XFL Top Plays: Week 9

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated, if necessary.

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

 

QUARTERBACK

Ben DiNucci (Seattle – $12,200) – Despite the insanely pricey tag, DiNucci still projects as the starting point for most cash games, especially with his biggest season-long competition, A.J. McCarron, potentially on the shelf for another week. DiNucci had one of his best games of the season in Week 8’s shootout with D.C., completing 28-of-42 passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns. He gets another possible shootout spot with St. Louis in the last game of the weekend.

Quinten Dormady (Orlando – $10,600) – DraftKings quickly raised Dormady’s price toward the top of the QBs, trailing only DiNucci and McCarron. That price ascension, however, has been well earned. Dormady followed up his monster 48.32-point Week 7 performance with another rock-solid 21.82 points, which included 300 yards through the air and a rushing touchdown to boot. He gets a pretty good matchup with San Antonio this week, and if Dormady can continue to do it both on the ground and through the air, he’ll be viable in cash or GPPs.

Jordan Ta’amu (D.C. – $10,100) – Give credit where it’s due to Ta’amu, who has overcome a slow start and a pretty poor USFL season last year to possibly be the best QB in the XFL and the leader of the league’s best team. Ta’amu kept his foot on the gas in Week 8, further establishing his connection with rising WR Chris Blair. Ta’amu had an ultra-efficient line: 17-of-26 for 247 yards and four touchdowns. The downside risk here is that the Defenders have nothing to play for, having already locked up a spot in the North Division championship.

 

RUNNING BACK

Abram Smith (D.C. – $10,600) – DraftKings went ahead and raised Smith’s price once again, and the top RB in the league is now a whopping $10.6K, more expensive than his surging QB Jordan Ta’amu. It’s simply hard to click on him at that price in GPPs, but he’s still very much on the cash radar, as he has the highest weekly floor of all XFL RBs.

Brian Hill (St. Louis – $10,400) – All of a sudden, Brian Hill is right up there with Smith and is being priced with the QBs. At $10.4K, Hill is also a hard click this week, but his consistency has rolled on, continuing his streak of double-digit points for the seventh straight game in Week 8. He also continues to be a force in the passing game, earning another seven targets this past week.

Jacques Patrick (San Antonio – $7,700) – With the insane price tags on Smith and Hill, it’s really hard to fade Patrick at $7,700. DK raised his price from $6,800, but it’s not high enough, especially when you consider the price of the two names you see above. Since taking over the lead role in Week 6, Patrick has been dominant. He played on 69% of snaps in Week 8 and is a force all over the field. Last week, he racked up 134 all-purpose yards while finding the end zone, and he gets a date with Orlando this week. He’s a near cash-game lock, and it’s hard to fade him in tournaments, too.

 

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Hakeem Butler (St. Louis – $11,000) – Butler remains one of the most expensive WRs in the league at $11K, but the role remains very strong. While he hasn’t flashed a ceiling game in a while, we wouldn’t be surprised to see one come at any time for the XFL’s leader in receiving touchdowns. He played on 58-of-59 snaps in Week 8 and St. Louis threw the ball at a 70% clip. He may take a slight hit if it’s Nick Tiano under center again, but Butler’s upside remains regardless.

Chris Blair (D.C. – $5,900) – It’s time we give Chris Blair his props, as he has emerged as Jordan Ta’amu’s favorite target over the past two weeks. In Week 7, Blair put up a 6/151/1 line and followed it up with a 5/148/1 performance last weekend. He’s still far too cheap at $5,900, and he can be used in Ta’amu stacks or on his own.

Eli Rogers (Orlando – $5,300) – Eli Rogers finally burst out on the scene in Week 8, connecting with ascending QB Quentin Dormady for a whopping 10/135/1 line. Additionally, Cody Latimer seems likely to miss Week 9 after being a DNP all week, which could set up a repeat performance for the former Pittsburgh Steeler.

Juwan Green (Seattle – $6,100) – Green is not as good of a value as he was last week at $4,500, but he’s still underpriced at just north of $6K on DraftKings. While Jahcour Pearson and Blake Jackson continue to have the best roles of Seattle WRs, the Sea Dragons have consistently proven they can support 3+ pass catchers, and Green played on nearly 68% of snaps in Week 8, up from 61% in Week 7.

 

DEFENSE

D.C. Defenders ($4,700) 

San Antonio Brahmas ($4,100)