Last updated: November 27th at 9:15am ET
Team Totals: Panthers 25, Redskins 15
The Redskins visit Carolina with fewer than 20 points in ten straight games quarterbacked by selfie-taking, late-game kneeldown-skipping rookie Dwayne Haskins, who’s absorbed 13 sacks in three starts and should be aggressively targeted by fantasy owners of Carolina’s D/ST. The Panthers rank No. 2 in sacks (41) and No. 5 in QB hits (77) and have held 8-of-11 quarterbacks faced to fantasy results of QB15 or lower, rendering Haskins a poor two-QB-league play. … Although Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice wound up with the same number of Week 12 touches (11), Guice out-snapped Peterson 24 to 20, ran two more routes, and is Week 13’s top flex option in Washington’s backfield. While the threat of both backs getting negatively scripted out of Sunday’s game is real – the Redskins are ten-point road dogs – Guice’s matchup is enticing against a Panthers defense now missing NT Dontari Poe (quad) in addition to DT Kawann Short (shoulder, I.R.) and hemorrhaging 4.95 yards per carry and a league-high 19 all-purpose TDs to enemy backs. This is the best matchup Guice will draw the rest of the way. … Even as sixth-round rookie possession WR Kelvin Harmon has become mildly interesting with Paul Richardson battling injuries over the past two weeks, the lone Redskins pass catcher worth week-in and week-out fantasy consideration is Terry McLaurin, who leads Washington in targets (22) and Air Yards (323) in Haskins’ three starts. Unfortunately, Haskins’ errant passing has sent McLaurin into boom-bust WR3 range, and his Week 13 matchup is daunting. Combined, teams targeting Panthers outside CBs James Bradberry and Donte Jackson are 62-of-104 passing (59.6%) for 816 yards, four TDs, and six picks.
This is yet another eruption spot for Christian McCaffrey as a home-favorite bellcow with 130-plus total yards in 9-of-11 games and a league-high 16 all-purpose TDs facing a Washington defense serving up 159.6 total yards per game to enemy backs. There’s not much else to say about CMC; he’s fantasy’s No. 1 running back play each week. … Just as he was beginning to be counted out, Kyle Allen turned in his second-best game of the year in last week’s three-point road loss at the Superdome, rallying Carolina back from a second-half deficit only to fall short on K Joey Slye’s missed fourth-quarter chip shot. Allen finished as Week 12’s fantasy QB8 on the heels of seven straight starts at QB15 or worse. The Redskins are a dead-middle 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, while Allen’s much-bigger sample size suggests his season-long streamer appeal is minimal. He’s still a just a two-quarterback-league starter.
Allen’s 2019 target distribution: D.J. Moore 79; CMC 65; Curtis Samuel 62; Greg Olsen 50; Jarius Wright 27. … We discussed way back in Establish The Run’s Draft Kit that Moore projected best as ex-Cowboys OC Norv Turner’s version of high-volume X receiver Michael Irvin and Samuel as deeper-threat, lower-volume “Z” Alvin Harper. That’s especially come to fruition in the last month with Moore out-targeting Samuel 45 to 25 and logging 95-plus yards in all four games. Placing himself firmly on every-week WR1 maps, Moore now has eight-plus targets in seven straight games and shouldn’t stop smashing in another unimposing draw versus Washington. … Samuel has devolved into a touchdown-or-bust WR3/flex option running too many vertical routes in an offense quarterbacked by a non-vertical passer. Samuel’s aDOT is 14.2 over the last four weeks, highest on the team by nearly three yards per target. The good news is Washington has struggled with speed-merchant WRs DeSean Jackson (8/154/2), Stefon Diggs (7/143/0), John Brown (4/76/0), Taylor Gabriel (6/75/3), Devin Smith (3/74/1), Amari Cooper (4/44/1), and DeVante Parker (3/28/1). Samuel runs 4.31. … Olsen should stay locked into season-long lineups against a Redskins defense permitting the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Since Carolina’s Week 7 bye, Olsen ranks fourth in targets (40), fourth in Air Yards (270), and first in routes run (195) among tight ends. Olsen is also a screaming positive-TD-regression candidate without a score since Week 3.
Score Prediction: Panthers 27, Redskins 13