Last updated: December 12th at 12:45pm ET
Team Totals: Raiders 26, Jaguars 19.5
Unthinkably blown out in five straight games with an abominable -117 point differential during that span, the sunk-ship Jaguars travel all the way across country for Week 15’s date with the nosediving Raiders. Even as Gardner Minshew’s matchup on paper is about as good as it gets – only Arizona allows more fantasy points to quarterbacks than Oakland – Minshew is a mere two-QB-league play without a fantasy score above QB22 since Week 8 on a melting team missing top WR D.J. Chark (ankle). … Leonard Fournette’s Week 14 clunker largely resulted from negative game script in Jacksonville’s 45-10 loss to the Chargers. He still finished with 18 or more touches for the tenth time in 13 games and catches a plus Week 15 on-paper draw against the Raiders, who enemy backs tagged for 136/588/6 (4.32 YPC) rushing over the past six weeks and the NFL’s fourth-most receiving yards per game (50.1) over the course of the year. Third among all running backs in catches (68) behind only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler, Fournette’s floor is raised by his enormous passing-game role. He’s a locked-in, every-week RB1 play.
Chark’s absence frees up a ton of opportunity; he’s No. 13 in the NFL in Air Yards (1,262), and only 14 wide receivers have more targets than Chark’s 106. The Jaguars’ Week 15 three-receiver package should consist of Chris Conley and Keelan Cole outside with Dede Westbrook in the slot, and all are appealing sleepers relative to format. Priced affordably on DFS sites, Conley is popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low Air Yards Model and is best equipped from a skill-set standpoint to exploit the Raiders’ easy-to-beat perimeter coverage, where DC Paul Guenther’s unit has yielded league highs in 20-plus-yard pass plays (63) and 40-plus-yard completions (15) and was pillaged by A.J. Brown (5/153/2) last week. … Cole has been efficient as the Jags’ No. 4 receiver, collecting 17-of-23 targets for 195 yards and two scores. He’s worth a long look as a DFS punt play in a plus draw with spiked opportunity. Cole should be on the field for over 80% of the Jags’ offensive plays. … Westbrook is the Jaguars’ highest-floor wideout with five-plus catches in 8-of-12 appearances. Westbrook runs the vast majority of his routes inside, where PFF has charted only three slot corners with more yards allowed than Raiders CB Lamarcus Joyner (417). … Nick O’Leary is an under-the-radar streamer playing nearly 70% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps over the past two weeks. He’s drawn at least four targets in three straight games and tagged the Chargers for 4/30/1 receiving last Sunday. The Raiders allow the NFL’s second-most fantasy points to tight ends.
In what’s sure to be a rowdy atmosphere for the last game ever played in Oakland’s Black Hole – the Raiders are moving to Las Vegas next year, in case you hadn’t heard – this sets up as a full-throttle Josh Jacobs affair facing a Jaguars “defense” enemy running backs have gutted for 128/824/8 (6.44 YPC) rushing over the past five weeks. As Oakland is favored by nearly a touchdown at home, it’s noteworthy that Jacobs’ per-game touches spike from 16.3 in losses to 23.0 in wins, and Jacobs has scored all seven of his touchdowns at home this year. Beyond his chronic shoulder problems, Jacobs checks most boxes as an upside RB1 play. … Derek Carr enters Week 15 with top-12 fantasy scores in just 3-of-13 starts, offering little more than a confident two-quarterback-league asset in a talent-poor passing game.
Carr’s Weeks 13-14 target distribution: Darren Waller 15; DeAndre Washington 10; Tyrell Williams 8; Zay Jones 6; Jalen Richard 5; Keelan Doss and Foster Moreau 4; Derek Carrier and Alec Ingold 2; Rico Gafford 1. … Allowing the NFL’s 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, the Jaguars coughed up a combined 3/53/2 stat line on five targets to Chargers tight ends last week and 5/61/1 receiving on six targets to once-dead O.J. Howard the week before. Scoreless in six straight, Waller is due for positive-TD regression, and his scoring chances are aided by Moreau’s year-ending knee injury; Moreau vultured five end-zone trips in the first 13 games. … Williams is scoreless since Week 8 and has cleared 50 yards once in his ensuing six contests. Still the favorite for Raiders vertical targets, Williams’ matchup is favorable enough for WR3/flex consideration. Only six NFL teams have allowed more 20-plus-yard completions than the Jaguars (49), who got fellow touchdown-slumping WR Mike Williams off the schneid last week.
Score Prediction: Raiders 24, Jaguars 17