Last updated: November 29th at 8:15am ET
Team Totals: Packers 26, Giants 19.5
Coming off last Sunday night’s 37-8 clobbering by San Francisco, the Packers encounter a get-right spot against a Giants defense that’s allowed top-ten fantasy results to seven straight quarterbacks faced while stiffening against the run to create a pass funnel. The G-Men acquired DT Leonard Williams from the Jets to team with first-round DT Dexter Lawrence three games ago, and over their last two stymied enemy backs for 44/96/1 (2.18 YPC) rushing. This bodes positively for bum-beater Aaron Rodgers, who has delivered top-three fantasy weeks against the early-season Eagles, Raiders, and Chiefs but finished QB12 or worse in each of his other eight starts. … Although Jamaal Williams performed adequately on increased post-bye Week 12 usage against the 49ers, coach Matt LaFleur emerged from the loss stating Aaron Jones needed more work. Jones did out-snap Williams 41 to 38, but Williams got the ball 18 times to Jones’ 13 and out-targeted Jones 8 to 1. While New York’s run-defense improvement is noteworthy and this remains a near-even committee, I like Jones’ chances of retaking the Packers’ touch lead as an upside RB2 at the G-Men. Williams remains in flex contention with 31 touches over his last two games.
Rodgers’ Weeks 10-12 target distribution: Davante Adams 22; Williams 9; Allen Lazard 7; Geronimo Allison 7; Jimmy Graham 5; Marquez Valdes-Scantling 4; Jake Kumerow 2. … Adams’ phenomenal play combined with Rodgers’ bum-beating tendencies and Sunday’s matchup magnify Adams-to-Rodgers as one of Week 13’s most-compelling DFS stacks. Adams has seven-plus catches in five of his last six games, double-digit targets in four straight, and ranks No. 5 among 90 qualified wide receivers in PFF’s yards per route run (2.43), year over year one of the best metrics to pinpoint pass-catcher quality. Only the Bucs have given up more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Giants, who were creamed by outside WRs Allen Robinson (6/131/1), Kenny Golladay (6/123/2), Demaryius Thomas (6/84/0), Amari Cooper (4/80/1), and Michael Gallup (2/33/1) in their last four games. Adams runs 73% of his routes outside. … The rest of Green Bay’s pass catchers have reached the point of unplayability. Allison hasn’t topped 52 yards all year. Lazard has fewer than 50 yards in five straight games. MVS has been demoted to Green Bay’s No. 4 receiver. … Graham is the Packers’ one ancillary pass catcher at which I might throw a Week 13 dart. Giants SS Jabrill Peppers (back) is out indefinitely, and Graham is still running TE1-level routes.
The depletion of Daniel Jones’ skill-position corps – we’ll get there soon – combined with Jones’ severe turnover propensity gives Green Bay’s otherwise-sputtering defense Week 13 streamer D/ST life. Jones is up to 17 turnovers in nine NFL starts, while the Giants have 21 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. Jones’ weapons shortage is also a blow to his individual upside. Six straight quarterbacks to face the Packers have logged fantasy results of QB12 or worse. … Saquon Barkley ranks dead last among 33 qualified backs in Football Outsiders’ rushing Success Rate, while Barkley has finished below 100 total yards in five of his last six games. Barkley (ankle) clearly isn’t 100%, but his workloads remain secure, and there’s a possibility Sunday’s plus draw could springboard him. Enemy backs have rocked Green Bay for a clean 5.00 yards per carry, 14 all-purpose TDs, and the NFL’s 11th-most running back catches (62). Still averaging 21 touches over his last five games and coming off a year-high 97% playing-time clip, volume and matchup are working vehemently in Barkley’s potential breakout-game favor.
Evan Engram (knee), Golden Tate (concussion), and Rhett Ellison’s (concussion) expected absences plus Bennie Fowler’s release delete players who’ve accounted for a whopping 45% of Jones’ rookie-year completions. They also position Sterling Shepard to return to the slot for volume-monster duties after drawing target counts of 9 and 9 and delivering 7/100/1 and 7/76/0 stat lines in Jones’ first two starts, before Tate came off suspension to supplant him in the slot. A locked-in season-long WR2, Shepard also belongs squarely on DFS crosshairs. … Same for Darius Slayton, who leads the Giants in Air Yards (733) and actual receiving yards (461) in Jones’ nine starts. Green Bay hasn’t been overly giving to wideouts – allowing the NFL’s ninth-fewest fantasy points to the position – but Slayton is primed for hiked volume, an appetizing proposition for New York’s big-play specialist. Green Bay’s secondary is vulnerable to big pass plays, having allowed the NFL’s seventh-most 20-plus-yard completions (43) and a league-high 13 completions of 40-plus. … Practice-squad callup Kaden Smith played a whopping 98% of last week’s offensive snaps, ran 41 routes, and drew six targets against the Bears. This week’s matchup is far more favorable; only the Cardinals and Bucs have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than Green Bay. Even as an underwhelming talent with 4.92 speed, Smith warrants opportunity- and matchup-based streamer recognition in Engram and Ellison’s absence and is available on most season-long waiver wires.
Score Prediction: Packers 27, Giants 24