What To Think About When You’re On The Clock In A Best Ball Draft

You’re on the clock…

in your best ball draft. 30 seconds are counting down and you have to make a quick choice. You’ve read countless articles and listened to what feels like a lifetime of podcasts, but there are still so many questions. What position should I take? What teams should I be considering? What type of player should I be drafting? How should I account for my rankings vs the ADP? All fair and important questions.

In this article, I’m presenting my Best Ball Decision Pyramid that I think can help anyone from the most beginner to advanced drafters when on the clock. The idea grew from a conversation between Adam Levitan, Michael Leone, and I shortly after the Week 17 schedule was released (and eventually resulted in this tweet by Adam) and is the culmination of my experiences and thinking while drafting. As I try to express these thoughts and back them up with data, I’ll be referencing research from the industry and particularly Leone’s Best Ball Mania Manifesto.

Editor’s note: this article is a 2024 refreshed article that Justin initially authored in 2023. The learnings remain relevant and the updates take into account additional lessons from 2023 and apply the overall thinking and player takes for this year’s drafts.

Despite the inaccuracy of the food pyramid we all grew up learning (honestly shocking we were taught each day we should eat six to 11 servings of carbohydrates such as bread, cereal, and pasta), I think the structure is a worthwhile method to convey my thinking. It is not linear or a decision tree where you must focus on one topic before another, but certain topics do hold greater weight in making decisions than others. For example, the basic fundamentals of roster construction remain the most pivotal to advance rates and should be strongly considered in any decision.

Roster Construction

The first thing you often learn when drafting is not what to do, but more so what not to do. With roster construction, that’s the most effective way to think about roster positions. We can highlight which roster constructions have had the highest advance rate year over year, and that is important to keep in mind, but it’s more critical to avoid the ones that continue to deliver negative rates.

TJ Hernandez revealed his research on the subject in a recent tweet. Stay within these general parameters to not over or underspend at a position. If you are building to a roster construction that is under expectation, it is best to be cognizant of this and consider why these teams often fail and how you