Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 1

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 1. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 1 Bye Week: None

DL Rankings – Week 1

1. Steelers
2. Giants
3. Texans
4. Broncos
5. Vikings
6. Rams
7. Seahawks
8. Packers
9. Eagles
10. Ravens
11. Patriots
12. Browns
13. Jets
14. Chiefs
15. Bills
16. 49ers
17. Titans
18. Raiders
19. Colts
20. Dolphins
21. Lions
22. Bucs
23. Cardinals
24. Cowboys
25. Jaguars
26. Commanders
27. Saints – DE Chase Young suffered a calf injury during practice on Wednesday and missed practice on Thursday.
28. Bengals
29. Bears
30. Panthers
31. Chargers
32. Falcons

OL Rankings – Week 1

1. Eagles
2. Bills
3. Broncos
4. Bucs – LT Tristan Wirfs is expected to make his season debut in Week 4 against the Eagles with Week 3 against the Jets being possible, although less likely.
5. Vikings – LT Christian Darrisaw missed practice on Thursday as he makes his way back from a torn ACL suffered last October. Minnesota plays Monday night, so a Thursday missed practice isn’t as concerning, but it’s worth monitoring into the weekend to gauge his status for Week 1.
6. Lions
7. Bears
8. Commanders – RG Sam Cosmi will begin the season on the PUP list, keeping him out for at least the first four games.
9. Titans
10. Ravens
11. Chiefs
12. Packers
13. Cowboys
14. Panthers – LT Ikem Ekwonu underwent an appendectomy on Sept. 1, and missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He is questionable for Week 1.
15. Colts
16. Rams
17. Browns
18. Steelers
19. Jets – RG Alijah Vera-Tucker suffered a season-ending arm injury at practice this week.
20. Saints – LG Trevor Penning missed practice on Wednesday and Thusday with a toe injury.
21. 49ers – RG Dominick Puni has been limited in practice with a knee injury but will likely still start.
22. Cardinals
23. Falcons
24. Patriots
25. Chargers
26. Raiders
27. Giants
28. Dolphins
29. Seahawks
30. Bengals
31. Jaguars
32. Texans