Welcome to the Week 15 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which main-slate matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.
The first official week of the fantasy playoffs arrives as one-third of the NFL limps forward, led by backup quarterbacks. As injury attrition and rough weather pick up, offenses are slowing down. There has been an overall decline in pace, as well as league-wide no-huddle rate — which is only 6.5% over the past two weeks after sitting at 9.5% after Thanksgiving.
We do have a couple of gems on the Week 15 main slate, albeit without much else to get the tempo juices flowing. The three-game Saturday slate also has its pace-based ups and downs, so let’s dive in.
As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the FTN Pace Tool. The average play-clock seconds remaining are also based on neutral game script and are provided by our machine, Mike Leone.
Up In Pace
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
Assuming we don’t get Buffaloed by winter weather, this is the cleanest pace-based matchup on the main slate. The Cowboys continued playing fast while handling the Eagles on Sunday night, ranking fourth in situation-neutral pace for the week. They are third quickest over the last month and no one averages more play-clock seconds remaining this year. Dallas has a top-six pass rate while games are close, both on the season and during the last month — and the defense is facing the fourth-highest opponent pass rate over the past four weeks. Considering this matchup sports a 2.5-point spread, neither side should be tempted to hit the brakes and burn the clock. Cowboys games are producing the ninth-most combined snaps over the past four weeks, as well as a league-high 55 total points.
Bills contests have been similarly voluminous, averaging the league’s most combined plays (139) and 10th-most total points during the past month. Their throwing has moderated a bit, but Buffalo has still turned in a 61% situation-neutral pass rate since OC Joe Brady took over. That would rank eighth highest on the full season. The Bills’ scoring is up slightly since the switch to Brady — 28.7 points per game versus 26.2 — and they’ve moved somewhat faster on offense, edging from 13th in situation-neutral pace to ninth. Josh Allen is also running more under Brady and the Cowboys allow the fifth-most quarterback rushing yards per game. We can do worse than anchoring our Week 15 main-slate focus to a fast-paced meeting between a pair of offenses both ranking top five in points per snap and top six in yards per play.
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams
When we last saw the Commanders, they were getting curb-stomped by the Dolphins while allowing 45 points for the second straight week. They haven’t scored 20 points in over a month, and despite their reputation as a fast-paced offense, in reality, they typically play slowly. Washington’s matchups have been grouped with other fantasy-friendly environments mainly due to constant passing and the gaping chasm they call a secondary. No team throws at a higher rate than the Commanders while games are close (68%) — and no defense faces a higher opponent pass rate (63%). Washington’s defense ranks third worst in explosive play rate (13%) and has surrendered a league-worst dropback EPA — but is mid-pack when teams hand off against them. As a result, Commanders games are top 10 in combined snaps and yield the third-most total points (50.5) — a mark that’s risen to 55 points per game over the past month as the defense bottoms out.
The Rams are coming off a wild game in Baltimore that featured over 400 yards of offense on both sides, 68 total points, and 144 combined plays (only six of which came in overtime). Los Angeles came out running, but Matthew Stafford still finished with 41 pass attempts against a solid Ravens defense. He will not face a solid defense this Sunday. The Rams are throwing at the sixth-highest situation-neutral clip over the last month (61%), while scoring the fifth-most points per game. Not that Washington needs an invitation, but Los Angeles faces the seventh-highest opponent pass rate on the season and the third highest during the last four weeks. The Rams have played a tick faster over that time, ranking 10th in pace. Their games produce the 11th-most combined plays and 11th-most total points — with both marks rising during the past four weeks. A pass-happy indoor game with two healthy quarterbacks is exactly what we’re looking for at this stage of the season.
