Last updated: December 3rd at 8:59pm ET.
Team Totals: Jets 24.5, Dolphins 19.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick encounters a revenge game at The Meadowlands, where he quarterbacked the Jets in 2015-16 and ethered Gang Green for Week 9’s QB6 result this Week 9. Fitz has top-eight QB1 scores in four of his last eight starts, while Miami’s inability to run the ball places Fitzpatrick in lucrative pass-funnel spots. With star Jets SS Jamal Adams (ankle) and underrated slot CB Brian Poole (concussion) in danger of missing, Fitzpatrick is an enticing DFS-tournament play in stacks with white-hot DeVante Parker and/or Mike Gesicki. … Due to Kalen Ballage’s ineffectiveness and Week 13 leg injury, 2019 UDFA rookie Patrick Laird projects as Miami’s lead back against the Jets after handling 14 touches on 59% of last week’s offensive snaps. Seventh-round afterthought Myles Gaskin (3, 23%) operated as Laird’s lightly-used caddie. Although New York’s run defense is stoutest in the league – holding enemy backs to a combined 256/759/9 (2.96 YPC) rushing line on the year – Gang Green has yielded the NFL’s third-most running back catches (76), which feeds into the strengths of Laird’s playing style. Laird caught 96 balls over his final two college seasons as a sometimes-tailback, sometimes-wide receiver at Cal.
Fitzpatrick’s 2019 target distribution: Parker 77; Gesicki 47; Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson 33; Ballage 20; Laird 14; Durham Smythe 6; Gaskin 4. … Repeatedly named in this space as fantasy football’s most underrated player, Parker reproved it in last week’s outcome tilter (7/159/2) and is again positioned to impact Week 14’s slate. In four games since Preston Williams’ Week 9 ACL tear, Parker ranks third in the NFL in Air Yards (500), fourth in targets (41), and first in actual receiving yards (454), while the Jets have allowed the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to wideouts. … Gesicki has drawn six-plus targets in five straight games and creamed the Jets for 6/95/0 receiving when these teams met in Week 9. No. 2 among tight ends in Air Yards (311) behind only Travis Kelce (334) over the past five weeks, Gesicki is an upside TE1 facing off with Gang Green. … Hurns and Wilson continue to share complementary snaps as Miami’s Nos. 2 and 3 wide receivers, emerging as deep-league WR4 options on 4-6 target projections.
Embarrassed by the previously-winless Bengals last week, the Jets return home for a get-right spot versus the Dolphins, who’ve permitted top-12 QB1 scores in 8-of-12 games. Only three teams are giving up more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than Miami, which Josh Allen (QB1), Baker Mayfield (QB6), and Carson Wentz (QB8) all flamed consecutively in Weeks 11-13. A top-eight fantasy passer in three of his last four starts with just two turnovers since Week 8, Sam Darnold is worth going right back to as a QB1 streamer in Week 14. … Le’Veon Bell’s 14 touches versus Cincy were entirely nonsensical considering his plus matchup with the Bengals’ near-nonexistent linebacker corps and Bell’s 85% playing-time clip, his highest since Week 9. Bell is worth betting on continually based on his usage and Sunday’s matchup with the Dolphins, who allow the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.
Darnold’s 2019 target distribution: Jamison Crowder 71; Robby Anderson 54; Demaryius Thomas 43; Bell 39; Ryan Griffin 37; Vyncint Smith 15; Bilal Powell 7; Braxton Berrios 4. … Crowder set a season high in Week 13 routes run (53) against the Bengals but uncharacteristically dropped three balls and finished with eight yards. Averaging 7.2 targets over Darnold’s last five starts, Crowder is worth sticking with as a volume-driven WR3 play against Miami. The Dolphins have allowed nine TDs on 97 slot targets this year; Crowder runs 75% of his routes inside. He’s also popping in Week 14’s Buy Low Air Yards Model. … Anderson is catching late-season fire as Gang Green’s dominant deep threat, ranking top 15 among NFL wideouts in Air Yards (318) over the past three weeks and commanding a year-high ten targets in Week 13’s loss to Cincinnati. The Dolphins have yielded the NFL’s fourth-most 20-plus-yard completions (51), benefiting big-play-threat Anderson. … Thomas is a touchdown-or-bust WR4 who hasn’t hit pay dirt all year and has drawn zero targets inside the ten-yard line. … Griffin reasserted himself as an enormous part of Adam Gase’s offense in Week 13, commanding seven targets against the Bengals. Griffin’s 42 routes run were his most since Week 1. This is another plus draw for Griffin against the Dolphins, who’ve allowed the NFL’s sixth-most yards to tight ends (709).
Score Prediction: Jets 24, Dolphins 23