Last updated: December 12th at 10:15pm ET
Team Totals: Eagles 22, Redskins 18
This sets up as a potential trap game for Philly’s offense in D.C. without monumental difference-maker RT Lane Johnson (high ankle sprain), top WR Alshon Jeffery (Lisfranc), and probably slot WR Nelson Agholor (knee) against an underrated Redskins defense that held its last three opponents to point totals of 20, 21, and 16. Just 3 of the last 11 quarterbacks to face Washington banked top-12 fantasy scores, while Carson Wentz has two top-12 outcomes in his last seven starts. He’s firmly on the QB1 fringe. … Jordan Howard’s (shoulder) return would throw a wrench into all of this – he practiced on a limited basis all week yet has not been medically cleared – but Boston Scott played his way onto the fantasy radar by exploding for 128 yards and a touchdown on 16 touches in last Monday night’s win over the Giants. Scott captured the “hot hand” when Miles Sanders left with cramps, never relinquished it, and is minimum priced on Draft Kings this week. As enemy backs are averaging 159.7 total yards per game against Washington, there is room for Sanders to deliver RB2 results and Scott to pay flex dividends in the same backfield. … Sanders still paced the Eagles in Week 14 touches (19), out-snapped Scott 50 to 38, and was Doug Pederson’s preferred goal-line option in crunch time against the Giants. Averaging 16.4 touches over the Eagles’ last five games, Sanders will remain RB2 playable if Howard can’t go.
The continued disintegration of Philly’s wideout corps has locked Zach Ertz into extreme-volume usage with double-digit targets in four of his last five games and a sparkling 80.6-yard average during that span. The Skins have allowed the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. Ertz is Week 15’s No. 1 overall fantasy tight end play. … The Eagles’ wide receiver losses should preserve Dallas Goedert’s near every-down usage in this plus draw. Averaging nearly seven targets per game over his last four, Goedert is a fringe TE1 at Washington. … Should Agholor sit out again, the Eagles’ two wide receivers likeliest to see the most playing time are ex-AAF slot man Greg Ward and rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Whereas Arcega-Whiteside’s target totals in his four starts are 4 > 3 > 5 > 3, Wentz showed an actual affinity for throwing to Ward with nine targets in last Monday night’s win over the Giants, including three in the end zone. Ward is a PPR-specific WR4 option. Arcega-Whiteside offers far more theoretical upside but has given us no reason to believe he will realize it during a mostly-invisible rookie season.
Regardless of matchups, opposing D/STs continue to be better fantasy bets than ultra-raw Redskins rookie Dwayne Haskins, who is up to 22 sacks absorbed through five NFL starts and a 3:8 touchdown-to-turnover ratio with five fumbles on the year. Haskins’ five individual fantasy finishes are a repugnant QB27 > QB14 > QB25 > QB33 > QB32. 4-of-5 defenses to face him have banked top-12 fantasy results. Haskins is also battling an ankle sprain, further enhancing Philly’s defensive outlook. … Washington’s talent-poor offense lost even more when short-term phenom Derrius Guice suffered a year-ending MCL sprain in last week’s loss to Green Bay, restoring Adrian Peterson to lead-back duties with Chris Thompson and Wendell Smallwood behind him. The good news for Peterson is he has a legit shot at 20 touches in Guice’s absence. The bad news is Peterson seems likely to run in place against the run-stuffing Eagles, who’ve held enemy backs to 3.62 yards per carry. Peterson is a low-floor, touchdown-or-bust option with just six receptions since Week 6. … Coming off a seven-catch game at Lambeau, Thompson led Washington in Week 14 targets (8) and is arguably just as PPR viable as Peterson.
Haskins’ 2019 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 34; Kelvin Harmon 25; Steven Sims 18; Jeremy Sprinkle 14; Thompson 13; Paul Richardson and Trey Quinn 11; Peterson and Smallwood 7; Guice 6. … Coming off last week’s 4/57/1 receiving line at Lambeau highlighted by one of the niftiest one-handed touchdown grabs of the year, McLaurin will try to do his best Darius Slayton impression after Slayton eviscerated Philly’s secondary (5/154/2) last Monday night. Nine different wideouts have topped 100 yards against the Eagles in 13 games, including McLaurin himself (5/125/1) all the way back in Week 1. McLaurin’s floor is lowered by Haskins’ quarterbacking, but he checks boxes for talent, matchup, and opportunity as a high-ceiling season-long WR3 play with enough upside for DFS consideration. It can only help that McLaurin is popping in Week 15’s Air Yards Buy Low Model. … Rookie possession WR Harmon and special teams dynamo Sims round out the Redskins’ three-receiver sets with Quinn demoted and Richardson (hamstring) forever on the shelf. … Sprinkle has 98 yards and a score to show for his 14 targets from Haskins. Sprinkle didn’t draw a single target on 32 pass routes last week.
Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Redskins 17