Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 3

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Cliché time: It’s still early, folks.

We take our victory laps while we can — some more than others — with the knowledge they are fleeting. And unless you drafted Rams receivers, it’s also no time to panic. Much of what we think we know now will change.

From a pace perspective, we’ve received plenty of new data on how offenses are operating — but not necessarily how they will play all year. Last season, the Bucs started fast and finished slow, while the Eagles began the season slow and ended fast. Not that it helped. The Panthers also started slowly and, well, they ended even slower.

So far this year, the six fastest-paced offenses during neutral situations are the Falcons (expected), the Colts and Cowboys (mortal locks), and the Seahawks, Bears, and Steelers (surprise!).

The slowest teams are the Jets (of course), Panthers (RIP), Bengals, Bucs, and Cardinals (sigh) — followed by whatever the hell the Giants have going on right now.

Not all of those teams will finish in the top and bottom six — and several will vacate those groupings quickly. Those that do stick at the tails of the range are our best leading indicators of which games will be flush with snaps and which will not.

Considering we’re seeing roughly seven fewer offensive plays per game through two weeks this year versus last year, every pace-pushing factor counts. As always, we’ll touch on as many as we can below — so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context, and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) is based on neutral game script and is provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

A pair of presumptive playoff teams attempt to bounce back from brutal Week 2 losses in a matchup that will push the pace. The Ravens choked away several Week 2 leads — including a 10-point, fourth-quarter advantage — at home against the Raiders. Baltimore’s offensive line is a concern and the non-Lamar Jackson rushing attack is, at best, inconsistent. The Ravens have taken to the air, ranking top 10 in situation-neutral pass rate through two weeks (60%). They are not operating at the speed with which we hoped when OC Todd Monken was hired, but without their usual barrage of handoffs, the pace of Ravens games is not plodding. Baltimore’s matchups rank seventh in combined snaps and eighth in total points. It’s been helpful that they feature a pass defense that ranks 26th in EPA per play allowed and is thrown on at the league’s highest clip during neutral situations (71%).

The Cowboys’ offense is moving at its typically hasty tempo, ranking fourth in Neutral Pace after two games. Their contests produce the third-most combined plays and third-most total points. These features are nothing new, and almost certainly will continue. What’s out of the ordinary is Dallas ranking 27th in dropback EPA and 23rd in yards per play. They also sit 25th in explosive play rate after finishing sixth last season. Fortunately, they face a Ravens defense allowing the third-highest rate of 15+ yard plays. It’s only been two games for the Cowboys, and one came against a standout defense in Cleveland. There are currently more disappointing offenses in the NFL than there are years since Jerry Jones sniffed a Super Bowl. We must stay on our pace-based course, and a matchup between these offenses points clearly toward elevated play volume.