Mining Matchups: DFS Nuggets Using Silva’s Column
Some of the most common feedback we get at ETR is how to put the content we offer into practice for DFS. To help with this, our staff has pulled out interesting nuggets from Evan Silva’s Matchups Column and will combine them with DFS-specific insights and analysis. All salaries referred to in this column are on DraftKings. All projected ownership numbers can be found here.
1. As the Bengals rank bottom two in sacks (9) and QB hits (26), this game sets up well for Marquise Brown to get open deep. Cincinnati has allowed the NFL’s fifth-most completions of 20-plus yards and an AFC-high 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Brown is an upside WR3 play in this plus draw.
Marquise Brown ($5100, 5-8%) is priced high enough to where he will not draw significant ownership, making him at least a reasonable contrarian piece to stack with Lamar Jackson ($7300, 13-16%). Mark Andrews ($5200, 5-8%) is also overpriced compared to his recent opportunity and production, but has as much upside as any TE on the slate except for Travis Kelce. We aren’t quite sure what to do with the Ravens beyond knowing Lamar Jackson ($7300, 13-16%) is a good play, and we suspect others will feel the same way. Jackson is definitely in the conversation to play solo, but we wouldn’t shy away from including either of these options as well.
On the other side of the ball, Tyler Boyd ($4700, 5-8%) hasn’t lived up to expectations and is dealing with extreme uncertainty at quarterback. However, the price is excellent, bringing him into the conversation as a viable play. Auden Tate ($4000, 0-1%) is not a sexy play, but should go completely overlooked if looking for an ultra-contrarian option that’s also checking in as an acceptable value play.
2. Breshad Perriman is a sensible dart throw after he operated as Tampa Bay’s clear-cut No. 3 wideout in last week’s loss to Seattle, drew eight targets, and caught a touchdown pass off a deflection. Perriman has run 40-plus routes in each of the Bucs’ last two games.
Perriman is not coming in as a highly projected option, which should ensure he isn’t overly used. What is appealing about him mostly is his salary, which at stone minimum is obviously useful given the context of this slate. We don’t really like him as a standalone play as much as part of game stacks. It seems like every week there are multiple Tampa players coming in as excellent options, and this week is no different. Mike Evans ($7600, 26-30%), Chris Godwin ($7300, 17-20%), and Ronald Jones ($4300, 26-30%) are playable in any format, but should all be a part of GPP teams that go contrarian at other positions as they will be quite popular.
3a. QB-proof Tyreek Hill’s 16-game pace over his last four is 80/1,480/16 (18.5 YPR) with Matt Moore at the helm. Hill should destroy a Titans secondary unequipped to cover him even before losing CB Malcom Butler to a fractured wrist.
3b. The Chiefs have been unable to create pressure under first-year DC Steve Spagnuolo, ranking 20th in QB Hit Rate (14.6%). Ryan Tannehill ranks No. 8 among 36 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating on clean-pocket throws (115.0).
It’s hard to believe, but given the extreme lack of value on the slate, Tannehill ($5100, 2-4%) is actually coming in as a cash-game viable quarterback on DK. We aren’t completely sold there, but think he’s extremely viable in tournaments. We would expect to see plenty of combinations of A.J Brown ($4300, 26-30%), Adam Humphries ($3500, 9-12%) and Jonnu Smith ($3500, 5-8%) on the other side of Chiefs stacks. If looking to go somewhat contrarian in this game, the RB position might be the best place to look, with both Derrick Henry ($6400, 9-12%) and Damien Williams ($4900, 2-4%) checking in as acceptable but not excellent values, while carrying obvious risks players tend to shy away from.
4. This sets up as an extreme-volume spot for Golden Tate, who has six-plus catches in four straight games and dropped 6/102/1 on the typically impenetrable Patriots secondary when Engram and Shepard missed Week 6.
Tate ($5900, 9-12%) is a strong play, and there are a lot of other secondary plays in this game that are viable for tournaments. Daniel Jones ($5700, 5-8%) rates as solid value at QB, making stacks with Tate, Saquon Barkley ($8800, 17-20%), Darius Slayton ($4200, 2-4%), and Rhett Ellison ($2500, 21-25%) all reasonable options.
There are some quality options to bring-it-back, with Le’Veon Bell ($6900, 5-8%), Jamison Crowder ($5000, 5-8%) and Robby Anderson ($4700, 9-12%) being enticing either from a value and ownership (Bell and Crowder) or low ownership with reasonable upside (Anderson) perspective. We think in large-field GPP only, stacking this game makes some sense.
5. Cooper Kupp easily draws the Rams’ best Week 10 skill-player matchup; Pittsburgh’s biggest pass-defense deficiency is on interior routes, where it’s permitted 585 yards and six TDs on 80 slot targets (7.3 YPA) this year.
There’s no doubt Kupp is a solid play, and should catch less ownership than obvious top WR targets like Michael Thomas, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. However, this won’t be totally off the radar. We like Kupp as an acceptable tournament play, just below a primary target, and the good news is that there doesn’t appear to be any other players in the game who will be heavily owned, making any game-stack you make a contrarian option. With Juju Smith-Schuster’s ($5800, 0-1%) late-week injury a concern, we aren’t yet sure if he is a viable play, but we are sure he won’t be a popular one. If he’s playing, we think he’ll be an extremely sneaky bring-it-back option if playing any Rams, but make sure to check Juju’s injury status.