6-of-6 while hitting a few threes.  His six at the rim were off a cut, an O board, a tough shot in the post, a PNR play, getting great position in the post and another cut before the Heat defense set. Hardly Bam territory with really only one bucket in a two-man game. He was a disaster on the defensive end and we knew that was gonna happen, but KO earned a role if Bam can’t go.

*Meyers Leonard saw all nine of his minutes out there on Dwight, and he didn’t get anything else besides his half-opening stints. The Heat defense didn’t really do anything to slow down the Lakers’ interior offense, so there might not be much of a reason to even start him — Dwight didn’t score with only one rebound in eight minutes while Olynyk was on the floor. If Dwight isn’t out there, there’s very little reason to play him. That could open Solomon Hill and Derrick Jones Jr., assuming no Bam.

*The Lakers have really taken Duncan Robinson out of it. We knew it was going to be tough for him with Bam because he runs so much DHO action. He ran one DHO with Olynyk and one with Jimmy, but the rest of them were on off-ball screens or hitting him as an open/semi-open shooter. The Lakers’ length really hurt him here, and he’ll need Bam back to revive him.

*Kendrick Nunn was not very active on ball with just 2.7 minutes of touch time (Herro 3.9, Butler 8.6), and he really only had one halfcourt possession where he was aggressive — he had a layup in transition. He never really got it going with his teammates, and the lack of chemistry on defense also really burned him. Still, without Bam out there to help Duncan, it makes sense to give Nunn minutes in the upper 20s again.

*Andre Iguodala obviously earned more minutes and the Heat need a better game out of Jae Crowder. Their roles won’t be too potent, but they should play more in Game 3 (Iggy 26 minutes in Game 2, Jae just 28).

 

Lakers Notes

*LeBron James just dominated again and did so in a more emphatic fashion. I will get ratio’d every time I say LeBron is the best passer ever, but he is. For the second game in a row, he had 21 potential assists as he continues to just shred the zone. He has a potential assist on 26.4% of his passes in this series, so he’s making them count. LeBron still isn’t really driving to break the defense down as much with nine drives in Game 2 and 14 in Game 1. He did have some downhill attempts where he would pull up along with some floaters, so he was a little more aggressive than the drive data suggests. He was assisted on the majority of his makes as the Lakers continue to move the ball extremely well. Bam’s potential return could cap LeBron’s upside a bit just because the Heat defense would vastly improve, but he should still crush again.

*Anthony Davis went off again, but he did it in a little different style. He was assisted on just seven of his 15 makes in Game 2 after nine of 11 in Game 1. In the first half, there were three really sweet plays from LeBron and Rondo to set AD up for three dunks.

 

Besides that, Game 2 was all about rebounding and AD had a whopping 11 offensive rebounding chances, converting eight of them. In the third quarter, there was a 1:15 stretch where AD scored a bucket off his own rebound three times. Not having Bam to take away the center of the defense is going to make it too easy for him. Miami has no answer.

*As Vogel mentioned, Rondo is the QB2 on this roster and it’s clear he wants him running the O while LeBron isn’t out there. Rondo had 16 potential assists in his 26 minutes (10 converted), and he just had 15 potential assists in Game 1 (four). In the Finals, his assists resulted in threes or shots at the rim on 11 of his 14 dimes. He’s huge in this second unit and the Heat coverages are leaving some big chances for dimes. Plus, he continues to hit open shots, making 5-of-7 uncontested in Game 2. Playoff Rondo is real.

*Dwight’s role didn’t expand again as the Lakers just got it rolling with their small-ball lineups. As mentioned after Game 1, Vogel wasn’t going to go with two bigs, and not having to deal with Bam made it less likely Dwight was going to be let loose against a floor-spacing KO. Even if Bam is back, Dwight got beat badly on the PNR/DHO action, so we can probably expect minutes in the teens again.

*Alex Caruso continues to earn his role, and looks to be more reliable than Kyle Kuzma as a bench option. KCP and Green also struggled a bit, and Green was especially bad at somehow going 1-of-8 on uncontested shots. 

Matchup Helps: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Rajon Rondo, Jimmy Butler, Kelly Olynyk (if Bam sits)
Matchup Hurts: Duncan Robinson (if Bam sits), JaVale McGee , Bam Adebayo (if he plays)

Note: It’s hard to say the matchup truly hurts so many after the defenses struggled so much.