Last updated: November 14th at 6:45pm ET
Team Totals: Colts 23.5, Jaguars 20.5
The Jaguars return from their bye with Nick Foles reinstalled at quarterback for a critical division game at Lucas Oil Stadium to face Indianapolis’ smothering zone coverage, which has held enemy passers to the NFL’s ninth-fewest fantasy points per game. A high-variance passer with a lengthy track record of high highs but low lows, Foles is a poor Week 11 fantasy bet considering his matchup and probable rust after a nearly three-month layoff. Foles’ passing-game strength is downfield aggressiveness, yet Colts DC Matt Eberflus’ defense has allowed the NFL’s eighth-fewest completions of 20-plus yards (26). Only two-QB-league playable in his first game back, Foles should become a streaming factor down the line. The Jags face the Bucs, Raiders, and Falcons before Week 17. … Fresh legged off Week 10’s bye, Leonard Fournette will serve as Jacksonville’s offensive engine against Indy’s lightweight defensive front, which has surrendered a middling 181/736/3 (4.07 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs. With 20-plus touches in six of his last seven games, Fournette’s RB1 stock is indisputable despite poor to-date touchdown luck. In all likelihood, positive-TD regression will soon smack Fournette in the mouth with a multi-score week.
Jacksonville comes off its open date with its passing game nearly at full strength. Dede Westbrook draws its best Week 11 on-paper matchup against a Colts zone willing to concede catches in the slot, where its opponents are a combined 52-of-67 passing (78%). A passable PPR-specific WR3 option, Westbrook’s big plays should rise going from Gardner Minshew to more-aggressive Foles. … Since target and “chemistry” data is limited by Foles’ Week 1 injury, D.J. Chark and Chris Conley’s outlooks are up in the air until we get some tangible results to work with. Foles did connect twice with Chark in Week 1 for 42 yards and a touchdown. Chark’s big-play ability and voluminous Air Yards role keep him firmly in WR3 contention with WR2 upside despite this week’s unideal matchup. … Conley spent time with Foles in Kansas City and is worth rostering as a WR4/5 in season-long leagues with big-play ability in an offense now quarterbacked by a big-play passer. … Rookie TE Josh Oliver set season highs in playing time (46%) and routes run (29) in Jacksonville’s pre-bye London loss to Houston, while Seth DeValve (52%, 25) parlayed five targets into a year-best 4/41/0 receiving line. For now, this looks to be a near-even timeshare with some potential for one of the Jags’ tight ends to emerge as a stretch-run streamer.
Jacoby Brissett (knee) will return following Brian Hoyer’s abominable display against the Dolphins, a big lift for the Colts but not necessarily exciting in fantasy. Passing-game difference maker T.Y. Hilton (calf) still isn’t back, and Jacksonville’s run-funnel defense has surrendered just 13 touchdown passes in nine games. Only three of the last eight quarterbacks to face the Jags have top-18 fantasy scores, while DC Todd Wash’s rested defensive front ranks top five in sack rate (9%) and top two in QB Hit Rate (19.2%). At best, Brissett is a two-quarterback-league play. … Much weaker in run defense, the Jaguars have been tagged by enemy backs for 179/894/6 (4.99 YPC) rushing, setting up Marlon Mack to bust his two-game slump. Mack’s lack of passing-game usage continues to frustrate, but he’s handled 20-plus touches in 7-of-9 games and is positioned for RB1/2 production as a home-favorite feature back in a favorable draw.
Injuries have removed virtually all rhythm, rhyme, and continuity from Indy’s passing game, which is already limited by Frank Reich’s balanced to run-first approach. So let’s try to establish an opportunity foundation. This is how Week 10 routes were distributed among all Colts pass catchers: Zach Pascal 41; Marcus Johnson 36; Eric Ebron 33; Jack Doyle 22; Chester Rogers 18. … Even as a dud in last week’s loss to Miami, Pascal maintained No. 1 wideout status via his routes run, playing time (99%), targets (7), and Air Yards (85), which led all Colts wide receivers. Before Brissett went down, Pascal had tallied 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four of his previous six games. He’s the Colts’ lone fantasy-viable wideout versus Jacksonville. … Johnson’s Week 10 involvement is a testament to Indianapolis’ wide receiver darkness. Promoted off the practice squad the day before last week’s game, Johnson operated as the Colts’ No. 2 behind Pascal, played 80% of the offensive snaps, and managed nine yards on three targets. … Ebron’s pre-Week 10 closed-doors meeting with Reich apparently paid off. Ebron led the Colts in targets (12) and Air Yards (134) on season highs in snaps (61%) and routes run (33), only to have a first-drive would-be touchdown torn out of his hands and finish with 56 scoreless yards. Nevertheless, Ebron is positioned to rebound based on his extreme opportunity as an upside TE1. The Colts need Ebron’s production more than ever due to their wide receiver dearth, while teams are 33-of-51 passing for 393 yards (7.71 YPC) and five touchdowns when targeting tight ends against the Jaguars. … Doyle has a stable role in the Colts’ offense but lacks any hint of fantasy upside week to week, especially with Ebron now needing to be featured and Doyle to help block Jacksonville’s nasty front. … Devin Funchess is eligible for Week 11 activation, but he indicated Thursday his broken collarbone still hasn’t healed.
Score Prediction: Colts 21, Jaguars 20