Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 14 | Establish The Run

If you have a question about a player or a strategy, you are welcome to reach out to me in our Discord, via Twitter @RyanReynoldsNFL, or via email [email protected] if that’s your preference. Every week, I will be doing my last round of checks on Saturday evening.

Week 14 Bye: Colts, Dolphins, Eagles, Patriots

Quarterbacks

Taysom Hill – 20% FAAB Budget

Taylor Heinicke – 8%

Justin Fields – 5% (If he plays)

Teddy Bridgewater – 3%

Cam Newton – 1%

Week 15 Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa vs Jets

Jimmy Garoppolo vs Falcons

Jared Goff vs Cardinals

Running Backs

Note: The bid suggestions in this section are geared more towards competitive home leagues. If any of these options are available in competitive leagues or tournaments with deep rosters, you may need a more aggressive bid.

D’Onta Foreman (35%)/Dontrelle Hilliard (30%)/Jeremy McNichols (5%)

Tevin Coleman – 20%

Jeff Wilson (20%)/JaMycal Hasty (15%)

Jalen Richard – 8%

Peyton Barber – 5%

Carlos Hyde – 5%

Running Back Committees

Note: In these instances, multiple players on the same team, in the same position group, warrant discussion. If one or more of those players in these position groups could be a potential option for this week, I provide a bid suggestion in those instances.

Panthers RBs

Eagles RBs

Seahawks RBs

Running Backs — Deep Leagues

Note: These options are geared for players interested in churning the back end of their roster in competitive leagues with deep rosters such as the FFPC Main Event or Scott Fish Bowl.

Benny Snell – 1% FAAB Budget

Wide Receivers

Russell Gage – 25% FAAB Budget

Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 20%

Jamison Crowder – 15%

Tre’Quan Smith – 15%

Gabriel Davis – 15%

K.J. Osborn – 10%

Wide Receiver Groups

Lions WRs

Wide Receivers — Deep Leagues

Note: These options are geared for players interested in churning the back end of their roster in competitive leagues with deep rosters such as the FFPC Main Event or Scott Fish Bowl.

Jalen Guyton – 3% FAAB Budget

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin – 30% FAAB Budget

Cole Kmet – 25%

Jared Cook – 20%

Ricky Seals-Jones/John Bates – 15%

Ryan Griffin – 5%

James O’Shaughnessy – 5%

Defenses

Note: This is a great week for defensive streamers, where you could be aggressive on any of these options. Bid suggestions here are more so to show you how I’d rank this week’s group.

Titans Defense vs Jacksonville – 10%

Broncos Defense vs Detroit – 8%

Saints Defense at Jets – 7%

Chargers Defense vs Giants – 6%

Packers Defense vs Bears – 5%

Seahawks Defense at Houston – 3%

Week 15 Defenses

Dolphins Defense vs Jets

49ers Defense vs Falcons

Kickers

Matt Prater – 10% FAAB Budget

Drop considerations and a waiver priority key are listed at the end of this column.

Quarterbacks

Taysom Hill, Saints, 20% FAAB Budget: Hill has an injured finger on this throwing hand that he still intends to play with as of this writing, but that kind of injury comes with considerable downside, as there are paths to Hill having to leave a game early if it’s negatively impacting his play. With that said, Hill had four interceptions last Thursday night against Dallas, but he also had 264 yards in the air with two scores while breaching 100 yards on the ground against the Cowboys. That rushing upside is why Hill is an interesting option in fantasy, as we can reasonably expect 200 or more yards in the air, another 40 or more on the ground, with a few touchdowns in most contests when Hill is the full-time quarterback for the Saints.

Taylor Heinicke, Washington, 8%: As my buddy Joe said a few weeks ago, Heinicke doesn’t understand that he’s not supposed to beat Tom Brady. Heinicke is one of those kinds of guys and you have to hand it to him, because Washington is now 6-6 and the current No. 6 seed in the NFC after starting 2-6 heading into their Week 9 bye. Heinicke has scored between 12.22 and 23.14 DraftKings points during the span, which makes him a solid option in a plus matchup as Washington hosts Dallas as 4-point home underdogs. Washington faces Dallas and Philadelphia twice each over the next four weeks, making him a pretty viable streaming option in all of those contests. If you plan to use Heinicke in all of those matchups, be more aggressive than 8% on your bid.

