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Last updated: August 26th at 6:20pm ET.


Editor’s Note: Silva’s Shy Away 40 is part of our Draft Kit. But the NFL regular season is almost here. Our In-Season Package will include Silva’s Matchups column, a Friday night podcast/show with Adam Levitan and Silva, a Sunday morning show with Levitan and Silva, Pat Thorman’s weekly rankings, Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Buy-Low Model, and lots more. Act now before the current prices go up; click here to find out more.


These are players I believe are either overvalued or should be scratched off fantasy cheatsheets entirely based on statistical evidence, downward-trending usage expectations, off-field concerns, and/or anticipated performance decline.


Antonio Brown, WR, Raiders. Current ADP: 24.00
Antonio Brown’s ADP has stayed inside the top-ten receivers despite strange foot-infection and unapproved-helmet situations that cost him all but 30 minutes of camp. Brown’s extended absence prevented him from building rapport with Derek Carr in practice, and his repeated discussion of retirement suggests Brown may have lost his passion for playing. Brown’s on-field efficiency suffered last season with seven-year lows in yards per target and yards per route run, while Brown’s career-high 15 touchdowns are due for potentially-severe regression downgrading from Ben Roethlisberger to Carr.

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams
Todd Gurley continues to be drafted among this year’s top-ten fantasy backs across formats despite a slew of indications his workload will be significantly scaled back due to arthritis in his surgically-reconstructed knee. The Rams traded up for NCAA all-time yards-per-carry leader Darrell Henderson in the third round, matched the Lions’ restricted free agent offer sheet to Malcolm Brown, and halved Gurley’s day-to-day practice regimen in hopes of maximizing his efficiency on reduced volume. Over his final seven appearances last season — playoffs included — Gurley’s week-to-week touch counts were 15 – 25 – 14 – 22 – 18 – 5 – 11, quite possibly forewarning of similarly uneven usage this year. Making matters worse, the Rams lost starting LG Rodger Saffold and C John Sullivan, and are breaking in two new interior-line starters in Joseph Noteboom and Brian Allen, who have combined to play 110 career snaps. We’ve stayed well below consensus on Gurley at Establish The Run, ranking him as the RB16.


Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers.  Current ADP: 36.10
Melvin Gordon was an outspoken proponent of Le’Veon Bell’s 2018 full-season holdout and appears empowered by the four-year, $52.5 million deal Bell received in his own contract dispute. ESPN reported on August 20 that the sides “remain millions apart,” and the Chargers’ offer is “well short” of the $13 million-per-year mark that represents the top of the running back market. On August 21, NFL Network reported Gordon won’t be playing in Week 1 “barring a significant change” in contract talks. Gordon can’t hold out beyond midseason – he needs to earn an accrued year to be eligible for 2020 free agency – but he sounds willing to stay away until then, making Gordon tough to take inside the first four rounds of season-long drafts.


Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles. Current ADP: 33.30
Zach Ertz is locked in as my TE3, but his non-positional ADP is still a touch too high coming off a career year. Benefiting from Alshon Jeffery’s early-season absence and Mike Wallace’s year-ending injury in Week 2, Ertz set career highs in targets (by 44) and catches (by 38) as Philly’s clear-cut top receiving option. The Eagles’ pass attempts are likely to fall with several critical players on both offense and defense returning from injury, and a target squeeze is inevitable in a loaded pass-catcher corps that also includes a healthy Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor,J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Darren Sproles, and Dallas Goedert.


Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders.  Current ADP: 36.40
Josh Jacobs’ ADP has stubbornly stayed inside the top-20 running backs despite myriad supporting-cast issues that should be pushing him down. The Raiders lost LG Richie Incognito to a two-game suspension before RG Gabe Jackson suffered a torn MCL that will cost him at least the season’s first month. Antonio Brown’s theatrics removed Oakland’s most-dynamic offensive player from the training-camp picture and caused distractions for a team that probably won’t be very good. If the Raiders do spend much of 2019 playing from behind – their 6.5-game sportsbook Win Total suggests they will – receiving specialist Jalen Richard’s role will be bigger than expected. Jacobs is shaping up as a low-ceiling fantasy pick without a particularly high floor.

