Last updated: November 12th at 5:38pm ET.
Team Totals: Bills 22.5, Dolphins 17.5
It took two rushing TDs, but Josh Allen finally turned in a ceiling game in last week’s loss to Cleveland with Week 10’s fantasy QB6 score. Allen now visits Miami as a consistent high-floor play with top-16 outcomes in 8-of-8 full games and three top-ten finishes on the year. While Allen warrants season-long QB1 treatment and DFS consideration, the Dolphins’ D/ST is also suddenly in streamer play coming off consecutive top-eight results and facing erratic Allen at home in one of Week 11’s lowest-projected-scoring affairs. … Even as Devin Singletary’s box-score results disappointed against the Browns, his usage did not with a season-high seven targets, 68% snap rate to Frank Gore’s 32%, and 11 touches to Gore’s 6. Over the past three weeks, Singletary has run 45 routes to Gore’s 20. While Singletary has clearly grabbed Buffalo’s backfield reins, one small Week 11 concern is the revenge-game nature of Sunday’s contest with Gore facing his old team in Gore’s hometown. Nevertheless, Singletary has earned every-week RB2 treatment against a Dolphins defense running backs have touched up for 250/1,185/6 (4.74 YPC) rushing and ten all-purpose TDs in nine games. Singletary also happens to be popping as Week 11’s lone running back in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low Air Yards Model. For season-long leaguers in severe bye-week binds, Gore is flex usable in hopes the revenge narrative merits him an additional goal-line carry or two.
Allen’s 2019 target distribution: John Brown 66; Cole Beasley 56; Dawson Knox 30; Singletary 23; Isaiah McKenzie 15; Gore and T.J. Yeldon 9; Duke Williams 7; Robert Foster 6; Tyler Kroft 5. … Much like his quarterback, Brown has continued to lack ceiling games but delivered week-over-week consistency. Week 11’s matchup does offer Brown spiked-week potential; Miami has yielded the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and tenth-most to quarterbacks, favoring Allen-to-Brown DFS-tournament stacks. … With 40-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 8-of-9 games, Beasley remains a PPR-specific every-week WR3 whose outlook is enhanced by Sunday’s matchup. Buffalo’s narrow target distribution has buoyed Beasley’s weekly floor. … Knox has maintained the Bills’ primary tight end role since Kroft’s return, but Kroft’s game-day participation has been enough to cut into Knox’s fantasy viability. As Kroft siphoned 18 routes and 43% of the snaps in Buffalo’s Week 10 loss, Knox was fortunate to emerge with season highs in targets (6) and catches (4) at Cleveland. The good news is Dolphins opponents are 47-of-67 passing (70%) for 553 yards (8.3 YPA) when targeting tight ends. The bad news is Knox’s floor is lowered by his rotational usage and Buffalo’s limited passing-game pie.
Even as Brian Flores’ Dolphins have begun to play better, 9-of-9 DSTs to face Miami have banked top-12 fantasy scores, which should place Buffalo nearly atop Week 11’s defensive rankings. This is a low-floor, high-risk matchup for Ryan Fitzpatrick; 8-of-9 passers to face the Bills have finished with fantasy results of QB13 or worse, while Sean McDermott’s team is allowing the NFL’s third-fewest raw points per game (16.7). Understanding the pass-friendly nature of league rules, Buffalo has shown its willingness to concede running-game production by playing fewer than eight box defenders on 99% of their defensive snaps. This simply isn’t a defense you want to start fantasy quarterbacks against. … Predictably ineffective, Kalen Ballage pathetically turned 24 touches into just 45 scoreless yards in Week 10’s win over the Colts with Patrick Laird (four touches) and Myles Gaskin (one touch) a distant next in line. The good news is Buffalo intentionally plays soft run defense; McDermott’s team has yielded 4.76 yards per carry and nine TDs in nine games to enemy backs. The bad news is optimism is tough to come by for the individual characters that make up Miami’s post-Kenyan Drake and post-Mark Walton backfield.
Fitzpatrick’s 2019 target distribution: DeVante Parker 46; Mike Gesicki 27; Allen Hurns 16; Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson 15; Ballage 12; Laird 2. … Parker might be the most-underrated player in all of fantasy, but his Week 11 matchup couldn’t get tougher against lockdown Bills CB Tre’Davious White, who held Odell Beckham to 57 scoreless yards on 12 targets last week and last allowed a touchdown pass in Week 14 of the 2018 season. Parker is a low-floor WR3 play versus Buffalo. … Gesicki is a fade-matchup Week 11 option, ranking top five among NFL tight ends in Air Yards (144) over the last three weeks and drawing over five targets per game since Miami’s Week 5 bye. No tight end has cleared 50 yards against the Bills this year. … Fantasy investments into Dolphins pass catchers behind Parker and Gesicki haven’t been fun, but for long-shot seekers their routes run are relevant. Here’s how they went in Week 10: Parker 39; Hurns 37; Gesicki 29; Wilson 23; Durham Smythe 10; Grant 7; Clive Walford 5.
Score Prediction: Bills 23, Dolphins 13