It’s Week 15, which means this is the second-to-last awards column of the season. The Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year markets both have significant favorites on top of those races. Everything else still has at least a few players with a path to victory. We’ll first discuss a couple of strategies in the Offensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year markets. Then we’ll take a deep dive into the MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year markets.
Value Options and Betting Strategies
Coach of the Year Value Option: Sean Payton (+900 to +1200 BetMGM, FanDuel)
Denver has won six of their last seven games, which puts them right in the AFC Wild Card race. The Broncos are 5-point road underdogs in Detroit this week, which gives us two strategies to consider. The first is several books have left awards markets open during games this season. If Denver starts slow in this matchup, we can wait to see Payton’s odds next week with games against the Patriots, Chargers, and Raiders to close out the year. If Denver starts strong, we can potentially grab this option in-game, as Payton will be a roughly +350 type option next week if the Broncos beat Detroit. If the Broncos make the playoffs, Payton fits the prototypical profile of a Coach of the Year winner.
Another positive for the traditional contenders in this market is that bad losses by the Lions and Dolphins should negatively impact Dan Campbell and Mike McDaniel in this race. Neither is a traditional candidate, as both teams had winning records last season.
Our Week 17 awards article will focus heavily on the Coach of the Year market, as that race is routinely decided in the last week of the regular season. For example, Week 18’s matchup between the Texans and Colts could decide who wins this race.
Offensive Player of the Year Strategy
This race largely mimics 2021’s Offensive Player of the Year race between Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor. Like this year’s race, that one was neck and neck for months until Kupp took a small lead late. A wrinkle in this year’s race is Hill’s (-200) ankle injury on Monday night.
Hill returned late, but there is some chance that he suffered a high ankle sprain. If that is the case, it could cost him games. In that event, Christian McCaffrey (+150) could become a massive favorite in a short period of time. If you have a mid-range longshot ticket on Hill, you should consider hedging with McCaffrey given Hill’s injury uncertainty.
The MVP Race
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