Justin Fields, Bears, 5%: We can be pretty certain that Fields will only play here if he’s 100% healthy after suffering a rib injury against the Ravens back on November 21st. If he does return to action in Green Bay for Sunday Night Football, this is an interesting position for him as the Bears will likely have to play from behind and Fields carrying this team could be the only chance Chicago has of making this one interesting against their primary rival. Given Fields’ dynamic ability as a runner while being a capable passer, I’d be interested in his potential upside in this spot.

Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos, 3%: As we saw last Sunday night, average Teddy cannot be trusted. But after getting embarrassed in front of a national audience, the Broncos get the Lions in Denver as 8-point home favorites. The Broncos still have a supremely talented group of pass catchers, they are still in Wild Card contention, and Detroit has one of the worst pass defenses in football. If ever there was a spot for this offense to hang some serious production, it’s here.

Cam Newton, Panthers, 1%: I’d be looking to avoid having anything to do with the Panthers right now after they just fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but Carolina does host Atlanta’s back-of-the-pack defense this week as 3-point home favorites, and Cam brings rushing upside to the table.

Week 15 Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa vs Jets: Tua and Miami have their bye this week, but they have been red hot during their five-game win streak. When the Dolphins return to action, Tua gets the Jets’ extremely beatable pass defense at home. A 300-yard, three-touchdown kind of day is on the table here for Tua.

Jimmy Garoppolo vs Falcons: Jimmy has played reasonably well during the 49ers’ hot streak that has them back in playoff contention, but San Francisco lost in Seattle last week and that will make this a borderline must-win for both of these teams. Considering that Atlanta has one of the worst pass defenses in the league, Jimmy has some interesting upside here.

Jared Goff vs Cardinals: I’ve said this a few times over the course of the year in various articles, but Goff gets a little too much heat sometimes, as he’s better than a handful of other starting quarterbacks in the league and he’s often talked about as if he’s the literal worst. Goff showed that he has some ceiling last week against the Vikings, as he threw for 296 yards and three scores as he led Detroit to their first win of the season. The floor is scary here considering the Lions’ lack of talent at wide receiver, but Goff has some interesting upside here against an opponent he’s familiar with.

Running Backs

D’Onta Foreman (35%)/Dontrelle Hilliard (30%)/Jeremy McNichols (5%), Titans: In a nutshell, I’m playing this one as if Foreman is the play when the Titans are more likely to be in a positive or neutral game script like we should expect them to be this week against the Jaguars. Hilliard will be the better option if the Titans are playing from behind, with there being a very real chance that once McNichols returns, he hurts Hilliard more than Foreman. The games against Jacksonville this week and at Houston in Week 18 look like Foreman games, where the matchups in the middle (at PIT, vs SF (TNF), and vs MIA) have more potential to be neutral, if not negative game scripts for the Titans. If you lean Hilliard over Foreman, I wouldn’t really go out of my way to talk you out of that, as Hilliard has played well enough to have potentially made McNichols the distant third option in this group.

Tevin Coleman, Jets, 20%: Since Michael Carter has been sidelined, Coleman has largely been the guy in the Jets’ backfield. This week’s matchup against the Saints’ run defense is a tough one, but it’s likely that Coleman will see the bulk of the carries while having the potential to see several targets.

Jeff Wilson (20%)/JaMycal Hasty (15%), 49ers: Primary back Elijah Mitchell suffered a concussion last week in Seattle, leaving his availability this week against the Bengals in doubt. Wilson had a “flare up” on his previously injured knee while Hasty rarely sees 10 or more opportunities in a game, leaving this 49ers backfield in a pretty uncertain situation heading into this week’s matchup in Cincinnati. If Mitchell was out and Wilson was fine, Wilson would be an interesting option that would warrant a more aggressive bid at this late juncture in the season. On a couple of my own teams, I have held Wilson after his disappointing outing against the Jaguars a few weeks ago. With Trey Sermon on IR, if Mitchell and Wilson both miss this contest, Hasty could end up seeing the biggest workload of his career to date.

