The Jets have been brazenly looking to add wide receiver talent this offseason. First, they went after Tyreek Hill, who opted to take his talents to South Beach rather than teaming up with Zach Wilson in New York. Next, it was Deebo Samuel, who has reportedly requested a trade from San Francisco. The Jets have also been tied to DK Metcalf throughout the spring.
They didn’t land an established star, but they got the next best thing on Thursday when they spent a top-10 pick on Ohio State receiver Garrett Wilson. Wilson joins Elijah Moore and Corey Davis on a surprisingly solid wide receiver depth chart. New York is wisely giving Wilson the weapons necessary to succeed in the pros, so the next year or two will be a fair gauge on whether the 2021 second overall pick can make it as an NFL quarterback.
With that being said, let’s get into how Wilson came out in ETR’s initial post-draft projections and investigate how his selection impacts other members of the Jets’ offense.
Projection: 57.1 catches on 96.7 targets for 725.3 yards and 4.0 touchdowns. WR46 on Underdog (97th overall).
- High-level draft capital should ensure Wilson sees plenty of work in Year 1, but he lacks the target ceiling of someone like Drake London considering the Jets’ weaponry. Moore came on incredibly strong before his injury last season — he posted at least six targets in seven straight games, including 31 targets over his last three games when he played at least 80% of snaps — and Davis is getting paid $13 million in 2022. We have Wilson ahead of Davis in the pecking order, but all three Jets wideouts figure to be involved. Factor in Michael Carter and a pair of passable tight ends, and it’s hard to see a smash outcome for Wilson in Year 1 simply based on his target ceiling.
- Plus, Zach Wilson was downright abysmal at times last year. New York is admirably giving him all the weapons he needs to succeed, but that doesn’t actually help the weapons if Wilson simply can’t cut it at the NFL level. That’s not to say that he can’t, but the BYU product will need to take a major step forward in his second campaign for Wilson to truly prosper.
- We actually have Wilson projected for a similar number of targets as London because we have the Jets running more plays and throwing more passes, but London’s target ceiling gives him a significant edge in our rankings. Wilson slots in as a WR4 on Underdog for us.
- Wilson has solid comps in Anthony Amico’s model and ranked fifth overall in the ETR pre-draft rookie rankings. Now solidified as a top-10 draft pick, Wilson appears talented enough to produce right out of the gate. The issue is the other talent for the Jets at wide receiver and a potential lack of talent at the quarterback position.
OTHER JETS PLAYERS
- Davis and Braxton Berrios were impacted the most by the Wilson pick. Both players move down a spot on the depth chart, as we slotted Wilson in as the Jets’ WR2 right away based on the draft capital invested in him. Berrios could prove pesky as a guy who gets spot snaps at times, but his path to volume is much cloudier with three strong options ahead of him. Davis should still play a lot, but Moore and Wilson offer extremely strong competition for looks.
- We are still betting on Moore’s talent and leaving him with a robust target share despite the decision to draft a wide receiver in the top 10. Moore is the WR19 in our rankings after Round 1 of the draft.
- We also lowered both C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin in our rankings for the same reasons regarding target competition that we have already discussed at length. The Jets could also run fewer 2-TE sets now that they have three good options at receiver.