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Week 12 Recap

 

A.J. Brown, Allen Robinson, Tyler Boyd and Mike Gesicki all had good weeks in the model. Overall 7 of 12 players beat their opportunity based projections. A.J. Brown was less than 1 percent owned.

 

Here are the full results for Week 12:

 

Player Team Projection Week 12 DK Points
Davante Adams NA 15.4 17.3
Julio Jones ATL 13.5 11.8
Odell Beckham CLE 13.2 20.4
Evan Engram NYG 11.2 OUT
Sammy Watkins NA 9.8 BYE
Gerald Everett NA 9.8 BYE
Alshon Jeffery PHI 9.5 OUT
Mike Gesicki MIA 9.4 11.8
A.J. Brown TEN 9.4 26.5
Josh Reynolds NA 9.3 BYE
Paul Richardson WAS 9.1 1.6
Chris Conley JAX 9.1 8.9
Auden Tate CIN 9.1 2
Kenny Stills HOU 8.7 1.6
Allen Robinson CHI 8.7 28.1
Nelson Agholor PHI 8.7 OUT
Danny Amendola DET 8.2 5.1
Eric Ebron IND 8.1 8.4
Tyler Boyd CIN 8.1 23.1

 

Week 13

 

The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.

The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.61 (up 4 points from 0.57 in Week 12, and the highest out of sample figure of the year).

Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.

In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.

 

KEY

* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game over the past three games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.

 

Teams on BYE this Week are: NONE

 

Name TM Projection Actual  Difference
Odell Beckham CLE 13.9 13.7 -0.2
D.K. Metcalf SEA 11.6 9.8 -1.8
Courtland Sutton DEN 10.9 10 -0.9
Anthony Miller CHI 10.1 8.9 -1.1
Eric Ebron IND 9.5 8.6 -0.9
Nelson Agholor PHI 9.4 8 -1.4
Darren Waller OAK 9.3 9 -0.3
Kelvin Harmon WAS 9.2 8.8 -0.4
Cameron Brate TB 9.1 8.7 -0.5
Noah Fant DEN 8.9 7.2 -1.7
Danny Amendola DET 8.8 6.9 -1.9
Diontae Johnson PIT 8.5 6.7 -1.9
Sterling Shepard NYG 8.4 6.5 -1.9
Sammy Watkins KC 8.1 6.8 -1.4

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Odell Beckham Jr. is back on the list after a respectable 20 point week against the Miami LOLphins. This is great news, since you will be able to run  it back to prove that it’s not the matchup that matters, but the opportunity. Great success.
  • D.K Metcalf may not be able to move laterally and use his hands at the same time, but this looks like the week he won’t have to. Go long D.K.
  • Noah Fant is back on the list. I admit to having called him Noah Cant, and refuse to apologize. He’s in redacted territory if we’re honest, but not quite yet. Let’s roll one more time.
  • Sammy Watkins is one of the least talented players on this list and I can’t otherwise recommend starting him. But his QB is Patrick Mahones, so.
  • As always, playing the guys in tournaments that look like terrible shots to actually return value and avoiding chasing “spots” or narratives will yield the lowest ownership.