Impact of Pre-Snap Motion Usage on WR Efficiency

Pre-snap motion has been around the NFL for decades. Offenses use motion for various reasons: to gain insight into whether the defense is playing man or zone coverage, to audible to a play that is better suited to attack a specific defensive formation, to confuse a defense with poor communication abilities, or to allow an offensive player to reach their top speed at the snap of the ball.

During the 2023 NFL season, the sharpest offensive coordinators in the NFL took pre-snap motion to new heights. Pre-snap motion rates rose dramatically, and were particularly high for some of the NFL’s most creative, successful offenses, including the 49ers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Rams, and Packers. Furthermore, a specific type of pre-snap motion grew rapidly popular. As Jourdan Rodrigue highlighted in her article for The Athletic, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel schemed up a short “out-motion” or “cheat motion”, a concept which spread like wildfire through playbooks across the NFL.

In anticipation of the 2024 NFL season, more and more fantasy analysts are discussing the importance of pre-snap motion, particularly for the WR position. This article aims to thoroughly analyze the impact of pre-snap motion on passing efficiency and WR production. More specifically, I will unpack the historical impact of pre-snap motion on WR efficiency from 2021-2023, and then attempt to read some tea leaves to identify WRs that could be undervalued in 2024 as a result of increased pre-snap motion concepts in their offenses.

Definitions and Sources

Before diving into the analysis, I wanted to provide some basic info on how I’m defining pre-snap and “at-snap” motion. I realize this jargon might not be 100% consistent with how NFL coaches use these terms, but I found it useful for the purpose of this analysis:

• Pre-snap motion: when one player is moving from one spot to another either before the ball is snapped or when the ball is snapped
• At-snap motion: when one player is moving from one spot to another when the ball is snapped

Note that as defined, at-snap motion is a subset of pre-snap motion. In other words, pre-snap motion encompasses all types of individual player movement before the snap, but at-snap motion more narrowly captures plays where a player is in motion at the snap.

To avoid confusion, I will reiterate the “subset” point. All at-snap motion plays are also defined as pre-snap motion plays, but not all pre-snap motion plays are defined as at-snap motion. Just like all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares.

The data source for this analysis, unless stated explicitly otherwise, is Sports Info Solutions (SIS). SIS tracks granular route-level data (including tags for pre-snap/at-snap motion), which makes determining the impact of these motion concepts possible.

Too Long Don’t Want to Read; What are the Key Takeaways?

For ETR readers that don’t have the time to read thousands of words on pre-snap motion (trust me, I understand), I summarize the key takeaways below. While I encourage ETR subscribers to read the full article for further information and nuance, these takeaways are what I believe to be the most relevant for fantasy players looking to capitalize on pre-snap motion trends for their upcoming drafts.