NOTABLE INACTIVES (Will be updated after official inactives):
Editor’s Note: To review our thoughts on general Showdown strategy, review the top portion of this article.
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & 2019 TRENDS
The most important part to being successful in one-game Showdown contests is constructing a highly correlated lineup built around how we think the game will be played. Closing out the 2019-20 season with a Super Bowl matchup that features the Chiefs and 49ers, we have a 54-game sample that we can analyze for winning roster construction and look at any meaningful trends to apply as we close out the Showdown season. The winning lineups for all 54 games are as follows:
Packers at Bears ($47700 Salary Used) (191.66% Total Ownership): Captain Allen Robinson, Aaron Rodgers, Tarik Cohen, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Jimmy Graham, Packers DST – Lineup entered (3) times
Steelers at Patriots ($46100) (223.0%): Captain Tom Brady, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Stephen Gostkowski, Rex Burkhead – (1)
Texans at Saints ($49900) (244.79%): Captain Deandre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., Kenny Stills, Will Lutz – (13)
Broncos at Raiders ($49000) (240.32%): Captain Josh Jacobs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cortland Sutton, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller, Brandon McManus – (1)
Buccaneers at Panthers ($48500) (225.70%): Captain Chris Godwin, Cam Newton, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen, Joey Slye – (1)
Eagles at Falcons ($49300) (253.86%): Captain Julio Jones, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins
Browns at Jets ($48300) (237.27%): Captain Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb, Le’Veon Bell, Browns DST, Austin Seibert, D’ernest Johnson – (4)
Titans at Jaguars ($48600) (258.3%): Captain Marcus Mariota, Leonard Fournette, Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark Jr., Jaguars DST, Adam Humphries – (1)
Rams at Browns ($49700) (238.92%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Nick Chubb, Browns DST, Greg Zuerlein –
Bears at Redskins ($50000) (235.64%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum, Terry McLaurin, Bears DST, Paul Richardson Jr., Taylor Gabriel – (11)
Eagles at Packers ($47300) (245.93%): Captain Jordan Howard, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison – (4)
Cowboys at Saints ($47800) (231.88%): Captain Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliot, Cowboys DST, Will Lutz, Saints DST – (3)
Bengals at Steelers ($48700) (198.22%): Captain James Conner, Mason Rudolph, Joe Mixon, Diontae Johnson, Steelers DST, Jaylen Samuels – (1)
Rams at Seahawks ($50000) (273.06%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Chris Carson, Gerald Everett, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Greg Zuerlein – (748)
Colts at Chiefs ($47200) (241.73%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jacoby Brissett, Marlon Mack, Colts DST, Byron Pringle – (1)
Browns at 49ers ($46400) (239.74%): Captain Matt Breida, Jarvis Landry, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, 49ers DST – (4)
Giants at Patriots ($46700) (322.95%): Captain Patriots DST, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, James White, Brandon Bolden – (53)
Steelers at Chargers ($44700) (198.69%): Captain James Conner, Phillip Rivers, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Benny Snell Jr., Steelers DST – (1)
Lions at Packers ($49800) (265.43%): Captain Matt Prater, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson, Jamaal Williams – (23)
Chiefs at Broncos ($47000) (225.37%): Captain Chief DST, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman – (1)
Eagles at Cowboys ($46300) (231.89%): Captain Ezekiel Elliot, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Cowboys DST, Dallas Goedert, Brett Maher – (4)
Patriots at Jets ($48800) (242.5%): Captain Patriots DST, Julian Edelman, Sony Michel, James White, Phillip Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas – (73)
Redskins at Vikings ($49900) (262.92%): Captain Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Vikings DST, Adrian Peterson, Dan Bailey, Dustin Hopkins – (343)
Packers at Chiefs ($49600) (244.78%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman – (2)
Dolphins at Steelers ($49700) (259.67%): Captain JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Diontae Johnson, Allen Hurns, Chris Boswell – (8)
49ers at Cardinals ($48800) (252.12%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Jimmy Garappolo, Kyler Murray, George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Andy Isabella – (2)
Patriots at Ravens ($49600) (236.43%): Captain Julian Edelman, Lamar Jackson, James White, Mark Ingram III, Mohamed Sanu, Nick Boyle – (1)
Cowboys at Giants ($48200) (215.3%): Captain Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Daniel Jones, Cowboys DST, Jason Witten, Brett Maher – (3)