A.J. Green, WR Bengals. Current ADP: 51.00
I love A.J. Green the ballplayer, who showed he has plenty left in the tank last season by finishing No. 7 among 96 qualified wide receivers in PFF’s predictive yards-per-route-run metric. But I cringe every time I see him selected inside the top-55 picks. Expected to miss at least the first few games of the regular season, I have Green ranked as roughly the No. 80 overall player following pre-season ankle surgery that revealed more ligament damage than the Bengals’ medical team foresaw. Now on the wrong side of 30 in an offense that was ransacked by injuries throughout August, Green is a confident fade before the seventh round of 12-team drafts.


Phillip Lindsay, RB, Broncos.  Current ADP: 56.20
Although Phillip Lindsay’s 2018 outperformance of Royce Freeman is in zero dispute, neither is the new Broncos’ coaching staff’s intent to scale back Lindsay’s 2019 usage. First-year OC Rich Scangarello – an ex-Falcons assistant – compared Lindsay’s role to Tevin Coleman’s and Freeman’s to Devonta Freeman with the former operating as a speedy change of pace and the latter leading Denver in touches. Lindsay stands just 5-foot-7 and 184 pounds, and Scangarello believes the Broncos will maximize him on fewer touches. (Freeman is 6-foot, 229.) A shoulder injury will keep Theo Riddick out of the first few regular season games, but his early-camp signing provided another signal as to Denver’s committee plans.


Andrew Luck, QB, Colts.
I tried to stay optimistic about Andrew Luck, but he never showed any signs of progress as Week 1 drew near. The pain in Luck’s calf/ankle lingered since all the way back in March, and the Colts may have believed they could exercise early-season caution with 17-game starter Jacoby Brissett available in reserve. Brissett, of course, engineered Indy’s first-team offense for all of camp. UPDATE: Luck announced his retirement on August 24th.


Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears.  Current ADP: 64.90
Tarik Cohen is an immensely valuable real-life player for his punt-return and receiving skills, but his fantasy value is in 2019 doubt. Much of Cohen’s past scoring ability was attributable to ex-Bears lead runner Jordan Howard’s stone hands, and Chicago invested in two plus-receiving backs in Mike Davis and David Montgomery this offseason. Cohen is in danger of losing upwards of 20 targets off last year’s total (91), and his 2018 top-12 PPR finish was more than a little deceptive. Cohen scored a whopping 47% of his PPR points in four individual games. He’s a fine best-ball pick but a poor re-draft investment.

James White, RB, Patriots.
The more drafts I’ve done, the more I realize I want no part of James White. White was my highest-owned running back across fantasy leagues last year and paid major dividends, but his career-high 12 all-purpose touchdowns were wildly unsustainable, and White’s fantasy-start viability evaporated as Sony Michel got healthy down the stretch. Michel is healthy again, Damien Harris has joined the competition, and Rex Burkhead is still siphoning occasional first-team reps. White is a cinch fade at his top-55 fantasy ADP.

Jared Cook, TE, Saints. Current ADP: 81.00
Folks who miss out on this year’s top-seven tight ends — Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, O.J. Howard, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and Vance McDonald — are routinely reaching for Jared Cook, who is downgrading from his team’s No. 1 pass option in Oakland to the Saints’ No. 3 option at best behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. New Orleans’ increasingly run-first commitment limits the team’s passing-game pie after Sean Payton‘s club finished top five in rushing attempts last year. I like Cook as a real-life free agent signing for a team that was quietly painfully short on weapons last year, but he’s going 10-15 slots earlier than he should in season-long drafts. If you miss out on the top-seven tight ends, I’d suggest waiting until the double-digit rounds for your starter rather than reaching for Cook.


Eric Ebron, TE, Colts.
Eric Ebron was always an easy fade at his top-eight tight end ADP based on Ebron’s individual outlook. Back from last year’s hip injury, Jack Doyle out-snapped Ebron 331 to 164 and out-targeted him 33 to 22 in the six games in which both appeared, while Ebron’s 14 TDs are due for massive regression after Ebron went his previous seven football seasons without scoring more than five times in a single year. Combine the additions of Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell with a healthier T.Y. Hilton and the Colts’ intention to use more Mo Alie-Cox, and Ebron is a screaming bust candidate. Andrew Luck‘s retirement locked Ebron into do-not-draft lists.