Some Up, Some Down
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
These next two matchups don’t belong above in Pace Up or below with the Slogs, but both have pace-based items worth noting on a sparse main slate. The Bears played only a bit faster last week, but they were noticeably more throw-happy — registering their highest pass rate over expected (+4.2%) of an otherwise ground-committed season (-5.0%; 30th). With the Browns’ defense coming off a pair of pedestrian — for them — pass-defense performances, there’s at least some hope Justin Fields and Co. won’t be completely smothered. If nothing else, Fields has doubled his designed runs per game since Week 11, and Cleveland allowed the only mobile quarterbacks they’ve faced (Lamar Jackson twice and Russell Wilson) to gather 102 yards and three scores on the ground.
The Browns are the more bullish side from a tempo perspective, as they’re third in situation-neutral pace under Joe Flacco. Their games are up to second in average combined snaps during the last month (135.3), as Cleveland has finally allowed a reasonable number of snaps to their opponents. The Browns have also turned in pass rates of 69% in each of Flacco’s two games — which would rank first on the full season and dwarf Cleveland’s pre-Week 13 mark (54%; 26th). With the visiting Bears significantly stronger in run defense than pass coverage and facing the seventh-highest opponent pass rate, we know how the Browns will approach this matchup. The hope is their decimated offensive line holds up in front of statuesque pocket-sloth Flacco, as his two games yielded a combined play rate of 139.5 — which is a meaty 12.7 more plays than the NFL average.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
Order has been restored to the New York organization under Jersey kid Tommy DeVito, because of course it has. While we try not to get carried away with him — did you know Tommy Cutlets is Italian? — the Giants have won three straight while deploying the kind of ‘game-plan offense’ Brian Daboll prefers. They’ve run against weak run defenses and vice-versa. They’ve also operated quickly, ranking sixth in situation-neutral pace since DeVito took over — which coincided with the return of stud LT Andrew Thomas and needed pass-blocking stability. They will likely lean toward the run against the Saints — nearly all of New Orleans’ opponents do — but this Giants offense is packing more than meets the eye. They rank fifth in explosive play rate over the last month (12%).
The Saints’ offense usually packs less than you’d think with Derek Carr out there. They operated at a moderate tempo last week while the visiting Panthers repeatedly wet themselves, but New Orleans is third on the season in situation-neutral pace and second in average play-clock seconds. Their games yield the third-most combined snaps, yet rank only 21st in total points (42). The Saints have allowed the 11th-fewest points per snap, but the defense has sagged when facing an offense with a pulse. As mind-bending as it may be, DeVito has a better shot of pushing New Orleans than fellow rookie Bryce Young did on Sunday. His arm has been serviceable (16th in PFF passing grade over the last three weeks), he’s kept drives alive with his legs, and the Saints allow the second-most quarterback rushing yards. There are some fantasy warts here, but any indoor game in December is worth a second look.
Slow-Paced Slogs
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
The first of two meetings in three weeks between AFC South rivals looks far more bleak for fantasy than it did a couple of weeks ago. Whether or not the Texans have the services of C.J. Stroud, they will be without pace-pushing wideouts Tank Dell and Nico Collins. The Texans rank below only the Dolphins and 49ers in offensive explosive play rate, and their two starting wideouts account for over 53% of Houston’s chunk gains. The Texans’ situation-neutral pace has dipped to 21st during the past three weeks after sitting fifth fastest before then. Their games are producing the eighth-fewest combined plays and only 39.3 total points over the last month, after ranking sixth in snaps and yielding 45.4 points. There’s a solid chance that Stroud is cleared in time — December concussions in the NFL aren’t as severe as the September versions — but with decimated weaponry and a slowing offense, the pace-based ceiling here is significantly lowered.