Chargers at Raiders ($49600) (284.1%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Phillip Rivers, Josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Raiders DST – (12)
Vikings at Cowboys ($49600) (215.38%): Captain Randall Cobb, Dalvin Cook, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr. – (3)
Seahawks at 49ers ($49900) (240.23%): Captain Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers DST, Deebo Samuel, Jacob Hollister – (24)
Steelers at Browns ($49100) (219.24%): Captain Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Samuels, Mason Rudolph, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Browns DST – (2)
Bears at Rams ($49800) (290.15%): Captain Todd Gurley II, Cooper Kupp, Mitchell Trubisky, Taylor Gabriel, Rams DST, Tarik Cohen – (59)
Chiefs at Chargers ($49500) (182.25%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Phillip Rivers, Hunter Henry, LeSean McCoy – (14)
Colts at Texans ($49900) (258.29%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Jonathan Williams, Eric Ebron, Ka’imi Fairbairn – (144)
Packers at 49ers ($46200) (217.84%): Captain George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams, Raheem Mostert, Chase McLaughlin – (1)
Ravens at Rams ($49800) (196.98%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Marquise Brown, Robert Woods, Willie Snead IV, Tyler Higbee – (15)
Saints at Falcons: Captain Matt Ryan, Saints DST, Russell Gage, Alvin Kamara, Will Lutz, Calvin Ridley – (1)
Patriots at Texans ($49400) (256.39%): Captain Duke Johnson, Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Julian Edelman, James White, Kenny Stills – (74)
Vikings at Seahawks ($49700) (251.83%): Captain Rashaad Penny, Russell Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Kirk Cousins, David Moore – (22)
Cowboys at Bears ($49400) (232.33%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Ezekiel Elliot, Allen Robinson II, Michael Gallup, Anthony Miller, J.P. Holtz – (2)
Giants at Eagles ($47000) (200.3%): Captain Darius Slayton, Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Boston Scott – (1)
Jets at Ravens ($49300) (212.82%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Mark Andrews, Jamison Crowder, Seth Roberts, Miles Boykin – (15)
Bills at Steelers ($47100) (262.26%): Captain Bills DST, Josh Allen, James Conner, John Brown, James Washington, Nick Vannett – (4)
Colts at Saints ($47500) (248.77%): Captain Michael Thomas, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Will Lutz, Taysom Hill, Jordan Wilkins – (1)
Rams at 49ers ($49600) (241.43%): Captain Tyler Higbee, Jared Goff, George Kittle, Robert Woods, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks – (4)
Chiefs at Bears ($49400) (252.12%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Allen Robinson, Damien Williams, Harrison Butker, Javon Wims – (7)
Packers at Vikings ($47600) (202.83%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Packers DST, Mason Crosby, Ameer Abdullah
49ers at Seahawks ($49900) (198.36%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Russell Wilson, Raheem Mostert, DK Metcalf, Travis Homer, Kyle Juszczyk
Titans at Patriots ($49000) (218.14%): Captain Derrick Henry, Julian Edelman, James White, Rex Burkhead, Titans DST, Nick Folk – (1)
Seahawks at Eagles ($46400) (225.92%): Captain DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Dallas Goedert, Marshawn Lynch, Jake Elliot, Seahawks DST
Titans at Ravens ($50000) (225.02%): Captain Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Hayden Hurst, Kalif Raymond – (9)
Seahawks at Packers ($49800) (240.48%): Captain Davante Adams, Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, Tyler Lockett, Jason Myers, Luke Willson – (3)
Packers at 49ers ($49600) (257.82%): Captain Raheem Mostert, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, 49ers DST, Robbie Gould – (30)
When we review winning lineups we can think backwards and determine what game script ideas and correlations went into constructing each roster. In the week nine MNF matchup, we knew it would be contrarian to build a lineup assuming Dallas scored only through the air and fade Ezekiel Elliot, who projected to be the highest owned player on the slate. With Prescott at Captain and multiple Dallas pass catchers in the FLEX spots, it made sense to get a piece of the Giants pass game as there would be increased pass volume in a come from behind effort. After the core was locked in it was all about maximizing points. We had very little appealing value on this slate and we know as dropbacks increase so do the opportunities for defenses to produce fantasy points via strip sacks and interceptions making the Dallas DST an exceptional play. A flukey late game defensive touchdown was the icing on the cake for the winning lineup Monday night. While it’s impossible to do on full-slates, building rosters or setting groups around an expected outcome is often the optimal strategy on one-game Showdown slates. We encourage you to look through the other winning rosters listed above and think through the process that would lead to each construction.