James Washington, WR, Steelers.
James Washington has been one of fantasy’s biggest ADP risers in late August, but not for sound-process reasons. Washington has lit up backup defenses with college teammate Mason Rudolph in the game but has been an afterthought with the Steelers’ starting group. Washington’s lone first-team preseason snap came in the third game, when Ben Roethlisberger thought JuJu Smith-Schuster looked winded. Ben ushered JuJu out of the game, Washington entered for the one play, and was not targeted. None of Washington’s nine catches this preseason have come from Ben. Ryan Switzer, Diontae Johnson, Eli Rogers, and locked-in No. 2 wideout Donte Moncrief have all seen significantly more action than Washington with the ones. If preseason usage is any kind of tell, Washington will open the year as JuJu’s direct backup at “Z,” and as no better than Pittsburgh’s No. 4 receiver.


Derrius Guice, RB, Redskins.  Current ADP:  88.60
Derrius Guice tore his ACL last August 10, underwent three additional surgeries to address infections in the knee, encountered a pre-camp hamstring strain, and didn’t get cleared for contact for over 12 months after the initial injury. Guice faces early-down competition from Adrian Peterson– fresh off logging the quietest 1,000-yard rushing season in league history – and won’t play in the passing game as long as Chris Thompson is healthy. LT Trent Williams has refused to ever play another down in Washington, and the lowly Redskins project to spend most of 2019 playing from behind. I was a big fan of Guice coming out of LSU, but the environment in which he landed couldn’t be less fantasy friendly.


Lamar Miller, RB, Texans.
The Texans’ in-camp acquisition of Duke Johnson represented the first step toward removing the wind from Lamar Miller’s value-pick sails. The Texans also go from facing last year’s softest schedule to this year’s toughest based on opponent Win Totals, meaning there probably won’t be nearly as many rushing attempts to go around. Johnson is Miller’s superior in the passing game, and the price Houston paid to acquire Johnson equaled the most trade compensation any NFL running back has commanded since the Colts regrettably bought Trent Richardson for a first-round pick. That suggests HC/GM Bill O’Brien views Johnson as much more than the change-of-pace back he was for the Browns. UPDATE: Miller solidified himself on do-not-draft lists when he tore his ACL and MCL in the Texans’ third preseason game.


Corey Davis, WR, Titans.  Current ADP:  93.00
Corey Davis impressively finished top 25 in the NFL in targets on a 2018 Titans team that ranked 31st in pass attempts. This year’s club has no intentions of scaling back its run-game commitment and created a target squeeze by signing Adam Humphries, drafting A.J. Brown, and bringing back Delanie Walker, who suffered a year-ending injury last Week 1. Davis is a player I’m proactively ranking below his ADP because I simply don’t want him on my season-long teams. With that said, I believe Dynasty leaguers should plan on sending late-season buy-low trade offers for Davis, still a tremendous talent at age 24.


Jordan Howard, RB, Eagles.  Current ADP:  105.40
Jordan Howard is going to be a frustratingly touchdown-dependent commodity in Philadelphia, where rookie Miles Sanders ran circles around his competition throughout training camp and Darren Sproles will siphon passing-game work. Howard’s fantasy appeal is limited almost strictly to non-PPR leagues as a touchdown vulture.


Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos.  Current ADP:  127.50
Emmanuel Sanders’ recovery has gone swimmingly by all accounts, but he’s still a player I’m shorting aggressively coming off a December Achilles’ tear at age 32. Also working against Sanders is a mundane Joe Flacco– and eventually Drew Lock-quarterbacked offense on a Vic Fangio-coached Broncos team that wants to run the ball and play good defense. Dynasty leaguers should be doing whatever they can to capitalize on the positivity surrounding Sanders’ recovery and trade Sanders while he’s still holding some semblance of value.


Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens.  Current ADP: 111.00
Mark Andrews is coming off one of the best rookie tight end seasons of all time – he finished top five at the position in yards per route run (2.01) and logged the fifth-most yards by a rookie tight end in the last decade (552) – and by all accounts, Andrews starred in his second training camp. But blocker Nick Boyle is going to lead Ravens tight ends in snaps, and preseason indications are Andrews will share time in the No. 2 role with 2018 first-round pick Hayden Hurst. On the NFL’s run-heaviest team, Andrews will be wildly inconsistent in re-draft leagues. I only want him in best-ball and tight end-premium formats.


LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills.  Current ADP:  127.20
LeSean McCoy is viewed in some circles as a late-round value pick positioned to lead the Bills in carries. I personally prefer my late-round picks to offer upside, and McCoy simply doesn’t. Not only is Buffalo’s run game headed for a three-pronged RBBC that also includes Frank Gore and rookie Devin Singletary, but McCoy’s 2018 performance was atrocious. He finished 55th out of 56 qualified running backs in yards after contact per carry (2.01), averaged a career low 3.2 yards per attempt, and ranked 45th among 47 qualifiers in rushing Success Rate. Now 31 years old, McCoy is past the point of being on his last legs.


Kareem Hunt, RB, Browns.  Current ADP:  128.50
Kareem Hunt is draft-able in best-ball leagues and season-long formats where owners are allotted 8-10 bench spots and Hunt can be stashed without hindering early-season waiver-wire runs. But Hunt should be scratched off cheatsheets entirely in leagues with five or six bench openings. Hunt isn’t even eligible to play until Week 10 due to an eight-game suspension and Cleveland’s Week 7 bye, and Browns owner Dee Haslam suggested early in training camp that Hunt is no lock to gain reinstatement. If you want to invest smartly in the Browns’ backfield, draft Nick Chubb early and Dontrell Hilliard late.


Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers.  Current ADP:  114.70
Ronald Jones followed up one of the worst second-round rookie running back seasons in NFL history (77 yards on 30 touches) by being unable to unseat pedestrian Peyton Barber as the Bucs’ lead back in this year’s camp. Bucs coaches openly admitted Jones’ confidence has wavered. Overdrafted in the first place as last year’s No. 38 overall pick, Jones is a straight-line track athlete with limited passing-game chops after catching only seven passes during his entire high school career and just 32 in 40 games at USC. He also experienced knee swelling late in camp. I expect the Bucs to add a running back at final cuts, when bubble players like Kenneth Dixon, Elijah McGuire, T.J. Yeldon, and Carlos Hyde could become available.


Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings.  Current ADP:  135.50
Kyle Rudolph has somehow maintained a top-15 tight end ADP despite coming off a miserable 2018 campaign where he cleared 60 yards in 3-of-16 games on a much pass-heavier team than the Vikings will trot out this year. In blocking specialist David Morgan, do-it-all sophomore Tyler Conklin, and second-round rookie Irv Smith, Minnesota has ample depth to limit Rudolph’s 2019 snaps. And Rudolph’s snaps deserve to be limited. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 62 run blocker and No. 63 pass blocker among 70 qualified tight ends, and Rudolph came in 23rd of 30 in yards per route run at the position.


Golden Tate, WR, Giants.  Current ADP: 144.20
Golden Tate had a shot to contend for the Giants’ team target lead before he was hit with a four-game suspension for ingesting a banned substance. Tate is now ineligible until Week 5, at which point the Giants draw two of the league’s best secondaries back to back in Minnesota and New England, against each of whom Tate will be a poor fantasy play. Perhaps Tate will be worth grabbing off the waiver wire around midseason. But he isn’t worth drafting in season-long leagues, even those with deep benches.


Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  Current ADP:  107.80
Drew Brees no longer provides a week-to-week difference, finishing as the QB14 and QB9 in points per game over the last two seasons on a Saints team that has increasingly committed to the run and built a stout defense. Now 40 ½ years old, Brees’ 2018 second-half slide is further cause for concern, slumping to a 234.5-yard average and 7:5 TD-to-INT ratio over last year’s final six games, including the playoffs.


Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles.  Current ADP:  150.60
Dallas Goedert was one of my favorite NFL rookies to watch last year – his violent blocking, sure hands, and run-after-catch skills consistently popped on tape – but Goedert won’t be delivering starter-quality fantasy stats barring a Zach Ertz injury. Goedert missed nearly the entire preseason with a calf injury, while the enviable depth of Philadelphia’s offense is likely to render each member of its pass-catcher corps up and down week to week. Those effects will be especially felt by Goedert, who drew just 2.8 targets per game last year despite the fact that the Eagles ran the most two-tight end sets in the league.