Before Monday night’s wild fourth quarter in Miami, we would have labeled the ceiling in every Titans game as lowered by their slow offense. Tennessee’s games averaged the league’s fewest combined plays, by a mile (120.3), and they produced the seventh-fewest total points (39). The Titans still moved ponderously on Monday night, registering the sixth-slowest situation-neutral pace of the week. They rank 29th on the season and average the third-fewest play-clock seconds, as well. Tennessee’s run rate while games remain close is rising. It was 42% a month ago and it’s 51% since (fourth highest). Opponents have also been pounding the rock against them recently, with the sixth-highest rate over the past four weeks (46%). Considering the Texans were already running too much on first down — despite an ineffectual ground game and a healthy Stroud, Dell, and Collins — it’s no stretch to say they will continue the assault on Tennessee’s fourth-worst-graded run stopping.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
We saw a similar version of this Panthers matchup last week when they faced the Saints. While that game took place indoors, with both offenses unleashing a fanatically ground-committed plan, it wasn’t useful for fantasy. This week, Art Smith almost certainly will revert to a run-dominant approach after he surprisingly unleashed a 68% situation-neutral pass rate against the Bucs in Week 14. Atlanta had been incredibly run-heavy in their previous two post-bye games — both wins — and pivoting to Desmond Ridder’s arm ended in predictable despair. No team has a lower pass rate over expectation than the Falcons on the full season, and it’s not remotely close. While the lack of passing hinders receiver production, play volume in Atlanta’s games has been resilient due to an elevated tempo. The Falcons rank seventh in situation-neutral pace since Week 9 and eighth in average play-clock seconds on the season. Scoring, on the other hand, has been persistently absent from Atlanta’s contests — which rank 26th in total points (40).
The first time the Panthers faced the Falcons in Week 1, Carolina scored 10 points. Those were the good old days. 14 weeks and incalculable dramas later, the Panthers are simming-to-end like a petulant 10-year-old child — or a petulant 66-year-old billionaire. Carolina has a 46% situation-neutral pass rate since David Tepper canned Frank Reich — which would rank last by a distance on the full season. They threw at a 60% clip before then (10th). The Panthers’ no-huddle rate was 14% under Reich (seventh) and it’s 2% since, despite constantly trailing. Not that it would matter much if they tried, anyway. The Panthers are 31st in points and 32nd in yards on a per-play basis. Their explosive play rate is buried in last place (6.5%), and their first-pick passer might have only one friend left on the Internet. The best thing we can say is their pass defense is average, which also hurts the fantasy appeal of Panthers games, as opponents hand off against their league-worst run stopping at a top-10 rate. That rate will rise against the Falcons on Sunday, Atlanta’s pass catchers will need to thrive on limited volume, and the clock will grind unrelentingly.
Pace Notes
The Saturday slate shapes up as a slow burn, with the afternoon matchup appearing most pivotal from a play-volume perspective — and the night game providing the highest ceiling. The opener will almost certainly be slow, even if the Bengals’ defense offers the Vikings explosive play opportunities. All three matchups have the potential for significant pace pitfalls, depending on which offense can set the tone.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
The deterioration of Vikings games, from featuring fantasy fireworks to delivering barren hellscapes, has been tough to watch. Last season, they provided the most combined plays and third-most total points (50.1). Over the past month, Minnesota matchups yield the fifth-fewest combined snaps and a pitiful 22 total points (31st). When Kirk Cousins was lost for the year on the heels of Justin Jefferson’s hamstring injury, they were passing at the fourth-highest situation-neutral rate, averaging the ninth-most play-clock seconds (10.9), and Vikings contests at least ranked mid-pack in plays and points. Now Minnesota has the ninth-highest run rate during the past four weeks, hasn’t reached a 10.9-second play-clock average once, and is on to their third quarterback. Brian Flores’ defense — which allows the fourth-fewest points per play — has opposing coordinators waking up drenched in sweat and has completed the neutering of Vikings games’ fantasy viability from the other side of the ball. Good times.