Jalen Richard, Raiders, 8%: Josh Jacobs has seen much more work as a pass catcher since the departure of Jon Gruden, but with Kenyan Drake now out for the year, Richard is likely to be the guy that supplements Jacobs in that phase. Richard missed last week’s game against Washington as he was put on the COVID list, but he has been a passing-game-centric running back for years.

Peyton Barber, Raiders, 5%: With Kenyan Drake now out for the year, Barber would likely see the majority of the carries for Las Vegas if Josh Jacobs were to miss time.

Carlos Hyde, Jaguars, 5%: James Robinson ended up playing last week against the Rams, but he roughly split with Hyde during that blowout loss. If the Jaguars elected to play it safe with Robinson on the injury front, the Jaguars are one of the worst offenses in football, but Hyde would likely see the vast majority of the work in Jacksonville’s backfield.

Running Back Committees

Panthers RBs: When it first happened, I was surprised that the Panthers hired Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator, as I assumed Matt Rhule would want to run his offense. I never got the extreme enthusiasm with Rhule, but this hire genuinely made me think more of him. I mention all of this because the firing of Brady was truly bizarre, and the shift to a more run-heavy ideology may be good for Chuba Hubbard. In last week’s waiver wire column, I laid out the recent usage for both Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah, as Abdullah (73 snaps, 13 carries, 15 targets) has seen an edge in both playing time and opportunities over Hubbard (38 snaps, 14 carries, three targets) during the Panthers’ last four games. With a new offensive play caller, that recent usage lean towards Abdullah could be much less meaningful, to the point that I’d view the two of them more evenly now and wouldn’t mind if you preferred Chuba given this new development.

Eagles RBs: This could be another mess if Miles Sanders ends up missing time on the other side of Philadelphia’s bye this week. If he does, we can reasonably expect Jordan Howard to come back in Week 15 versus Washington and likely take the lead in a committee with little to no passing-game work. Boston Scott, who saw no work against the Jets last week while being questionable with an illness, would most likely be the first complement to Howard based off of previous deployments when Sanders was out. Kenneth Gainwell, who had a real nice game against the Jets last week with 54 yards rushing and a score on 12 carries to go with catching all five of his targets for 33 yards, has seen the most all-over-the-road work all year. I’d view Gainwell as more of a churn option based on past deployments when Sanders was out, though Gainwell was good enough last week to have potentially earned a more consistent role going forward. Considering that the Eagles are idle this week, if there is any negative news on Sanders, I’m interested in grabbing any of these options cheap, though my order would be Howard > Scott > Gainwell as of today.

Seahawks RBs: This backfield has been a fantasy wasteland all year, but Seattle’s offense appears to be trending in the right direction and therefore we should at least be aware of what’s going on here. First, Travis Homer had three carries for 80 yards while catching 4-of-5 targets for 10 yards, though Homer scored on a 73-yard carry on a fake punt early in the game. The passing-game usage for Homer is interesting and not entirely unprecedented, but the rushing production is an outlier that should pretty much be ignored for fantasy purposes. Otherwise, Rashaad Penny (10 carries, one target) and the recently acquired Adrian Peterson (11 carries, no targets) roughly split the workload with Alex Collins sidelined. Peterson getting 11 carries, including a rushing touchdown in a close, do-or-die contest against rival San Francisco, does not show a lot of confidence in Penny.

Running Backs — Deep Leagues

Note: These options are geared for players interested in churning the back end of their roster in competitive leagues with deep rosters such as the FFPC Main Event or Scott Fish Bowl.

Benny Snell, Steelers, 1% FAAB Budget: Considering the volume Najee Harris has had this season, I don’t mind the idea of making Snell part of your back-of-the-roster churn if you have an otherwise underwhelming option. If San Francisco ends up signing someone this week given their bevy of injuries at the running back position, that runner could also become an interesting churn option this week.