Bears Defense/Special Teams.  Current ADP:  10th/11th
I have the Bears’ Defense ranked in a tier of its own, but that doesn’t mean I’m coming anywhere near drafting it. Chicago’s D/ST has a 10th-/11th-round ADP even in high-stakes leagues, the same range where Justice Hill, Darwin Thompson, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, Lamar Jackson, and Donte Moncrief go. Vic Fangio to Chuck Pagano is an obvious coordinator downgrade, while last year’s team benefited from a cupcake schedule that included Brock Osweiler, Nathan Peterman, Eli Manning, Nick Mullens, Nick Foles, Sam Darnold, Sam Bradford, and Jared Goff in a weather-affected game without Cooper Kupp. This year, Chicago faces Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Matthew Stafford twice, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and Goff with a healthy Kupp.


Jerick McKinnon, RB, 49ers.  Current ADP: 183.20
Jerick McKinnon is an easy ignore even in deep leagues after suffering a setback in his ACL recovery that may send him to injured reserve, which would cost McKinnon at least the first eight weeks. For some reason, McKinnon’s ADP remains within the top-60 running back picks. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida are the only draft-worthy backs in San Francisco.


Ito Smith, RB, Falcons.  Current ADP:  170.10
Ito Smith was surprisingly-aggressively hyped in some fantasy circles entering training camp despite a largely unpromising rookie campaign where he managed 3.5 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per catch and ranked a below-par 36th among 56 qualified running backs in yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.73). Undersized (5’9/200) and a nondescript athlete, Smith is now in danger of losing the Falcons’ No. 2 job to Brian Hill or rookie Qadree Ollison. Smith is also a poor handcuff for Devonta Freeman; Atlanta would likely resort to a committee if Freeman went down. Running backs with lower ADPs than Smith I’d rather draft include Chase Edmonds, Dontrell Hilliard, Jalen Richard, and Ty Montgomery.


N’Keal Harry, WR, Patriots.  Current ADP:  142.80
N’Keal Harry struggled to find his footing throughout minicamp/OTAs and the early part of training camp. He redeemed himself somewhat on two impressive back-shoulder catches in New England’s preseason opener, only to suffer turf toe in the game. Missing practice with Tom Brady is concerning because it prevented TB12 from building chemistry with the Patriots’ rookie receiver, especially since Harry relies on timing and trust in contested situations rather than separation as the foundation of his game. Josh Gordon’s surprisingly-early reinstatement put the final fork in Harry as a re-draft pick.


Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings.  Current ADP:  138.30
Kirk Cousins is headed for game-manager treatment after his pass attempts per game dipped from 40.3 to 27.3 following pass-happy OC John DeFilippo’s 2018 removal. The Vikings are all in on a run-first approach, drafting a center (Garrett Bradbury) in the first round, a tight end for more 12 personnel in the second (Irv Smith), and 221-pound grinder back Alexander Mattison in the third. Defensive-minded coach Mike Zimmer tabbed run-game maven Gary Kubiak to oversee the revised attack. Cousins’ plus weaponry gives him a decent floor, but he is too short on upside to be ranked near the QB1 vicinity.


Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions.  Current ADP:  173.20
Matthew Stafford finds himself in a similar situation to Kirk Cousins with a quality supporting cast but a coaching staff intent on limiting pass volume. Stafford’s 555 attempts in Matt Patricia’s first year as coach were his fewest since Stafford’s injury-ruined 2010 campaign, and the Lions hired historically run-committed Darrell Bevell to replace longtime Stafford pal Jim Bob Cooter as playcaller. Detroit’s additions of DT Mike Daniels, CB Justin Coleman, and DE Trey Flowers increase the likelihood Patricia and Bevell will be able to execute their run-first philosophy, damaging Stafford’s box-score outlook.


Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens.  Current ADP:  183.50
Marquise Brown’s recovery from Lisfranc surgery went slower than expected, and his spotty practice attendance throughout training camp hinted at setbacks in August. Brown was one of my favorite wide receivers to watch on college tape before the draft, but he can’t be counted on as a re-draft-league asset on the NFL’s run-heaviest team after building zero rapport with Lamar Jackson this August.

