Last updated: November 7th at 2:13pm ET.
Team Totals: Ravens 28, Bengals 18
With Russell Wilson visiting San Francisco and Deshaun Watson on bye, MVP candidate Lamar Jackson deserves to be Week 10’s top-projected fantasy quarterback against Cincinnati’s swiss-cheese defense, which Jackson melted for 388 all-purpose yards and Week 6’s QB2 finish. The Bengals have supported high fantasy floors by permitting top-16 quarterback results in seven straight games, including top-eight scores to Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Lamar himself. Jackson has been a top-ten QB1 in 7-of-8 starts. … Week 10 also sets up beautifully for Mark Ingram; Cincinnati has been pounded for 203/986/8 (4.86 YPC) rushing and 11 all-purpose TDs by enemy backs in eight games. Ingram’s light receiving usage and Gus Edwards’ consistent change-up role remain concerns for his ceiling, but this is one of the best matchups Ingram will get all year. He’s worth DFS team-stack discussion in a game where Baltimore should approach or exceed 30 points. … Albeit of the touchdown-dependent variety, Edwards is flex-play viable with an average of 7.2 touches over Baltimore’s last six games. 22% of Edwards touches have come in the red zone this season. Collectively, running backs facing Cincinnati are averaging 30.9 touches per game. This matchup sets up for Edwards to flirt with double-digit touches.
Jackson’s post-bye target distribution: Nick Boyle 5; Marquise Brown 4; Ingram and Mark Andrews 3; Willie Snead and Hayden Hurst 2; Justice Hill 1. … Boyle’s Week 9 role was pronounced due to the Ravens’ run-first approach and early lead versus New England, establishing year highs in snaps (84%) and targets and scoring his first touchdown in 56 NFL games. Boyle’s 5/27/1 stat line isn’t worth chasing into Week 10. … Brown unsurprisingly drew shadow coverage from Stephon Gilmore, even beating the NFL’s top corner twice on short-area targets for gains of 6 and 16. As the Bengals rank bottom two in sacks (9) and QB hits (26), this game sets up better for Brown to get open deep. Cincinnati has allowed the NFL’s fifth-most completions of 20-plus yards and an AFC-high 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Brown is an upside WR3 play in this plus draw. … Whereas Boyle benefited from Cincinnati’s game plan against the Patriots, Andrews suffered with season lows in routes run (14) and snaps (34%). Andrews shredded the Bengals (6/99/0) when these teams met in Week 6, while teams targeting tight ends against Cincy are averaging a whopping 9.94 yards per attempt. Brown and Andrews are both playable in DFS-tournament stacks with Jackson. Andrews also popped as Week 10’s No. 1 buy-low tight end in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Ravens ancillary pass catchers remain hands off in fantasy.
The Bengals decided during their Week 9 bye that playing fourth-round pick Ryan Finley made more sense than continuing to trot out purgatory passer Andy Dalton. Of the Brandon Weeden archetype, Finley turns 25 in December and probably isn’t Cincinnati’s long-term answer, but he did handle himself capably this preseason, completing 73.4% of his August passes with three touchdowns and one pick. Finley adds minimal mobility behind Cincinnati’s swinging-gate offensive line, however, and projects as a quarterback to aggressively stream defenses against. 7-of-8 DSTs to face the Bengals have logged top-15 fantasy results, including six top-12 finishes. … Even as Joe Mixon delivered his season-best fantasy game in Cincinnati’s pre-bye loss to the Rams (17.7 PPR points), Mixon managed an anemic 3.7 yards per touch and just barely played over half of the Bengals’ offensive snaps (53%). On an 0-8 team averaging 15.5 points per game and now installing a day-three rookie at quarterback, Mixon’s 2019 season continues to look like a lost cause. He’s a low-floor, low-ceiling RB2/flex option against the Ravens.
Update: I wrote these passages before Thursday, when A.J. Green (ankle) announced he would “probably not” play against the Ravens. In addition to nursing the ankle injury, Green is frustrated with his contract situation. Green was formally ruled out later in the day. The Bengals’ three-receiver package will remain comprised of Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, and Alex Erickson with upward-trending Tyler Eifert at tight end.
A.J. Green (ankle) is tentatively slated to make his 2019 debut against Baltimore’s full-deck secondary, which added Marcus Peters before the trade deadline and got back Jimmy Smith (knee) in last week’s win over New England. Green’s matchup is imposing and his rapport with Finley nonexistent. I’m putting him on a wait-and-see week in season-long leagues. … The frequent victim of early-season double teams with Cincinnati missing Green and John Ross (collarbone, I.R.), Tyler Boyd has a chance to benefit from AJG’s return. Fellow slot-type WRs Jarvis Landry (8/167/0), Christian Kirk (6/114/0), Larry Fitzgerald (5/104/0), Julian Edelman (10/89/0), Mohamed Sanu (10/81/1), JuJu Smith-Schuster (7/75/1), and Tyler Lockett (5/61/1) have scored big against Baltimore. Boyd is a volume-drive WR3 play in a game where the Bengals project to play from behind. It can’t hurt that Boyd popped as Week 10’s No. 2 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Auden Tate and Alex Erickson are the top candidates to round out Cincinnati’s three-wideout sets with Tate as the favorite but a rotation possible in Green’s first game back. Tate and Erickson are high-risk WR4 options with uncertain roles in Finley’s first career start. It does help Tate that he’s popping as Week 10’s No. 6 wideout in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low Air Yards Model. … Heavily rumored to be on the trade block, Tyler Eifert’s snaps (71%), routes run (43), targets (9), and production (6/74/0) suddenly spiked to season highs in Cincinnati’s pre-bye loss to the Rams. Before that, Eifert hadn’t topped 27 yards in a 2019 game. Speculation is the usage increase was implemented in an effort to “showcase” Eifert. Eifert should be added by season-long fantasy owners in tight end binds, but I’d like to see Eifert used like that at least once more before confidently teeing him up.
Score Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 17