XFL Top Plays: Week 6

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated, if necessary.

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

 

QUARTERBACK

Ben DiNucci (Seattle – $11,500) – DiNucci is coming off of a somewhat disappointing Week 5 start, in which he “only” put up 21.66 DraftKings points. The most reliable XFL QB to this point, DiNucci gets the dream matchup with the basement-dwelling Orlando Guardians this week, making him our top play and cash-game QB of choice. 

A.J. McCarron (St. Louis – $10,900) – Perhaps even more consistent than DiNucci, A.J. McCarron continued his steady performances in Week 5, dropping back 34 times for 236 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He now gets a battle with the Vegas Vipers in what has the highest game total of the week at 44.5, and a tight 3.5-point spread.

 

RUNNING BACK

Abram Smith (D.C. – $9,400) – We figured a big game was coming for Smith, as the role has been great on a good offense that wants to be very run-heavy. However, we couldn’t have ever imagined a game like we saw out of the ex-Baylor Bear in Week 5. Smith went absolutely nuke for a 23/218/3 line on the ground for a smooth 43.5 DraftKings points. With the Defenders continuing to be run-first (they #EstablishedIt on a 56% clip in Week 5), while also being the only 5-0 team in the league, it’s hard not to view Smith as the best overall RB play in the XFL and in XFL DFS at the moment.

Brian Hill (St. Louis – $8,900) – While we haven’t seen the explosion game out of Hill as we have out of Abram Smith, the Battlehawks’ lead back continues to have a well-rounded and productive role for this 3-2 St. Louis team. Despite only playing in four of five games, Hill is second in the league in rushing (trailing only A. Smith after his 200+ yard performance), and he has an established presence in the passing game too, hauling in between two and four receptions in each of his outings so far.

Darius Bradwell (Seattle – $5500) – Bradwell was just added to the Sea Dragons active roster on March 7th but that’s not going to prevent him from serving as the team’s undisputed RB1 just 17 days later. Morgan Ellison has already been ruled out and RB/WR hybrid T.J. Hammonds has yet to command a meaningful workload. This should be Bradwell’s backfield as his team takes on a Guardians defense as 9.5-point favorites.

 

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Jahcour Pearson (Seattle – $11,300) – Another week, another slate where Jahcour Pearson produces. Despite Seattle’s somewhat disappointing offensive output, Pearson continues to find a floor, catching 5-of-8 targets for 82 yards in Week 5. However, at over $11K, you need a much bigger performance than that from Seattle’s No. 1 WR, and he is likely touchdown-dependent. That said, in DiNucci stacks, or as an anchor spend-up option, Pearson still makes sense in cash or GPPs.

Hakeem Butler (St. Louis – $9,800) – Butler has clearly developed a rapport with QB A.J. McCarron, as the two ex-NFLers have linked up for top-five receiving stats across the board for Butler. He’s second in receptions, fifth in yards, and second in touchdowns, and has shown no signs of letting up after piling up another 12 targets last week. The Battlehawks face a Vegas team this Saturday that gave up 32 points to Orlando last week, so the McCarron/Butler stacks should have a chance to cook.

Cody Latimer (Orlando – $7,000) – Latimer is clearly underpriced here compared to his other top-tier XFL pass catchers, and he follows a theme set forward by the aforementioned Butler. He’s become his team’s clear top target earner, and the ex-NFL WR has transitioned to XFL “tight end’ impeccably. Latimer went nuts for nearly 30 DK points in Week 5, with an impressive 8/129/1 line. He gets Seattle this weekend in a game in which the Guardians will likely be playing catch-up as 9.5-point underdogs.

Justin Smith (Houston – $4,100) – It can’t be a Top Plays article without mentioning a Houston WR, and unfortunately for Houston fans and XFL DFS players alike, top-tier WR Jontre Kirklin has been lost for the season after suffering a chest injury. Stepping in is Justin Smith, who played on 65-of-70 total snaps in Week 5, and he should be considered the likeliest rest-of-season replacement for Kirklin. His $4,100 salary-saving price tag makes him a clear cash-game target and candidate for this Top Plays list.

 

DEFENSE

Seattle Sea Dragons ($4,200) – Seattle has the fortune of playing Orlando this week and they enter as 9.5-point favorites. They also have a solid defense and are coming off back-to-back weeks of double-digit DraftKings points.

 

THE SOLVER RULE SUGGESTIONS

Rule 1: At most 1 ARL RB/WR/TE

Arlington’s offense has been bad and they just added another piece in Victor Bolden, who could be anywhere from “barely involved” to “WR1”.  The uncertainty in the pass catchers and the lack of explosiveness in the offense has us wanting to limit them to only one RB/WR/TE.

 

Rule 2: At least 1 player where pOWN < 10%

The league is still volatile in terms of usage and performance.  The scores are low enough to where a medium-length TD is enough to produce a GPP winning score.  We think playing low owned players is still +EV as people get overconfident in the production of the top players.