L.A. Chargers @ Green Bay
Team Totals: Chargers 23.5, Packers 20.5
Fresh off torching the Lions for Week 10’s overall QB2 score, Justin Herbert visits a Packers team yielding the league’s third-fewest fantasy quarterback points and eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.1). Top WR Mike Williams (ACL) is long gone, while top target Keenan Allen (shoulder) is banged up. I’m taking the under on Herbert’s box-score projection in a Lambeau game in mid/late November but still starting Herbert confidently in season-long leagues. I like this game’s back-and-forth potential with Green Bay positioned for a possible breakthrough performance on offense. … Austin Ekeler banked year highs in playing time (69%), carries (19), and touches (23) in Week 10’s loss to Detroit, at the very least confirming injury concerns are behind him. Green Bay has allowed the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to enemy backs. … No. 2 RB Josh Kelley is averaging just five touches over the Chargers’ last three games.
Herbert’s 2023 target distribution: Allen 97; Ekeler 35; Quentin Johnston 28; Gerald Everett 27; Donald Parham 23; Derius Davis 11; Jalen Guyton 8. … Odds still favor Allen playing at Green Bay, and through 10 weeks he ranks No. 1 among NFL receivers in catches (73) and No. 4 in yards (895). On the backend, the Packers are missing top CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder), No. 2 CB Eric Stokes (knee/ankle), FS Darnell Savage (calf), and SS Rudy Ford (biceps).
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