DST & KICKER STRATEGY
Now on 28-of-54 (52%) winning rosters, DST’s continue to be deserving of roster consideration. Through 54 slates DST’s are averaging 7.8 DraftKings points at a $4200 average salary and 20.8% ownership. If we break this down further by favorites versus underdogs, we see favorites priced up to $5000 and owned at a 28.9% clip as opposed to just $3400 and 12.7% ownership for underdogs. To this point, the highest owned DST’s (Bears, Patriots, Vikings and Steelers) have paid off by finding their way onto the winning roster but because DST scoring is extremely high variance and scoring events like turnovers and defensive touchdowns are largely unpredictable, we may be able to leverage the field by rostering the cheaper, lesser owned option. It’s worth further noting that DST’s in higher total games are underowned relative to their probability of ending up on winning lineups. DST’s on Showdown slates featuring a total greater than 45 have been owned on average 16.3% and maintained a 7.3 median DraftKings score.
Kickers have been just slightly less productive than DST’s from a raw points perspective and have found their way onto 23-of-54 (43%) winning rosters. Kickers remain one of the best points per dollar plays, scoring an impressive 7.5 DraftKings points on average at $3600 and 22.4% ownership. If we look at all fantasy performances through seven weeks we see that DST’s offer a wider range of outcomes and a higher ceiling than kickers due to the ability to score points via touchdowns. Thus far kickers have been priced “reasonably” by DraftKings, resulting in adequate or better point per dollar median projections. If prices start to rise, or if ownerships rise, these options become less viable GPP picks. Conversely, DraftKings has shown a willingness to aggressively change pricing based on matchup and opposing team total for DST’s. Whether we’re MME players or building just a single lineup, the ability of similarly priced players to outscore both kickers and DST’s will determine how often we need to roster either position. Read through our ‘notable players’ section for more slate specific thoughts on kickers and DST’s.
TEAM-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS & NOTABLE PRICE CONSIDERATIONS
Super Bowl LIV brings together contrasting styles with the Chiefs taking on the 49ers as 1-point favorites in a 54.5-point total, up three points since the line opened. With two weeks for the DFS community to prepare we can be sure every angle of the year’s biggest game will be covered but there are still edges to be had in identifying potential game script correlations, low-owned players and optimal roster construction in an effort to take down DraftKings largest Showdown prize. HC Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco offense takes their 29th-ranked situation-neutral pass rate (52%) to South Beach showing no signs of changing course with an astonishing 39% pass rate in one-score games since week 17. The key to this slate lies solely on the right arm of Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City offense and their ability to force the 49ers into a pass-heavy game script. Albeit over a small sample size, Shanahan has shown a sensitivity to game script, calling a pass on 59% of plays when trailing by any margin and a healthy 66% of plays when trailing by double digits. Conversely, the Chiefs own the league’s second-ranked situation-neutral pass rate (64%). In a scenario where the Chiefs jump out to a quick lead, we can expect a modest drop in pass attempts from 64% to 54%, still well above league average, which would result in a slight downgrade for Mahomes and Chiefs pass catchers. With a featured contest of nearly 500,000 entries, projecting for an unexpected outcome is an easy way to immediately differentiate your lineup from the field. Nearly 75% of the money is backing the Chiefs, making it less likely the public is going to build for the 49ers to win in convincing fashion. If San Francisco is able to jump out to an early lead and hold on unlike Houston and Tennessee before them we can project increased rush volume for all 49ers backs and a notable increase in pass volume for Kansas City, bringing fringe pass catchers into play as viable flex options.
