Last updated: November 26th at 8:30am ET
Team Totals: Bears 21, Lions 18
The 5-6 Bears visit Detroit with a chance to salvage .500 against a Lions defense that’s allowed the NFL’s eighth-most points per game (26.5) and top-12 fantasy scores to 9-of-11 quarterbacks faced. Mitchell Trubisky offers matchup-based Thanksgiving-only DFS appeal inside Ford Field’s dome after logging his season-best fantasy score in last week’s win over the Giants (QB9) and his second best in Week 10 against these same Lions (QB10). Detroit appears likely to be without top pass rusher Trey Flowers (concussion) and No. 2 CB Rashaan Melvin (ribs). … His traditional running game continuing to sputter, Matt Nagy has enlisted gadget/space back Tarik Cohen for double-digit touches in consecutive weeks (14, 13) and snap rates above 50% in three straight. In addition to upward-trending usage, Cohen stands to benefit from facing a Lions defense permitting the NFL’s third-most receiving yards per game to running backs (58). Cohen is a PPR-specific flex play who may go a bit overlooked in Thanksgiving-only DFS. … David Montgomery’s efficiency has lacked all year in a broken rushing offense, but his still-bankable usage combined with Thursday’s plus draw keep Montgomery in play on Thanksgiving-only slates and as a season-long flex. Montgomery has 15-plus touches in five straight games, his playing time improved to 64% in last week’s win, and Montgomery ran a season-high 23 routes against the Giants. Enemy backs have averaged 157.4 total yards and scored a whopping 17 all-purpose touchdowns in 11 games versus the Lions. Montgomery is tied for the league lead in carries inside the five-yard line (13).
Trubisky’s 2019 target distribution: Allen Robinson 80; Cohen 58; Taylor Gabriel 47; Anthony Miller 39; Montgomery 24; Ben Braunecker, Adam Shaheen, and Cordarrelle Patterson 11; Javon Wims 8. … In these teams’ Week 10 date, Nagy schemed Robinson away from Darius Slay enough that Robinson was targeted just twice in Slay’s coverage and emerged with a robust 6/86/0 stat line. With 60-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 8-of-11 games, Robinson’s floor is higher than his Trubisky-affected reputation belies. Robinson nearly reached 200 yards in last week’s win over the Giants, only to lose a 60-yard gain to penalty. … After a brutal Week 11 where he gained 57 scoreless yards on 14 targets, Gabriel dropped 1-of-3 targets against the Giants, finished with 19 yards, and suffered his second concussion of the year. Annual preseason star Wims has a chance to be a near every-down player at Detroit after logging snap rates of 94% and 93% when Gabriel missed Weeks 4-5, managing uneven stat lines of 4/56/0 and 0/0. A plus-sized (6’3/215) possession receiver with adequate speed (4.53) and contested-catch skills, Wims is arguably Thanksgiving’s top DFS punt play. … Also a likely beneficiary of Gabriel’s loss, Miller has seen 20 targets over the last two games, catching 13 for 131 scoreless yards. Miller is a positive-TD regression candidate with zero end-zone trips on the year after scoring seven times as a 2018 rookie. Fellow slot WRs Randall Cobb (4/115/1), LKarry Fitzgerald (8/113/1), Keenan Allen (8/98/0), Golden Tate (8/85/0), Hunter Renfrow (6/54/1), Nelson Agholor (8/50/2), and Bisi Johnson (4/40/1) have paid dividends against the Lions’ slot coverage. … This was the Bears’ full Week 12 routes-run distribution: Robinson 41; Braunecker 31; Gabriel 29; Miller 27; Cohen 26; Montgomery 22; Wims 17; J.P. Holtz 8; Patterson 5; Jesper Horsted 4. … If Braunecker (concussion) sits against the Lions, the Bears will resort to some combination of blocker Holtz and UDFA rookie Horsted, a catch-first tight end who dominated at Princeton. Horsted played four snaps in his Week 12 debut after being signed off the practice squad.
Jeff Driskel will try to gut out hamstring tightness on a short week after his season-worst game against the Redskins, absorbing six sacks and throwing three picks with a fumble. Browns 2019 camp arm David Blough is next in line should Driskel suffer a setback. Even as the Bears’ D/ST has been among this year’s biggest fantasy disappointments, this looks like a great spot to stream them. Just 1-of-11 quarterbacks to face the Bears has tallied top-12 fantasy results, while DC Chuck Pagano’s defense has yielded the NFL’s eighth-fewest QB rushing yards (11.7 per game). The Bears will gain a major advantage if either Pagano’s scheme or the hamstring injury confines Driskel to the pocket, removing his athletic strengths. … Although Bo Scarbrough’s passing-game role remains nonexistent, he has clearly emerged as Detroit’s early-down workhorse with 153 tackle-breaking yards and a touchdown on 32 carries over the past two weeks, playing exactly 50% of the Lions’ offensive snaps. While Scarbrough’s floor is low with zero catches, his Thanksgiving matchup is favorable against a Bears run defense missing DT Akiem Hicks (elbow, I.R.) and ILB Danny Trevathan (elbow). J.D. McKissic’s touch counts during Scarbrough’s two-game hot run are 6 and 3; Ty Johnson’s are 3 and 6. The bad news is Scarbrough remains a touchdown-or-bust flex option. The good news is Chicago has allowed nine rushing TDs over its last seven games.
Driskel’s 2019 target distribution: Marvin Jones 22; Kenny Golladay 18; Danny Amendola 16; McKissic 13; T.J. Hockenson 10; Logan Thomas 5; Johnson 4; Marvin Hall 3; Jesse James 2. … Jones leads the Lions in targets and Air Yards (284) over Golladay (216) in Driskel’s three starts yet remains priced considerably cheaper than Golladay on DFS sites. Facing a Bears defense allowing the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, Jones and Golladay are both boom-bust WR3s amid wayward quarterback play. … Amendola’s stat lines in Driskel’s starts are 4/29/0 > 4/47/0 > 3/21/0. Amendola is scoreless since Week 1, unsurprising since he’s drawn just two targets inside the ten-yard line all year. Golladay has drawn ten, Jones seven. … Hockenson has six yards on four targets over the last two weeks and played a season-low 44% of Detroit’s offensive snaps in Week 12. Hockenson did run 31 pass routes, tied for his third most of the year. The Bears have allowed the NFL’s fifth-most catches (64) and sixth-most yards (661) to tight ends, giving Hockenson some long-shot Thanksgiving-only DFS-tournament hope. Considering Hockenson’s utter lack of recent productivity, he seems certain to go low owned.
Score Prediction: Bears 24, Lions 17