Dynasty Outlook
March 9
Zay Flowers is our WR4 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR26 in our overall dynasty ranks. His second-year breakout still gives Flowers a quality probability of success historically, despite being a four-year college player. T.Y. Hilton is a comparable player that shows up from the scouts, raw data, and PCA analysis. We should be able to expect multi-faceted production at the next level. He is safer than someone like Quentin Johnston, but he probably doesn’t have the same kind of overall ceiling.
Profile Summary
Flowers is built in the mold of a modern WR. His weight at the Combine keeps him from being a slot-only WR, and while he was a four-year college player, he broke out in his second season. Flowers offered production on the ground as well as through the air. His comps provide some similar players based on his raw statistical profile, as well as what the scouts have presented.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/22) — 22.3
Experience — 4 years
By the Numbers
Flowers was a three-star WR who was immediately involved in the B.C. offense as a true freshman. He was third in receiving in their low-volume passing offense, just 168 yards behind the team leader. Flowers also amassed a whopping 27 carries. The Eagles brought on a new coaching staff in 2020, and it led to the team passing more. It also led to a Flowers breakout. He continued to build on that production in 2021.
Though Flowers was draft eligible after his junior year, he decided to come back as a senior, establishing career highs in all receiving categories. He also took on some punt return responsibilities. Flowers dominated team touches more than most WRs do during his collegiate career, with a career share of team touches of 10%. He totaled 57 carries to go with his 200 career receptions. Here are all the Day 1 and 2 WRs since 2000 to amass at least 175 catches, 40 rush attempts, and 25 touchdowns:
Sammy Watkins
Tavon Austin
Jeremy Maclin
Brandin Cooks
Kendall Wright
Titus Young
Andy Isabella
Jerrel Jernigan
T.Y. Hilton
It’s not an elite group of players (though it is perhaps worth noting that Antonio Brown also makes this list if we include later draftees), but the versatile production continued for many of these players at the pro level.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein fancies Flowers as a playmaker out of the slot:
Slot target who plays with unbridled energy and immense confidence. Flowers is slightly built but can side-step press and fly into action with above-average acceleration and an attacking demeanor. Flowers has a tendency to rush his routes, but his ability to play with speed and move with athleticism makes him hard to read for defenders. His ball skills will shine brightly at times, but frustrating drops come with the package. Flowers has the skill set to become a valuable playmaker as a pro.
Daniel Jeremiah added steam to the Hilton comp:
Flowers is an undersized wideout with outstanding quickness, ball skills, and production. He took the majority of his reps outside, but he’s also very productive in the slot. He is extremely quick in his release and at the top of his routes. He doesn’t waste any steps or movement. He does everything full speed. He has a very good feel working in zones. He has strong hands to extend for the ball or reach back and pluck it off his back hip. He tracks the deep ball with ease. He is outstanding on jet sweeps because of his quickness and make-you-miss ability. Overall, Flowers’ only flaw is his lack of size and bulk. He reminds me of T.Y. Hilton.
Dane Brugler had little to say about Flowers in his most recent mock:
Flowers is a smaller target (5-foot-9, 182), which isn’t ideal, but he is a savvy and sudden competitor with the route pacing to create space for his quarterback.
Draft Projection
Flowers currently has an expected draft position of 29.0 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Flowers 31st overall. He went 29th in Jeremiah’s most recent mock and 22nd in Brugler’s most recent mock. Flowers is looking like a late first-round pick.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
This is an excellent group of comps, with the headliner (and top comp by similarity) being 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson. Hilton was a scout comp that we see here, and he was a long-term, high-level producer. Greg Jennings and Desean Jackson were also excellent producers. While he wasn’t quite as good as Wilson, Jahan Dotson had a promising rookie year last season. Will Fuller was injured a lot, but he was always productive on the field.
The one red flag downside comp is Corey Coleman, who ostensibly never did anything at the NFL level. Chris Givens was decent for two seasons before falling off a cliff, while Mario Manningham had a WR2 season with the Giants. K.J. Hamler is another injury case, and he has not been able to do much so far in his career.
