Select Page

NFL Rest of Season Sale!

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel!

Our YouTube channel has exclusive content not available on our podcast or website! Make sure you subscribe today for access to draft streams, strategy videos, rankings, and much more!

Subscribe to ETR YouTube!

 

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 11. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

 

Week 11 Bye Week: Falcons, Patriots, Colts & Saints

 

 

DL Rankings – Week 11

  1. 49ers
  2. Cowboys
  3. Eagles
  4. Steelers
  5. Browns
  6. Jets
  7. Titans
  8. Chiefs
  9. Giants
  10. Packers
  11. Bills
  12. Rams
  13. Chargers
  14. Vikings
  15. Jaguars
  16. Ravens
  17. Texans
  18. Raiders
  19. Lions
  20. Colts
  21. Bengals
  22. Panthers
  23. Commanders
  24. Patriots
  25. Seahawks
  26. Dolphins
  27. Bucs
  28. Bears
  29. Saints
  30. Falcons
  31. Broncos
  32. Cardinals

 

OL Rankings – Week 11

  1. Eagles – RG Cam Jurgens is questionable to play this week for the first time since Week 4.
  2. Lions
  3. Cowboys
  4. Ravens
  5. Chiefs
  6. Bucs
  7. Texans
  8. 49ers
  9. Colts
  10. Vikings
  11. Chargers – C Corey Linsley remains out with a “non-emergent heart-related issue” that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 3.
  12. Browns
  13. Jaguars
  14. Bengals
  15. Bills
  16. Falcons
  17. Seahawks – RT Abraham Lucas was designated to return from a knee injury that has kept him out since Week 1.
  18. Jets
  19. Saints
  20. Patriots
  21. Cardinals
  22. Dolphins
  23. Packers
  24. Rams
  25. Broncos
  26. Giants
  27. Steelers
  28. Raiders
  29. Bears – RG Nate Davis has been out since Week 6 with a high-ankle sprain with a likely return this week.
  30. Panthers
  31. Titans
  32. Commanders

 


Biggest Week 11 DL > OL Mismatches

  1. Cowboys DL (2nd) > Panthers OL (30th)
  2. Browns DL (5th) > Steelers OL (27th)
  3. Giants DL (9th) > Commanders OL (32nd)
  4. Jaguars DL (15th) > Titans OL (31st)
  5. Vikings DL (14th) > Broncos OL (25th)

 

Biggest Week 11 OL > DL Mismatches

  1. Lions OL (2nd) > Bears DL (28th)
  2. Texans OL (7th) > Cardinals DL (32nd)

 

DL > OL

 

1.   Cowboys DL > Panthers OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Micah Parsons vs. LT Ikem Ekwonu, DT Osa Odighizuwa vs. C Bradley Bozeman

Notes: The Cowboys’ DL ranks first in pass-rush win rate, 12th in QB knockdown percentage, and fourth in sacks per pass attempt. Edge rusher Micah Parsons ranks second in total pressures with 53. The Panthers’ OL ranks 19th in pass-block win rate, 22nd in pressure percentage given up, and 25th in sacks per pass attempt given up.

Carolina’s offense has been a disappointment this season thanks in large part to a lack of weapons in the pass game followed by shaky pass protection stemming from the left side of the line with LT Ikem Ekwonu’s stagnant development as a pass protector and several different replaceable starting left guards next to him. Rookie Chandler Zavala is slated to start in this game with last week’s starter Calvin Throckmorton being cut earlier this week. Add in rookie QB Bryce Young’s inconsistent footwork and slow setup in the pocket, and you have a perfect recipe for disaster this week against a ferocious Cowboys front with mismatches essentially across the line.

 

2. Browns DL > Steelers OL

We create the highest-quality NFL content

Our team includes renowned fantasy analysts Evan Silva and Adam Levitan, high-stakes professional DFS players, and specialists who cover niche areas that we believe are important to understand.

We don’t sell lineups or claim to have all of the answers. We do analyze what’s happening in a way that’s digestible and actionable, with a goal of preparing you to make the best decisions possible during the 2022 NFL season.

Read on to learn what’s inside our In-Season NFL subscription.

Full Details! » Already a subscriber? Log In