Dynasty Outlook
March 28
Michael Mayer is our TE1 for rookie drafts and checks in as TE6 in our overall dynasty ranks. He is a three-year player, which is extremely rare at TE — and also tends to bode well for future success. On top of that, he was an excellent producer as a receiver in college. That isn’t an absolute necessity for finding success, but it certainly helps his profile a good bit. The biggest knock on Mayer is that his athleticism is not earth-shattering. Despite his versatile usage in college, there is some chance he gets locked into a more traditional TE role in the NFL. If he isn’t used as much in the slot, that could elongate his growth curve, and require some patience from dynasty gamers waiting for a breakout.
Profile Summary
Mayer has been one of the best age-adjusted producers at the TE position we have seen, and he did it at a major program in Notre Dame. The scouts noted his versatility, and it was reflected in his usage. He also managed to make an instant impact in college despite playing alongside another NFL talent. Mayer is not an electric athlete but has great contested-catch ability. His blocking ability should get him on the field right away.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/22) — 21.5
Experience — 3 years
By the Numbers
Mayer stepped on the scene as an immediate producer in his true freshman season, catching 42 balls for 450 yards and two scores. That was while playing alongside Tommy Tremble, who went on to be a third-round pick in the NFL Draft following the season. As a sophomore, he saw a huge spike in production, up to 71/840/7. In 2022 — his final season — the production of the Notre Dame passing offense went down overall, but Mayer’s share of the passing game went way up. He clearly improved every season.
There was a lot of versatility to Mayer’s collegiate alignment as well. For his career, he was in the slot 48.7% of the time, and out wide 12.6% according to PFF. That should create more opportunities to catch the football at the next level.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein believes Mayer is a safe, two-way TE:
Big combination tight end with the demeanor for run blocking and the size for tough, chain-moving catches underneath. Mayer will come into the league with better blocking technique than most tight ends in this year’s draft. He’s built for in-line duty and was an extension of the Notre Dame offensive line at times. His feet are a little heavy getting into and through his routes, but he has the hand strength and contact balance to win heavily contested catches on the first two levels. Mayer might need to polish his route running to become a high-volume target, but he’s a safe pick and will be a good pro who can become a plus player as a run blocker and pass catcher.
Daniel Jeremiah describes Mayer as a versatile player:
Mayer is a physical tight end with strong hands and value in the run game. He lines up in-line, on the wing, or flexed in the slot. He isn’t a sudden mover, but he understands how to set up defenders and utilizes his big frame to box out down the field. He’s excellent when making catches in congested areas. After the catch, he has the strength to drag tacklers for extra yards. He is a very dependable run blocker, as well. He latches on and runs his feet to create movement. Overall, Mayer doesn’t have elite athleticism, but he’s a complete tight end who will be ready to contribute right away.
Dane Brugler says Mayer excels at contested catches:
All four of the tight ends graded as top-32 prospects here will be valued differently, team to team. For an offense searching for a true Y tight end who can play inline as a blocker and win over the middle of the field as a pass catcher, Michael Mayer will be attractive in this range. He is one of the best contested-catch tight ends I have ever evaluated.
Draft Projection
Mayer currently has an expected draft position of 24 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Mayer 22nd overall. He went 29th in Jeremiah’s most recent mock, and 21st in Brugler’s. Mayer is likely a late first-round pick, who could slip into the early portion of Day 2.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Mayer’s combination of production and age makes it difficult to find closely related comps. It is worth noting that all of his comparable players fall below 80% in similarity. With that said, we still see some positive indicators. T.J. Hockenson and Tyler Eifert represent quality ceiling outcomes, with the former finally breaking out this season and the latter being a great fantasy asset when healthy. Greg Dulcich also had strong production for a rookie TE.
Brevin Jordan, Harrison Bryant, and Jace Sternberger are the busts. They have done relatively nothing in their careers, though Mayer is going to go well before any of them did in their respective drafts. Fred Davis, David Njoku, and Marcedes Lewis have managed to post a couple of good seasons, but they also have not been stars (we’ll see on Njoku). Isaiah Likely is someone that most people think is good, but he is clearly blocked by a better player right now in Baltimore.
Further Research
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7H9WNTug7w
