Last updated: November 14th at 3:58pm ET.
Team Totals: Redskins 20, Jets 19
Sam Darnold busted his three-game slump somewhat in last Sunday’s shootout win over the Giants, tallying his second-highest yards per attempt (7.7) and passer rating (97.9) of the season en route to Week 10’s QB7 result. As Washington ranks bottom ten in sacks (21) and bottom three in QB hits (41), Darnold should see fewer ghosts than usual in D.C. Darnold’s supporting cast and to-date performance don’t warrant confident QB1 treatment, but he’s a passable streamer in season-long leagues. … After toughing out his knee ailment to exceed 20 touches for the second straight game, Le’Veon Bell catches a Redskins defense that has allowed the NFL’s seventh-most running back catches (55) and a whopping 33.7 touches per game to enemy backs, setting up Le’Veon for another high-volume effort. Bell is averaging 4.9 receptions per game, settling in as a low-end RB1 whose main obstacle is his own offense.
Darnold’s 2019 target distribution: Jamison Crowder 51; Robby Anderson 36; Le’Veon 32; Demaryius Thomas 30; Ryan Griffin 22; Ty Montgomery 4; Chris Herndon 2. … Darnold’s most-trusted weapon, Crowder has logged consecutive stat lines of 8/83/1 and 5/81/1 and now encounters a Skins secondary that’s coughed up 51 catches on 60 slot targets (85%) for 531 yards (8.85 YPA) and four TDs. Crowder runs 74% of his routes inside. This is a revenge game for Crowder, who spent his first four NFL seasons in Washington. … Anderson has been among fantasy’s most frustrating receivers with fewer than 45 yards in 7-of-9 games. As fellow burner WRs DeSean Jackson (8/154/2), Stefon Diggs (7/143/0), John Brown (4/76/0), Taylor Gabriel (6/75/3), Devin Smith (3/74/1), Amari Cooper (4/44/1), and DeVante Parker (3/28/1) have all met or beaten expectations against Washington, Anderson remains a tempting if low-floor WR3/flex. … Thomas has emerged as a legitimate possession-receiver factor for the Jets but remains scoreless on the year and has cleared 65 yards once in seven appearances. Even against the Skins, Thomas is a low-ceiling WR4. … Herndon is out indefinitely with broken ribs, thrusting Griffin back into Gang Green’s full-time tight end role. Playing 94% of Gang Green’s Weeks 8-9 offensive snaps, Griffin turned 12 targets into a combined 10/116/2 receiving line against the Jaguars and Dolphins. As a full-time player in a favorable spot, Griffin warrants legitimate Week 11 streamer consideration in D.C.
Back from Week 10’s bye with their season already down the drain, the Skins will trot back out unready Dwayne Haskins after he failed to lead a single touchdown drive and took four sacks on 26 dropbacks in Washington’s pre-bye loss to Buffalo. Even as the Jets offer a friendlier matchup, DC Gregg Williams will certainly design blitz schemes to confuse the Redskins’ wide-eyed rookie. The Jets’ D/ST is a better one-for-one play than Haskins, who is at best a desperation two-QB-league option. … Derrius Guice’s (knee) return from I.R. muddles Washington’s backfield with Chris Thompson hogging passing-down work and Adrian Peterson having earned a committee role at worst with averages of 112.5 yards from scrimmage and 5.11 yards per carry over the Redskins’ past four games. It doesn’t help that Williams’ defense has stymied enemy backs for 201/605/8 rushing (3.01 YPC). This backfield looks like a full-on Week 11 fade.
Update: On Thursday, coach Bill Callahan indeed announced he plans to start Adrian Peterson over Derrius Guice going forward.
Haskins’ 2019 target distribution: Paul Richardson 9; Terry McLaurin 7; Trey Quinn and Jeremy Sprinkle 5; Kelvin Harmon 4; Thompson, A.P., and Wendell Smallwood 3; Vernon Davis 2. … Even as Haskins’ most-targeted player in a plus draw, Richardson is always tough to back beyond desperate bye-week WR4 scenarios with a measly 47/501/4 receiving line through 16 games as a Redskin. … As college teammates, McLaurin’s multi-year rapport with Haskins should eventually reveal itself in weekly box scores. This is a great opportunity to start against a flammable Jets secondary that got cooked by fellow perimeter WRs Darius Slayton (10/121/2), Chris Conley (4/103/1), D.J. Chark (6/79/1), Preston Williams (5/72/2), DeVante Parker (4/57/1), and Phillip Dorsett (3/46/1) in its last four games. While his floor is never safe, McLaurin’s ceiling is sky high based on his talent and optimal Week 11 draw. Also popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Buy Low Model, McLaurin is an exciting DFS-tournament play sure to attract low ownership. … Held under 40 yards in all nine games, Quinn’s usage has trended downward over the course of the year. … Sprinkle is scoreless on the season without a single 25-yard game, while 35-year-old Davis has been sidelined since Week 4 with a concussion.
Score Prediction: Jets 23, Redskins 17