Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 5

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

While it felt like Week 4 got off to a flying start in Sunday’s early window, potentially setting up as our highest-octane week so far, we crashed back into the mire of a 2024 season featuring as much scoring as a church group picnic.

Through four weeks, we have seen nearly 100 fewer points than at this time last year (-95). We are 347 snaps shy of where we were after Week 4 — during what, at the time, was considered a down year for offense.

One factor is teams are moving more slowly. Another is they are passing less often — and those two details are inarguably related. As we know, more runs equal more clock grinding. Last season’s 59.2% situation-neutral pass rate dwarfs this year’s 56.3% mark, and it shows no sign of reversing.

The overall Neutral Pace in 2023 (36.8 seconds) was more than a full second quicker than offenses are operating to this point (37.9). It may not sound like much, but those seconds add up — and it’s already shown up in average play volume.

The result, for us, is fewer glaringly obvious up-pace matchups — particularly during weeks when four teams have byes, and Rog exports an extra main-slate game to Europe at an ungodly hour. Yet, we don’t make excuses here — we just hunt for that sweet, sweet play volume, so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | So You’re Saying There’s a Chance | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

While the Colts have been playing fast and most of their matchups have been fruitful for fantasy, it feels like we should be getting more. Considering the caliber of defenses Indianapolis has hosted the last two weeks, we shouldn’t get greedy. The Colts are third in Neutral Pace (34.4 seconds), which is even quicker than last season (35.2). Their contests rank second in average combined plays, and for the first time this season, the Indianapolis run defense didn’t wind up flat on its back like Jim Irsay on an ether binge. The Colts held the ball long enough to produce a season-high 64 offensive snaps. Baby steps. Whether Joe Flacco starts for Anthony Richardson or not, the absence of Jonathan Taylor will push Indianapolis toward the air — further speeding up this game.

A Jaguars defense that ranks 10th in rush EPA and 30th in dropback EPA will also entice a more pass-leaning approach by the Colts. Jacksonville faces the fifth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%). Less predictable is what version of the Jaguars’ offense will show up. Winless on the year, they have at least been competitive in three of four games, if not consistent in any way. Jacksonville, at times, plays with tempo — with a tendency to go no-huddle after chunk gains — while deploying a middling Neutral Pace. Their games are also mid-pack in combined play volume, and the Jaguars are 15th in neutral pass rate (58%). They can be coaxed into an up-tempo game script and are facing one of the league’s true pace pushers. After a string of tough passing matchups, Trevor Lawrence draws a coverage-deficient opponent that made Caleb Williams and Justin Fields fantasy-viable in back-to-back weeks. The wheels might be falling off in Jacksonville, but a quick-paced Colts matchup should hold the offense together one more week.