Each week in this space, we’ll look at how ADP has changed over the past week in the industry. We’re looking at ADP over the last seven days compared to ADP the previous 8-14 days.
*Visuals provided by Sam Hoppen.
FFPC FBG ADP Change
NFFC OC ADP Change
Underdog ADP Change
This week’s risers
1. Darrell Henderson‘s ADP continues to settle. He’s the top riser on Underdog, moving from the sixth round (65.9) all the way up to the early fifth round (49). We have him ranked 39th overall, making him an excellent option in most formats on that site in the fourth round. We are, however, avoiding him in the Best Ball Mania II for game theory reasons.
2. Elijah Moore (up to 98.3 on Underdog from 111.1) is a good example of a player we like but are out on after a certain cost. The hype is so huge, that we now have him ranked behind ADP on UD and on NFFC (up to 106.7 from 117.9) and FFPC (up to 105.3 from 116.0) as well. However, in more casual leagues, we remain well ahead of ADP.
3. We’re starting to see the WR hype shift over to NFFC where some Year 2 breakout targets are moving inside the Top 100: Chase Claypool (59.9 from 67.2), Jerry Jeudy (65.9 from 70.5), and Laviska Shenault (86.4 from 89.8). Those shifts make sense given NFFC’s three-WR format. I recently walked through an NFFC Online Championship team I drafted. A similar occurrence is taking place on FFPC where Claypool is up to 62.4 from 68.0 and Brandon Aiyuk is up to 54.8 from 57.7.
4. Randall Cobb is rising following reuniting with Aaron Rodgers. He’s up to 172.6 from 190.7 on NFFC and up to 148.2 from 172 on Underdog. Evan Silva has Cobb all the way up to 125 his recent Top 150.
5. With positive camp news, our offseason favorite Trey Lance is on the move. He’s up to 113.0 from 120.8 on UD and up to 131.2 from 140.8 on FFPC. We love Lance’s upside and are still buying at this price, especially in redraft where we’re fans of a Late-Round Upside QB approach. If Lance continues to have a strong camp and his odds of starting early in the season increase (possibly as soon as Week 1), we could see the ADP further skyrocket.
This week’s fallers
1. Injuries to Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson are having big impacts on the Colts’ ADPs. Michael Pittman (94.4 from 105.3 UD), Jonathan Taylor (13.7 from 6.7 NFFC, 15.0 from 11.8 FFPC), T.Y. Hilton (153.6 from 137.8 UD, 163.5, 147.1 FFPC), and Parris Campbell (156.8 from 140.7 UD, 180.4 from 153.7 NFFC, 198.2 from 178.7 FFPC) have all experienced meaningful drops in ADP. It’s a scary situation right now, but there’s a chance this is an overreaction if Wentz and Nelson are able to return somewhat early in the season. Brandon Thorn just released his OL rankings and has the Colts 11th, but suspects they’ll move up in his midseason update. We’ve dropped JT to the second round, but anywhere there he represents massive upside in Hero RB builds. We’re slightly behind market on the Colts’ WR trio, but if the ADP slides continue, we’re fine stopping those slides a round or so after current ADP.
2. Ironically, Mike Davis cracks the top fallers list on UD (down to 61.4 from 56.4) but the top risers list on NFFC (up to 57.9 from 65.2). It’s ironic because Davis has more utility in best ball leagues where early-season projectable volume and base weekly points within the right structure are more valuable. He’s a pass for me in NFFC’s three-WR, managed format, but I’ll be dipping my toes into the sixth-round Davis price on UD in the right builds.
3. Kenny Golladay has a hamstring injury that is resulting in his ADP dropping across the industry (69.9 from 62.6 FFPC, 66.4 from 59.5 NFFC, 62.3 from 53.1 UD). We’ve been a little wary of Golladay all offseason. Currently, we’re in line with his positional ADP on UD, but Golladay is still overvalued on full PPR sites like NFFC and FFPC. He’s never shown an ability to earn a big target share, and this likely won’t be a high-volume pass offense.
4. Injuries are also impacting Devonta Smith. He’s expected to miss a couple of weeks with an MCL injury. Smith was one of the players we were furthest behind market on inside the Top 100, and that remains the case. If you’re buying the rookie, though, the ADP has dropped about a round across the industry: 84.3 from 75.6 FFPC, 80.8 from 73.2 NFFC, 76.7 from 67.4 UD.
What I’m watching now
I’m keeping my eyes on redraft QB ADP. Right now, my strategy in these formats is to draft two high-upside QBs in the double-digit rounds, usually not at least until Round 12. It’s easier to do while Trey Lance‘s ADP is in check and that we’ve seen a surprising fall in Joe Burrow‘s ADP, at least on NFFC (131.3 from 109.5). There’s a dynamic where there’s such a strong tier of high-end QBs (particularly the top six or so) that they get selected early regardless of what’s available late. This helps Late-Round QB drafters in two ways. First of all, their edge in waiting is increased if other drafters are using high opportunity cost on elite QBs. Secondly, if other drafters are using high picks on a QB, it generally means they aren’t taking a second QB until very late, if at all. That opens the door to draft a slipping Burrow type or two of the volatile options like Lance (140.2 NFFC ADP), Trevor Lawrence (136.6), Justin Fields (155.3), Deshaun Watson (188.7), and Taysom Hill (231.7) with some strong values as backstops like Tua Tagovailoa (211.7), Baker Mayfield (185.3), and Zach Wilson (237.4).
