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Last updated: November 7th at 7:45am ET

 

Team Totals: Chiefs 27, Titans 21

The Chiefs are tentatively expected to reinstall Patrick Mahomes (ankle) in Nashville after a full week of practice. On paper, Week 10’s matchup is imposing – Titans DC Dean Pees’ defense has permitted the NFL’s seventh-fewest points per game (18.3) and ranks bottom 12 in fantasy quarterback points allowed – but Tennessee is missing top DT Jurrell Casey (shoulder) and RCB Malcolm Butler (broken wrist) – and Mahomes is a matchup-proof talent, especially with his supporting cast at full speed. Tee up Mahomes as an obvious QB1 who may be lower owned than deserved in DFS tournaments. … LeSean McCoy’s ball-security woes and sluggish movement have propelled Damien Williams back to the forefront of Kansas City’s backfield; over the Chiefs’ last two games, Williams out-touched McCoy 21 to 17 and outgained him 158 to 72. In five quarters since McCoy’s Week 8 third-quarter lost fumble against the Packers, he’s been out-touched 21 to 4 by Williams, who put a Week 9 clown suit on Vikings S Harrison Smith for his 91-yard touchdown sprint. Matchups are irrelevant in Andy Reid’s backfields; all that matters is usage. Damien Williams’ usage has restored him into RB2 conversation. McCoy’s arrow is pointing downward.

Mahomes’ 2019 target distribution: Travis Kelce 52; Sammy Watkins 38; Demarcus Robinson 33; Mecole Hardman 29; Williams 17; McCoy 16; Byron Pringle 14; Darrel Williams and Tyreek Hill 12. … Even as Kelce hasn’t met pre-season expectations, only Austin Hooper has more raw PPR points among tight ends entering Week 10. This year’s Titans have permitted the NFL’s 12th-most yards to tight ends (453), a reminder that Kelce always warrants top-three TE1 treatment. … QB-proof Hill’s 16-game pace over his last four is 80/1,480/16 (18.5 YPR) with Matt Moore at the helm. Hill should destroy a Titans secondary unequipped to cover him even before losing CB Malcom Butler to a fractured wrist. … The Chiefs deploy Watkins as a low-aDOT possession receiver but his volume remains impossible to ignore with eight-plus targets in 5-of-6 appearances. Watkins is an upside WR3 whose ceiling will further rise should Mahomes start. … Robinson is indeed a role player who plays lots of snaps but does dirty work downfield. Andy Reid rarely designs plays to go in Robinson’s direction. … Same goes for explosive gadget man Hardman, yet Hardman plays far less than Robinson and will play less with Watkins back.

Fresh off a two-touchdown game that included season highs in routes run (21) and targets (3) against Carolina, Derrick Henry returns home for a softer draw versus K.C., which enemy backs have trucked for 223/1,057/6 (4.74 YPC) rushing and the NFL’s second-most receiving yards (568). Henry’s workloads are always secure with 16-plus touches in 9-of-9 weeks, while the mere possibility of him commanding more passing-game work bodes positively for Henry’s floor and ceiling. … Comeback script against Carolina translated to a season-high nine touches for Dion Lewis, who remains more of a Henry handcuff than standalone flex play. … Even in his worst game as a Titan, college WR Ryan Tannehill put his athleticism to use for a 4/38/1 rushing line and emerged with his third straight top-12 fantasy score against the Panthers. 6-of-9 quarterbacks to face K.C. have delivered top-12 outcomes, while Mahomes’ return would enhance Tannehill’s outlook by increasing this game’s shootout probability. The Chiefs have been unable to create pressure under first-year DC Steve Spagnuolo, ranking 20th in QB Hit Rate (14.6%). Tannehill ranks No. 8 among 36 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating on clean-pocket throws (115.0).

Tannehill’s 2019 target distribution: Corey Davis 22; A.J. Brown 20; Adam Humphries 18; Jonnu Smith 16; Tajae Sharpe 10; Lewis 9; Anthony Firkser 8; Henry 5; Delanie Walker 2. … Davis’ receiving lines in Tannehill’s three starts are 4/48/0 > 2/9/0 > 6/80/1, unsurprisingly uneven on a run-first team where no individual pass catcher is proactively featured. Since Davis (hip) barely practiced this week, Brown’s box-score expectation rose with an outside shot at double-digit targets should Davis sit. … Brown is the NFL’s No. 2 rookie receiver in yards per route run (2.04) behind only Marquise Brown (2.29). If Davis doesn’t play, Brown’s WR3/flex usability would rise significantly. I personally would even increase Brown into WR2 range, especially if Mahomes starts to enhance this game’s shootout potential. … Humphries is scoreless through nine weeks as a rotational receiver. He’s topped 65 yards in 1-of-9 games. … Walker (ankle) appears likely to miss another week, setting up Smith for TE1 streamer usability after Jonnu ran a year-high 31 routes in last Sunday’s loss to Carolina. Smith is a respectable Week 10 streamer against the Chiefs, who’ve allowed the NFL’s seventh-most receiving yards (523) to opposing tight ends.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 28, Titans 23