Last updated: December 3rd at 8:30am ET
Team Totals: Titans 25.5, Raiders 22.5
Ryan Tannehill deserves to be one of Week 14’s most-popular streamers and DFS plays against the fast-plummeting Raiders, who’ve supported high quarterback floors by permitting top-15 fantasy results to 8 of their last 11 signal callers faced and conceded upside weeks with six top-six QB1 scores surrendered during that span. Tannehill has tallied top-12 fantasy outcomes in 5-of-6 starts, and this is arguably his best matchup to date since only the Bucs and Cardinals are allowing more quarterback fantasy points than Oakland. … The late-season Derrick Henry narrative continues to crush with touches/yardage/TD counts of 29/166/1 > 20/175/2 > 25/191/2 > 16/99/1 > 17/106/0 > 22/92/1 > 34/171/2 > 17/238/4 over Henry’s last eight November and December games. Enemy backs have tagged the Raiders for 109/459/4 (4.21 YPC) rushing over Oakland’s last five games and the NFL’s sixth-most receiving yards (593) over the course of the year. Henry is a shoo-in RB1 in a game the Titans should control and are projected to win.
Tannehill’s 2019 target distribution: A.J. Brown 33; Corey Davis 27; Adam Humphries and Jonnu Smith 24; Anthony Firkser 16; Dion Lewis 12; Henry and Tajae Sharpe 11. … The ongoing obstacle for Titans pass catchers is low volume in a Henry-based offense; Tannehill has attempted 22 passes or fewer in three straight games. Brown’s stat lines in Tannehill’s six starts are 4/135/1 > 1/17/0 > 4/81/0 > 2/11/1 > 6/64/0 > 3/45/0. Even in a gorgeous draw against the Raiders, Brown is a volatile if still high-upside WR3 play. … Davis has cleared 50 yards twice over his last 16 games, devolving into a longshot WR4 option. … Slot man Humphries has drawn ten targets combined over the last four weeks and scored two TDs in his last 16 games. … Firkser (12) ran nearly as many Week 13 routes as Smith (15) and drew two more targets. The Titans are using Firkser as a situational receiving tight end and Smith as primarily a blocker.
Derek Carr is always a tough fantasy sell as a non-aggressive passer who adds little with his legs, and Week 14 is no different facing a Titans defense permitting the NFL’s eighth-fewest points per game (19.5) and fantasy quarterback results of QB12 or worse in 9-of-12 contests. Carr himself has top-12 fantasy scores in just 3-of-12 starts. He’s a decent-floor, low-ceiling two-quarterback-league play only. … Battling what he termed on social media this week as a “broken” shoulder and consistently removed in passing situations, Josh Jacobs catches the Titans as a continually low-floor, high-ceiling fringe RB1/2. Tennessee yields an even 4.00 yards per carry and the NFL’s second-most receptions per game (6.4) to enemy backs, setting up Jacobs for a suboptimal draw considering his near-nonexistent passing-game usage with four targets gaining 14 yards over Oakland’s last three games. The good news is Jacobs has logged 17-plus touches in eight of his last nine outings, and Titans-Raiders projects as a neutral-script affair where neither team should jump out to an enormous lead to severely alter script. Jacobs is a much more confident play than he was in Weeks 12 and 13’s blowout road losses to the Jets and Chiefs.
Carr’s Week 13 target distribution: Darren Waller 9; Tyrell Williams 4; DeAndre Washington and Zay Jones 3; Jalen Richard, Derek Carrier, and Alec Ingold 2; Keelan Doss and Foster Moreau 1. … Waller’s 7/100/0 explosion on nine targets in Hunter Renfrow’s (rib, lung) first game missed furthered the notion that Waller’s high-end production positively correlates with Renfrow’s lowered or absent usage. Waller runs short routes in the middle of the field – directly in checkdown-machine Carr’s wheelhouse – while Tennessee has permitted the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, including Jack Doyle’s Week 13 eruption (6/73/1). By far, Waller is Week 14’s top Raiders pass-catcher play. … Scoreless since Week 8 with just one 50-plus-yard game during that span, Williams has devolved back into a fringe WR3/flex option. This is a good matchup, though; Zach Pascal (7/109/0) reinforced last week that Tennessee’s biggest secondary deficiency is versus outside receivers, and Williams runs 72% of his routes on the perimeter. … No. 2 WR Jones has 102 scoreless yards on 17 targets (6.0 YPT) since joining Oakland in Week 8. … Doss took over as the Raiders’ post-Renfrow slot receiver in last week’s defeat and drew one target among 22 routes run. Oakland’s passing game is a near-full fade beyond Waller and Williams.
Score Prediction: Titans 27, Raiders 20