Operating as spectators in their first two playoff victories, prices on 49ers pass catchers have varied wildly, while Deebo Samuel’s ($7600) salary has maintained some level of normalcy. Samuel has not so quietly become the team’s WR1 to close out the season, earning a 24% target share to go along with a 30% share of the team’s air yards over the past six weeks. Five straight box score duds has caused Emmanuel Sanders ($5200) salary to plummet, now priced $3300 below his season average. Despite a middling 17% target share over the final six weeks, Sanders did outpace Samuel in share of air yards (31% to 30%). Over that same timeframe, Sanders saw more air yards in 4-of-6 games making him a live bet to outscore Samuel straight up. The wild card of the group, Kendrick Bourne ($3400) promptly saw his price return to palatable levels after spiking to $6000 in last week’s NFC Championship game. Bourne’s opportunities have a strong correlation with game script as Shanahan is more than happy to use 12 and/or 21 personnel to salt away the clock when playing with a lead. His 14% target share and 16% share of the team’s air yards are both marks capable of landing him in optimal builds, particularly in game scripts where we project the 49ers to fall behind early. The discounts continue for George Kittle ($8400), where the 49ers top pass catcher checks in with his lowest price tag since week 12 when he went for 6/129/1 on six targets. Kittle maintains a team-leading 28% target share to go along with a 26% share of the team’s air yards. With a matchup against a Chiefs secondary that allowed 102/1026/7 on 151 targets this season upcoming, Kittle is in a prime spot to bounce back and projects as one of the top overall plays on the slate. Injuries have played a major role in determining production at the running back position over the 49ers two playoff victories. In last week’s NFC Championship game, Raheem Mostert ($9400) started incredibly hot before being the direct beneficiary of a Tevin Coleman ($6400) shoulder injury. In Coleman’s absence Mostert set career highs in snap share (82%) and share of the team’s rushing attempts (73%) en route to an absurd 29/220/4 rushing line. It’s worth noting, in back-to-back games where the team suffered injuries at the RB position, Matt Breida ($3200) saw just 17% and 3% of the team’s rushing attempts, respectively. Priced around options who project better from a pt/$ perspective and are far more likely to access a ceiling, we can largely avoid Breida if Coleman is healthy. If the backfield is intact, both Mostert and Coleman feel overpriced for their median projections given their end of season roles where Mostert led the backfield with a 59% snap share and handled 50% of the rushing attempts. As has been the case for much of the season, we need one running back to handle a lion’s share of the carries in order to provide a Captain-worthy performance. Having attempted just 23.7 passes per game over his last seven, Jimmy Garoppolo ($8000) joins a list of Duck Hodges, Trevor Siemian and Case Keenum who have all been priced at the QB floor on DraftKings this season. In builds where we project the 49ers to approach a 60-65% pass rate in a come from behind effort, Garoppolo has shown the ability to put up fantasy-viable performances on increased volume.