Wide Receivers

Russell Gage, Falcons, 25% FAAB Budget: We’ve been discussing Gage in waivers for weeks, as he’s been a solid PPR option in this Falcons offense for years. With him now coming off a 11-130-0 spike game, you’re going to have to probably pay up for Gage now if you want him, likely even beyond this 25% bid suggestion. Given the Falcons’ upcoming schedule through the fantasy playoffs, I wouldn’t mind being aggressive on Gage if he’s available in your league, but we probably shouldn’t be expecting double-digit catches with any regularity moving forward.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers, 20%: Before the Packers’ bye last week, MVS saw 10 and then nine targets in each of the previous two weeks. Many of us have held out some hope that MVS would someday emerge as the standalone WR2 in this offense, as he’s been an inconsistent perimeter burner in a Packers wide receiver group that lacks significant talent outside of Davante Adams. If this usage continues, that day may actually be here.

Jamison Crowder, Jets, 15%: With Corey Davis now out for the year, Crowder is much more likely to become a more consistent factor for this offense through the rest of the year.

Tre’Quan Smith, Saints, 15%: We shouldn’t frame the Saints’ passing attack as anything more than unreliable, but Smith has had between five and eight targets in each of the last four games.

Gabriel Davis, Bills, 15%: If I wanted to take a shot on an upside streamer at wide receiver this week, it would be Davis against the Buccaneers. If I wanted to take a shot on a high-upside stash at wide receiver that is available in most fantasy leagues, I would take that shot on Davis.

K.J. Osborn, Vikings, 10%: With Adam Thielen trending towards missing this Thursday’s bout with the Steelers, Osborn is the Vikings wide receiver likely to benefit the most if Thielen misses any time. Osborn has had plenty of games with limited production as the Vikings’ third wide receiver this season, but he’s breached 14 PPR points on four separate occasions, so we know that he’s capable of a solid performance when given opportunities.

Wide Receiver Groups

Lions RBs: If you want to grab Josh Reynolds after two solid weeks or bet on Amon-Ra St. Brown after his 10-86-1 line on 12 targets against the Vikings last week, that’s perfectly reasonable. The Lions also have interesting matchups against the Cardinals and Falcons over the next few weeks, that both represent some interesting shootout potential. With that said, Detroit’s wide receiver group has been extremely unreliable all season and they head to Denver this week to face one of the league’s best secondaries.

Wide Receivers — Deep Leagues

Note: These options are geared for players interested in churning the back end of their roster in competitive leagues with deep rosters such as the FFPC Main Event or Scott Fish Bowl.

Jalen Guyton, Chargers, 3% FAAB Budget: With Keenan Allen on the COVID list, his status for this week’s game with the Giants is very much in doubt. If Keenan ends up missing this contest, Guyton has seen a significant amount of his reps in the slot and could be in line for some role expansion for at least one game.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin, Vikings, 30% FAAB Budget: With Adam Thielen’s status in doubt for at least this week’s Thursday night game against the Steelers, the already talented and solid Conklin could be in store for some role expansion. If you’re in trouble at the tight end position and Conklin is available, I wouldn’t be opposed to going after him more aggressively.

Cole Kmet, Bears, 25%: After 11 targets on Thanksgiving in Detroit, Kmet was one of four Bears with seven targets against the Cardinals last week.

Jared Cook, Chargers, 20%: If Keenan Allen misses this week’s contest against the Giants, Cook already sees at least three targets every week and could see a bit of a usage spike against New York’s below-average group of linebackers.

Ricky Seals-Jones/John Bates, Washington, 15%: With Logan Thomas out for the year, Bates will be the guy until Seals-Jones is able to return, which could be this week. Earlier in the year when Seals-Jones filled in for Thomas, he had a nice three-game run where he posted between 9.1 and 15.8 DraftKings points in each game. Bates was a rookie, but he caught my eye as a solid tight end against the Buccaneers several weeks ago.

Ryan Griffin, Jets, 5%: Over the last five games, Griffin has seen four or more targets in three of them, with as many as seven back in early November against the Colts on Thursday Night Football.

James O’Shaughnessy, Jaguars, 5%: The production wasn’t there with a 2-13 line, but O’Shaughnessy saw six targets against the Rams last week. Jacksonville has been feeding the tight end position noteworthy volume throughout the year, which seems like it may continue in the absence of Dan Arnold.

Defenses

Note: This is a great week for defensive streamers, where you could be aggressive on any of these options. Bid suggestions here are more so to show you how I’d rank this week’s group.

