Week 13 Recap

 

First, Sammy Watkins is hot floating garbage. I think we can all agree on this. Moving on, it was a pretty rotten week for the model outside two solid WR hits. Both Anthony Miller and Courtland Sutton were top ten WRs on the week. For his part, Darren Waller was a top 5 TE. But the happiness really ends there. Sterling Shepard and Decaf Metcalf both came in over their projections, but were still fairly underwhelming. The rest were horrible busts.

I’ve berated the model, and I can report that it is inconsolable. It promised — through heaving sobs — to be better.

Here are the full results for Week 13:

 

Name TM Projection Week 13 Actual
Odell Beckham CLE 13.9 5.9
D.K. Metcalf SEA 11.6 13.5
Courtland Sutton DEN 10.9 23.4
Anthony Miller CHI 10.1 23
Eric Ebron IND 9.5 IR
Nelson Agholor PHI 9.4 7.1
Darren Waller OAK 9.3 17
Kelvin Harmon WAS 9.2 8.1
Cameron Brate TB 9.1 1.5
Noah Fant DEN 8.9 1.5
Danny Amendola DET 8.8 6.2
Diontae Johnson PIT 8.5 4.1
Sterling Shepard NYG 8.4 13
Sammy Watkins KC 8.1 0

 

 

Week 14

 

The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.

The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.55 (down 6 points from 0.61 in Week 13).

Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.

In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.

KEY

* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game over the past three games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.

Teams on BYE this Week are: NONE

 

Name TM Projection Actual Difference DK Salary
Leonard Fournette JAX 13.5 13.3 -0.2 7800
Odell Beckham CLE 12.4 12.1 -0.3 6300
Mike Evans TB 11.2 9.7 -1.5 7200
Darius Slayton NYG 11.2 10.6 -0.6 NA
D.K. Metcalf SEA 10.5 10 -0.5 NA
Christian Kirk ARI 9.7 7.7 -2 5200
Amari Cooper DAL 9.5 7.8 -1.8 NA
Taylor Gabriel CHI 9.3 7.8 -1.5 Concussed?
Kelvin Harmon WAS 9.2 8.6 -0.7 3700
Terry McLaurin WAS 9.2 8.3 -0.9 5100
Hunter Henry LAC 8.7 8 -0.8 5100
Zach Pascal IND 8.7 7.2 -1.5 5500
Auden Tate CIN 8.7 7.4 -1.3 4000
Jamison Crowder NYJ 8.6 8.4 -0.2 5300
Nelson Agholor PHI 8.3 7.5 -0.7 NA

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • I have no idea what Leonard Fournette is doing on the list.
  • Mike Evans is back. What a glorious time to be alive.
  • Christian Kirk is back. I can’t feel my face.
  • Terry “F1” McLaurin makes the list, as Ford V Ferrari gathers Oscar hype. Coincidence? I think not.
  • Zach Pascal seems overpriced and I imagine he could end up high owned, but he appears to be the man in the Indy given all the injuries.