Following a strong AFC Championship game performance, Tyreek Hill ($11000) was the recipient of an $800 price increase despite a matchup against the league’s top pass defense. Hill’s 23% target share to go along with a 40% share of the team’s air yards in games he’s started and finish presents a consistent path for outlier performances and the elevated price tag should act to reduce his Captain ownership relative to other options on his own team. Sammy Watkins ($7000) finally came through for everyone who hadn’t lost faith after chasing his week one 50 fantasy point performance all year. In a disappointing season, Watkins maintained a 20% target share and 22% share of the team’s air yards and managed to lead the team in both categories on four separate occasions. While his flex ownership projects to be fairly efficient, there may be some merit in rostering Watkins as our Captain given his likelihood to finish as the slate’s top overall scorer compared to his projected Captain ownership. Behind Watkins, everyone’s favorite WR3, Mecole Hardman ($2200), finally appeared to leapfrog Demarcus Robinson ($2600) on the Chiefs pecking order last week, playing more snaps (40% to 37%) and running more routes (44% to 37%). Unfortunately, Hardman was already higher owned than Robinson last week (23.85% to 10.87%). With buzz continuing to grow around the dynamic rookie we could see him 3x as owned in the Super Bowl but not nearly as likely to outscore him. Travis Kelce ($9600) remains the Chiefs best bet at creating mismatches against a stout San Francisco pass defense. On the season, Kelce leads the team with a 24% target share and 36 red zone targets. We give Kelce the slight nod over Hill as our favorite Chiefs pass catcher and would prefer him as our Captain if deciding between the two in a single lineup. Freshly minted bell cow running back, Damien Williams ($9800) has played on 75% of snaps and handled 79% of the backfield’s rushing attempts since week 16. Over that same period, he’s run a route on 72% of dropbacks and handled all four of the team’s rushing attempts inside the five yard line. Any RB with a legitimate three down + goal line role in an offense projected to score 27.5 points is worthy of Captain consideration. With so much of the field focused on the Chiefs passing attack we can create highly leveraged unique lineups if we think a majority of the scoring comes via the ground. As is the case with virtually every Showdown slate involving the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes ($12600) is the most likely player to finish as the top overall scorer and will rightfully be owned as such. The biggest concern for Mahomes, as Brandon Thorn noted in his DL/OL mismatches column, is the 49ers ability to disrupt the pocket, ranking second in adjusted sack rate, second in pressure percentage, first in QB hurry percentage and third in sacks per pass attempt. Fortunately, Mahomes has fared well against pressure ranking second in QB rating, completing 67% of his passes. The most intriguing matchup on paper will be Mahomes cannon vs. the 49ers elite deep ball defense. Whether or not Kansas City is able to get one of their speedsters behind the San Francisco secondary will likely be key in determining which of the many high priced skill players is the optimal Captain.
*Captain Patrick Mahomes, 2-3 Chiefs Pass Catchers, Emmanuel Sanders – We’re not trying to reinvent the wheel simply because we’re competing against 470,000 entries. Creating unique, highly correlated lineups is still possible while rostering many of the slate’s best plays. One way to be different in our Captain Mahomes lineups is to pair him with two non Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce pass catchers and expect the receiving production to go to secondary or tertiary options.
*Captain Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Kendrick Bourne – Reid is innovative enough to move Hill all over the formation, lining him up in the slot on 54% of his routes. He’ll likely avoid a lot of one-on-one coverage against shutdown CB Richard Sherman and even against the zone-heavy San Francisco defense Hill is capable of finding soft spots and busting big plays.
*Captain Damien Williams, Patrick Mahomes, George Kittle – Pairing Williams with Mahomes gives us access to a majority, if not all of the Chiefs touchdown equity with the added benefit that our lineups are inherently unique by being forced to fade one or both of Hill/Kelce. If Williams is on the receiving end of a nearly unguardable wheel route we lap anyone who rostered the Chiefs primary pass catchers.
*Captain Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Tevin Coleman – Kelce owns the best projection of everyone on the slate not named Patrick Mahomes. He and Reid are capable of exploiting a 49ers tight end defense that looks better on paper having faced very few legitimate receiving threats at the position this season.
*Captain George Kittle, Damien Williams, Exclude Jimmy Garoppolo – Like Davante Adams in the Divisional Round, Julian Edelman in last year’s Super Bowl and countless other examples we saw during the regular season, Kittle presents the type of volume upside that could see him end as the slate’s top overall scorer and not need to be paired with Garoppolo.
*Captain Raheem Mostert, Patrick Mahomes, Demarcus Robinson – The 2019-20 field is too sharp to allow a 50-point fantasy performance to greatly influence their lineup building decisions so we don’t expect Mostert’s Captain ownership to get out of hand. A trendy game script for this slate involves the Chiefs jumping out to a lead and forcing the 49ers to abandon the run. With an incredibly tight spread and little evidence to indicate that Shanahan will give up on his ground game if they do fall behind, there is some value in projecting Mostert to continue to work as the team’s clear lead back and for the 49ers to continue Establishing It.
*Captain Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Damien Williams – There’s a case to be made, like Kittle listed above him, that Samuel could be the optimal Captain without needing to be paired with Garoppolo given his rushing equity. In this construction we’re getting low enough ownership on our Captain that we can afford to play higher probability plays in some of our flex spots.
