Last Updated: January 17th at 9:45am ET
Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated once on Sunday morning, if necessary.
You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context and positional depth is accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.
The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership or game stacks or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low.
With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: Median projection, matchup, upside and value. Ownership is not considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.” They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.
Patrick Mahomes ($7700 DK, $9500 FD) — Stands far above field in both raw expectation and point-per-dollar expectation. Titans’ inability to generate pressure a big problem.
Ryan Tannehill ($5500 DK, $7700 FD) — Our favorite non-Mahomes QB. Only 15 completions in two playoff wins, but Chiefs offense likely to force Tannehill into at least 25 attempts. Major rushing upside as well.
Derrick Henry ($8700 DK, $9800 FD) — Has unexpectedly run into perfect game flows in each of the last two weeks. Will that happen in Arrowhead? Either way, the Titans’ commitment to Henry means 20+ touches are coming.
Damien Williams ($7000 DK, $7600 FD) — As expected, Williams is now a true bell cow. Played 59 snaps last week compared to one each for LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson.
Aaron Jones ($6700 DK, $7800 FD) — Even with Jamaal Williams (shoulder) back last week, the Packers went full-blown bell cow with Aaron Jones. He’s also their favorite goal-line option, ahead of even Aaron Rodgers throws. That said, matchup here is incredibly difficult as 49ers erase RBs in both the run and pass game.
Raheem Mostert ($4300 DK) — Cramps allowed Tevin Coleman to get a crack last week and he ran so well that the 49ers stuck with him. We expect whoever gets the hot hand Sunday to emerge as the lead back again. Mostert is far cheaper on DraftKings.
Tevin Coleman ($6500 FD) — Kyle Shanahan will again give him a chance to grab the hot hand. If he does, a game similar to last week is at least possible. Coleman is only $700 more than Mostert on Fanduel, but $1400 more on DraftKings.
Davante Adams ($7900 DK, $8300 FD) — Aaron Rodgers is locked onto Adams, who has seen double-digit targets in nine of his last 10 games. Tyreek Hill has a massive matchup and game environment edge on Adams, but Adams’ projects for 3-4 more targets.
Tyreek Hill ($7200 DK, $7400 FD) — Fluky dud last week in a game Patrick Mahomes threw 5 TDs. Matchup this week again pristine. Cheaper on Fanduel.
AJ Brown ($5200 DK, $6800 FD) — Ryan Tannehill has just 29 pass attempts in his last two games, but in Arrowhead he’ll almost certainly be forced into more. In game flows where Tannehill throws 30 times, Brown’s DraftKings’ price is laughably cheap.
Emmanuel Sanders ($4900 DK, $5500 FD) — Older legs and slightly worse CB/WR matchup than Deebo Samuel. But the savings on Sanders are notable.
Travis Kelce ($7100 DK, $7800 FD) — Talked about Kelce’s TD regression in this space last week and it came to fruition with a 3-score eruption. Price is up this week, but Kelce remains a standout play regardless of position.
George Kittle ($5800 DK, $7000 FD) — Last week’s bust has caused Kittle’s price to come down on both sites. Good chance to buy-low and bet on Jimmy Garoppolo’s attempts pushing toward 30. For the second straight week, builds with both Kelce and Kittle are very much in play.
Jonnu Smith ($3400 DK, $5600 FD) — Talented every-down player who would benefit from increased Tannehill attempts. Gets slight nod over Jimmy Graham due to matchup and Graham rotating out heavily last week. That said, if Packers fall behind big we suspect Graham would be the hurry-up tight end.
Chiefs ($3100 DK, $4400 FD) — If the Chiefs can get a big lead and take the Titans’ preferred run rate away, there are paths to a big game. Cheaper on Fanduel.
49ers ($2900 DK, $4600 FD) — Packers offensive line is truly elite, but advantage still goes to the Niners’ nasty defensive front. Aaron Rodgers’ home/road splits and lack of weapons other than Davante Adams are big concerns for Green Bay.
|1||Patrick Mahomes||Patrick Mahomes|
|2||Ryan Tannehill||Ryan Tannehill|
|3||Jimmy Garoppolo||Jimmy Garoppolo|
|4||Aaron Rodgers||Aaron Rodgers|
|1||Damien Williams||Damien Williams|
|2||Raheem Mostert||Aaron Jones|
|3||Derrick Henry||Tevin Coleman|
|4||Aaron Jones||Raheem Mostert|
|1||Tyreek Hill||Tyreek Hill|
|2||A.J. Brown||Emmanuel Sanders|
|3||Davante Adams||Davante Adams|
|4||Deebo Samuel||Corey Davis|
|5||Emmanuel Sanders||A.J. Brown|
|6||Corey Davis||Deebo Samuel|
|7||Sammy Watkins||Sammy Watkins|
|1||George Kittle||Travis Kelce|
|2||Travis Kelce||George Kittle|
|3||Jonnu Smith||Jonnu Smith|
|4||Anthony Firkser||Anthony Firkser|
|5||Jimmy Graham||Jimmy Graham|