D.K. Metcalf and David Moore, WRs, Seahawks.
I grouped these guys together because they should be somewhat of a gimme. D.K. Metcalf — wracked by injuries throughout his Ole Miss career, where he appeared in only 21 games in three seasons — underwent arthroscopic knee surgery toward the end of camp and is questionable for Week 1. Metcalf remains likelier to be a worthwhile in-season waiver-wire pickup than David Moore, whose shoulder injury is expected to keep him out of the first several games. Tyler Lockett and Jaron Brown are on pace to open the year as Seattle’s Nos. 1 and 2 wideouts. Rookies Gary Jennings, John Ursua, and Jazz Ferguson will wage a late-preseason battle for No. 3.

Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell, WRs, Colts.
Same concept as the above Seahawks receivers, albeit with different reasoning. The downgrade from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett will probably cost the Colts 7-9 points per game, and the passing attack will struggle to support more than one to two viable fantasy pass catchers. Big but lacking separation skills, Devin Funchess needs an accurate, tight-window thrower to succeed. Parris Campbell nursed a hamstring strain for most of training camp and may struggle to earn a major role throughout his rookie year. Sadly, I also plunged Campbell down our Dynasty rookie rankings.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Patriots.  Current ADP:  216.20
Demaryius Thomas is a big-name player whose Achilles’ recovery went much faster than expected, but he is also nearing age 32 coming off one of the most-severe injuries any athlete can suffer. Thomas received just $300,000 guaranteed on his one-year, $3 million deal, suggesting his roster spot isn’t safe. Neither is Thomas’ target share in a Patriots offense where Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, and up to four running backs need to be fed. Thomas isn’t even worthy of a last-round fantasy pick.


Nyheim Hines, RB, Colts.  Current ADP:  153.90
Nyheim Hines was an at-times useful PPR commodity as a rookie, finishing No. 8 among running backs in catches (63). But Hines’ workload faded as the season progressed, and he averaged just 4.8 touches over Indianapolis’ last six games, including playoffs. Lead runner Marlon Mack’s routes run per game rose from 13.5 to 23.3 in the final month, while 2019 preseason usage suggests the Colts want to utilize Mack as a true every-down back. Hines is a PPR Dynasty stash who doesn’t belong on season-long rosters, especially after Andrew Luck‘s retirement crushed the upside of all Colts skill players.

Carlos Hyde, RB, Chiefs.
I’m embarrassed to admit how high on Carlos Hyde I was entering training camp — I had him as a top-40 fantasy back — but I try to keep my process Bayesian in spirit and aggressively adjust my rankings and tiers to account for new information. As Chiefs camp progressed, it became increasingly clear Hyde was being outplayed by Darwin Thompson and Darrel Williams. I want to take as many shots as I possibly can on the NFL’s most-explosive offense, but at this point that doesn’t include Hyde.

Andy Isabella, WR, Cardinals.

I expected second-round pick Andy Isabella to win a top-four receiver spot entering Cardinals camp, but it hasn’t happened. He lost a big chunk of August due to a knee injury and had fallen far behind Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, sixth-rounder KeeSean Johnson, someone named Trent Sherfield, and even Damiere Byrd before the Cards signed longtime Kliff Kingsbury pal Michael Crabtree. Isabella could potentially make headway during the regular season and emerge as a waiver-wire pickup, but he isn’t worth drafting before Week 1.

Jacoby Brissett, QB, Colts.
There was some buzz around the fantasy community regarding Jacoby Brissett when Andrew Luck retired, but expectations should be low. Fantasy’s QB22 when Luck missed the entire 2017 season, Brissett has a tendency to make his offensive line look worse by holding onto the ball too long in the pocket. He took a league-high 52 sacks in those 15 starts, managing 13 touchdown passes for an offense that finished 30th in points. The situation around Brissett is much better now, but he will be treated as a caretaking game manager by playcaller Frank Reich. It doesn’t help that Indianapolis opens with two straight difficult matchups, at the Chargers and at the Titans in Weeks 1-2. And don’t sleep on Chad Kelly, who will serve a two-game suspension to begin the year but arguably offers a higher ceiling than Brissett and could easily make 2019 starts if Brissett fails to show improvement on his 2017.