Notable Players not already listed as Captain above:
If a player is listed above as a Captain option or as part of a stack they are worth rostering as a stand alone flex as well. As discussed above the need to roster kickers and DST’s is tied to how many rosterable players we have in the same salary range. Because DraftKings is unwilling to price up kickers to a level that would reflect their median projections, we’re left with very few players who are priced around them that present the opportunity to outscore them. Pricing on DST’s has been slightly more fluid based on the matchup and opposing team’s total but they too remain underpriced relative to their median projections. While constructing rosters, consider the game environment/outcome necessary for these cheap players to beat the kickers and/or DST’s.
Jimmy Garoppolo – It appears Shanahan is content to keep the ball out of Garoppolo’s hands for as long as possible but in the weeks 9, 11 and 14 shootouts where he reached a 30+ point ceiling, he dropped back 42 times on average. If the Chiefs can turn this game into a track meet, as some are expecting, Garoppolo can turn in a strong performance.
Sammy Watkins – Watkins has led the team in either target share or air yards in 27% of the games he’s played. There’s an outside path to him being the optimal Captain or more likely an underowned receiver to pair with Mahomes.
Tevin Coleman – Ideally for Coleman backers, he would remain questionable up until inactives are made official keeping his ownership low. Though Mostert is the more likely of the two to take over the backfield, Coleman is capable of paying off his price tag if he approaches a 40% share of the team’s rushing workload.
Emmanuel Sanders – The price gap between Samuel and Sanders is wide enough that we’re willing to take some shots on Sanders if the ownership projects similarly. Though Samuel has been a better late-season producer, the opportunity split is close enough that Sanders could pay off a depressed price tag.
Harrison Butker/Robbie Gould – Both Gould and Butker project favorably on this slate and with so much of the offensive production concentrated around the top options on each team, they’re two of the best pt/$ plays in this range. As is the case on almost all slates, we’re excluding them from our Captain position.
49ers DST – As noted in Thorn’s DL/OL mismatches article, San Francisco ranks near the top in every major pressure metric and owns favorable matchups against 4-of-5 Chiefs offensive linemen. When we select DST’s it’s not on the prayer they pitch a shutout, rather a calculated decision to roster a group that is capable of creating havoc that could lead to sacks, turnovers and, if we land on the right side of variance, an occasional defensive touchdown.
Kendrick Bourne – Bourne’s playing time remains largely dependent on game script as he’s played on just 28% of snaps during the 49ers two playoff victories. Despite the reduced playing time, Bourne’s run a route on 53% of Garoppolo dropbacks and maintained a 20% target share in the playoffs. Given the game environment and options priced around him, we would consider an overweight position.
Matt Breida – Even with injuries derailing the 49ers backfield, Breida has only played on 10% of playoff snaps and handled 9.8% of the team’s rushing attempts.
Chiefs DST – Less likely than the 49ers DL to generate pressure against a solid 49ers OL, the Chiefs DST is still an option particularly in game scripts where we think San Francisco will be forced into more dropbacks.
Demarcus Robinson/Mecole Hardman – Both are strong options given the overall lack of value plays on this slate but Hardman projects for nearly 3x the ownership of Robinson. Hardman doesn’t outscore Robinson at a 3:1 clip, making Robinson the desired play if forced to choose only one.
Darwin Thompson – Barely playable given the uninspiring 9% snap share and one touch over the past two weeks but Thompson remains in our player pool on the outside chance that game script calls for a few more opportunities.
Kyle Juszczyk – Despite playing on 71% of playoff snaps, Juszczyk has yet to see a rushing attempt or target making him an incredibly thin GPP dart throw as a result of simply being on the field.
Blake Bell – Bell is a legitimately good salary saving option having seen a 46% snap share and running a route on 32% of dropbacks over the past two weeks.
Again, roster construction and correlation are the most important factors for GPP success in the Showdown format. But understanding who will be popular helps. A rough guide to who we think will be the most owned:
Higher projected ownership, in order of descending salary:
* Patrick Mahomes
* Tyreek Hill
* Travis Kelce
* George Kittle
Lower projected ownership, in order of descending salary:
* Tevin Coleman
* 49ers DST
* Kendrick Bourne
* Demarcus Robinson