Titans Defense vs Jacksonville, 10% FAAB Budget: The Titans really needed their bye, and ultimately this is a bet against the Jaguars’ offense, which has been among the worst offenses in the league all year. Among the reasons that I have the Titans on top here this week is that they are well-coached and their pass rush was dominant against premium opponents earlier in the year. We know that Tennessee will be highly motivated, as they are currently on top of the AFC South, and if this defense can return to form this week, they could be useful long term.

Broncos Defense vs Detroit, 8%: This is a potential bounce-back spot for Denver against a Detroit team that won their first game last week in emotional fashion (putting a bad team in a potential letdown spot). If the Broncos take an early lead here, things could get ugly quick for the Lions’ offense.

Saints Defense at Jets, 7%: While I don’t think the Jets’ offense is good, I do think they have more current potential than most seem to. With that said, New Orleans is currently in desperation mode where they absolutely have to win this game and this is ultimately a matchup against a rookie quarterback that’s leading a volatile offense.

Chargers Defense vs Giants, 6%: If this defense was more consistent, this would be an absolute lock play this week against one of the worst offenses in football. Even with the Chargers’ inconsistencies on defense, the upside is huge in this matchup as 10.5-point favorites, regardless of which quarterback suits up for New York.

Packers Defense vs Bears, 5%: If Andy Dalton gets the start here, I like this option much more. Realistically speaking, the Packers’ defense in this spot would be the top streaming option most weeks. This just so happens to be a very strong week for defensive streamers.

Seahawks Defense at Houston, 3%: This would be another outstanding streaming option most weeks, and in deep or more competitive leagues, they may absolutely warrant a more aggressive bid, as ultimately we can stream anyone against Houston. As an example, one of my leagues has roughly eight defenses available currently, so I will be streaming Seattle there this week.

Week 15 Defenses

Dolphins Defense vs Jets: The bye may actually hurt red-hot Miami, but in this matchup we can reasonably expect the Dolphins to continue to be blitz-heavy against Zach Wilson. We can’t ask for much more than a good, aggressive pass defense against a mostly struggling rookie quarterback like Wilson.

49ers Defense vs Falcons: I’m not crazy about this matchup for the 49ers’ defense, but in a week that lacks many solid streaming options, I’d prefer to bet against a limited offense like the Falcons.

Kickers

Matt Prater, Cardinals, 10% FAAB Budget: Prater is a rock-solid kicker, in a highly capable offense that is currently the top seed in the NFC, and he’ll be kicking in an indoor environment in every game the rest of the way. If Prater is available in your league and you are average or worse at kicker, I would aggressively pursue him with the intention of playing him every week through the rest of the season.

Drop Considerations

Carson Wentz: With the Colts on their bye this week and hosting the Patriots next week, unless you’re saving (or withholding) Wentz for Week 16 at Arizona or Week 17 vs the Raiders, he’s potentially droppable.

Kenyan Drake: Drake is out for the year and droppable for anyone.

Bills RBs: I would drop any Bills runner for either of the top two Titans options, and I would do the same for Jeff Wilson if he’s trending in the right direction and Elijah Mitchell is not as the week progresses.

Corey Davis: Davis is out for the year and can be dropped for anyone.

Kenny Golladay: Golladay is a contested-catch wide receiver and the Giants do not have a quarterback that is capable of delivering tight-window passes to anyone with that skill set with any consistency. Maybe there will be better days for him this season, but right now he’s unplayable.

Emmanuel Sanders: On one of my teams, I’m debating dropping Sanders for Gabriel Davis, which is aggressive, but Davis has caught my attention a few times over the last month.

Courtland Sutton: I don’t really want to drop him at all, especially not against the Lions, but he’s pretty much unplayable in season-long currently.

Waiver Priority Key

20% or more: Warrants the first overall waiver move (depending on your situation).

10-19%: Warrants an early move, potentially the top move based off team need.

5-9%: If you don’t have an immediate roster need, I’d usually try to get these players for free. If you do have an immediate need, using a mid-range priority is fine; beyond that is entirely based on team need/situation.

0-4%: Try to get these for free as often as possible.