We recently witnessed Brian Flores’ defense cause complete capitulation in the Bears’ Week 12 play-calling, and on Sunday the Raiders mustered three fewer points than turnovers. They had three turnovers. Jake Browning has done a commendable job filling in for Joe Burrow, but it’s doubtful that Cincinnati’s coaches choose to lean on him more against the Vikings’ defense than they just did against the Colts. He threw only 24 passes on Sunday, as the Bengals turned in their lowest situation-neutral pass rate of the season by a mile (54%). They also operated at the 10th-slowest pace of Week 14. Despite facing the play-volume-catalyst Colts, the game produced the second-fewest total plays of the week (117). Bengals contests have been low-volume affairs all year, ranking 30th in combined snaps, as Cincinnati has averaged the ninth-fewest play-clock seconds on the season. It’s nearly impossible to expect a meaningful shift on a short week with this quarterback — particularly against this opposing defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts will attempt to do with the Steelers what they could not with the Bengals — successfully play fast enough to propel a boat-anchor opposing offense. Pittsburgh is operating even more slowly than Cincinnati of late, yet their severe run-leaning tendencies are not an anomaly. Since Kenny Pickett went down, the Steelers deployed situation-neutral pass rates of 35% (last of Week 13) and 47% (fifth lowest of Week 14). They rank 31st over the last month, during which time they’re operating at the third-slowest pace. Pittsburgh’s contests produce the eighth-fewest combined snaps and third-fewest total plays — both of which have further plummeted during the past four weeks. The Steelers are bottom six in both points for and against on a per-play basis, they gain the eighth-fewest yards per snap, and their games rank 28th in total explosive play rate during the past month. In other Titanic deck-chair news, there are currently unironic calls for Mason Rudolph to play over Mitch Trubisky. Things got dark quickly in Pittsburgh.
Sadly, Indianapolis has not been as consistent of a pace and play-volume catalyst as they were earlier this season. Since their Week 11 bye, Colts games have produced a middling 126 combined overtime-adjusted plays. They had been leading the league. Indianapolis just turned in the 14th-fastest situation-neutral pace of Week 14 and, despite leading all offenses in pass rate on Sunday (76%), their game with the Bengals resulted in a disappointing 117 combined snaps. While the Colts aren’t absolutely flying every game anymore — their average play-clock seconds have been spotty since Week 9 — they remain one of the best pace-based bets we can make. In addition to a recent affinity for chucking it around that has them ranked No. 1 in situation-neutral pass rate over the last month, Indianapolis’ contests are seventh in total points during those four weeks (51.3). The worry here is their flimsy defense is facing the second-highest opponent run rate, and the Steelers are sure to attack them on the ground — slowly. This may be the Colts’ toughest pace-pushing challenge yet.
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions
If the fantasy viability of Saturday’s afternoon contest hinges on Indy’s ability to reanimate the corpse of Pittsburgh’s offense, the night game depends on the Lions’ willingness to lower their T levels. It’ll be a close race. Another 55% run rate for Detroit will not elevate the matchup’s tempo against a Broncos team playing low-volume contests, as Denver will not willingly go pass-heavy in a neutral game script. They are 30th on the season in run rate while games are close, and their pace ranks second slowest. Denver’s defense has the third-best EPA per play since Week 5, while ranking fourth in dropback EPA — so the Lions will be enticed to go run-heavy. Broncos games are now averaging the fifth-fewest combined plays — and over the last month, the total points in their contests have fallen from fourth (49.3) to 24th (38). While there are some green shoots — Broncos games sit fifth in total explosive play rate and the offense has operated at the 13th-fastest pace over the last three weeks — the 5-point-favorite home team needs to do the pushing here.
The Lions may want to wander into the woods and eat some peyote to wipe away that trip to Chicago — as long as they remember to avoid incessantly running the ball while trailing. It surely helps to be back in their dome, as the last two outdoor games in Chicago and Baltimore had Detroit’s offense resembling something Dan Campbell scraped off his shoe. One element we can always count on to foster fantasy-friendly environments is Detroit’s defense, which ranks 26th in dropback EPA, fifth in rush EPA, and faces the 11th-highest opponent pass rate while games remain close. The Lions surrender the third-most points per snap on the season, and their games yield the fifth-most total points (50.3). Detroit ranks a respectable 13th in pace over the last four weeks and 14th in play-clock seconds on the season — while their games feature the seventh-highest full-game explosive play rate. While it’s far from a sure bet, the Lions clearly have the firepower on offense and ineptitude on defense to ignite the Broncos and the fantasy ceiling of the slate’s final matchup.
