Back on July 7 when it would’ve been Summer League time, teams started to travel to the bubble, and now we’re getting October playoff basketball instead of preseason action. Injuries always happen, but the bubble has been a raging success. We had some fun with lemon pepper BBQ wings for Richaun Holmes and from Magic City, House calls from Danuel, Big Face Coffee, and most importantly no positives on COVID-19 testing. Well, we might be ending on a sour note with the Heat suffering key injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic.
Goran Dragic (foot) has a torn plantar fascia and is listed as doubtful. Per Tim Reynolds of the AP, Dragic is “fighting” to play in Game 2, but obviously a tear usually costs players multiple weeks. On top of that, Bam Adebayo has a neck strain and is doubtful. He was playing through a bit of a shoulder issue since Game 4 and a left shoulder strain was the initial diagnosis, but an MRI revealed it was a new neck issue. Not good. The Lakers did have two minor injuries with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope having a minor chest issue and Rajon Rondo getting poked in the eye. They’re OK.
There’s a lot of ways we have to approach this, and the Bam news makes it even tougher for Miami to get a win. If you missed it, Drew Dinkmeyer, Andrew Wiggins and I did a pod to recap Game 1 and go over the Dragic news. We weren’t sure on Bam, so we didn’t address that in the pod.
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-9), 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Heat 103.8, Lakers 112.8
Injury News: Goran Dragic (foot) is doubtful, Bam Adebayo (neck) is doubtful, Chris Silva is questionable, Gabe Vincent is questionable, Anthony Davis (heel contusion) is probable, LeBron James (groin) is probable, and Danny Green (finger) is probable.
Heat Expected Starters: Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard
Heat Rotation Notes: Tyler Herro started the third for Dragic, Kendrick Nunn played the final 19, Kelly Olynyk played the final 18, Solomon Hill played the final 12.
Lakers Rotation Notes: A little more overlap of Kyle Kuzma and Danny Green in Game 1 after very little in final three of Denver series, Dwight Howard only had two stints as he started each half, Markieff Morris may have closed if not for garbage time, Danny Green may have closed.
Spo Quotes: He talked about the Lakers set the tone for the “majority of the game.” Spo mentioned “force, detail and physicality” again like the Boston series. On AD, he said Miami has 48 hours to come up with a better plan. On corner 3s, he said the Heat are better than they were tonight, and he knows LeBron and AD will break defenses down. He said the Lakers got them out of the things that they do. When asked about Kendrick Nunn, he said the Heat can “use some scoring punch.”
Spo Thursday: He said it’s “all hands on deck” for Game 2. “It’s not like the guys who are potentially sliding into the rotation haven’t played before,” he said. “Our depth has been one of our biggest strengths. We’ll just have to see who’s available and make the adjustments accordingly.”
Vogel Quotes: He said the pick-and-roll coverages got off to a slow start. He mentioned Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo’s defense was a factor. Vogel said the main reason his team won was because of effort by attacking the paint and crashing the boards. When asked about KCP’s offense, he mentioned his defense made a big impact after some talk about hitting treys. Vogel talked about how he knows that Spo is going to change coverages after some big runs. He said AD needed to take advantage of a smaller matchup, and AD is a “jack of all trades” on the defensive end. When asked about Dwight, he said Miami going 2-0 in the first two series was a factor, and he said a big reason was because Miami plays small in their second unit. He said he liked Markieff and AD at the five, and it really came down on playing just one center.
Overall Notes
*The Lakers went 5-of-13 on wide-open treys, including 4-of-8 in the first half (seven open treys with defender 4-6 feet away, three with defender 2-4 feet away, zero very tight attempts). Miami was only 4-of-15 on wide-open treys (3-of-6 in the first half). The Lakers were 13-of-32 on catch-and-shoot treys. Just off hand tracking, nine of the 15 treys were basically a result of great passing from the Lakers.
*The Lakers had a 62.5 eFG% on 12 shots late in the clock (0-4 seconds) after Boston put up 47.1 eFG% in the last series and the Bucks were at 40.7 eFG% two rounds ago.
*Miami was just 5-of-28 on pullup shots for a 19.6 eFG%, including Tyler Herro’s 1-of-10 (nobody else more than three attempts).
*The Lakers were just 1-of-2 at the rim in the first quarter, but went 5-of-8 in the second, 5-of-7 in the third and 5-of-10 in the fourth to get them to 16-of-27 total. They averaged a playoff-best 29 per game in the first three rounds.
*Miami got killed on mid-range (4-of-15, 26.7 eFG%) and above-the-break treys (4-of-24, 25.0 eFG%). Meanwhile, the Lakers went 11-of-22 on above-the-break treys (75 eFG%).
Heat Notes
*The potential loss of Bam and Dragic certainly changes the game for the role players, but it does for the key guys, as well. We have some samples on the Heat with Jimmy while without Bam and Dragic. We’ve seen it for 85 minutes in the playoffs and 156 minutes in the regular season. Jimmy was solid per 36, sitting at a 23/9/7 line in the regular season and a 21/3/5 line in the playoffs. Other players who had noteworthy splits on decent volume were Herro at a 17/8/3 line in 73 playoff minutes and 12/7/1 in 115 regular-season minutes. Nunn in 74 minutes put up an attractive 23/3/3 line per 36 during the regular season. Kelly Olynyk had solid production at 15/7/2 per 36 in 79 minutes. It’s pretty obvious that Jimmy, Herro, Nunn and Olynyk will benefit in the opportunity department.
*Besides Bam impacting the stat sheet, he’s just a massive part of the offensive flow. The Heat run so many screens with Bam and use him in dribble hand-off (DHO) action. Earlier in the Boston series, Spo basically decided he had to just throw his hands up and let Jimmy Butler create offense because nothing was working. That’s likely going to be the case here, so there’s a lot of pressure on Jimmy to score and distribute the ball.
*Another common comment from Spo is talking about Tyler Herro’s skill set on the offensive end. Despite how horrible he was on his 1-of-10 pullups, half of his 18 shots were uncontested, making just 3-of-9. He’s likely going to see a larger guy on him in KCP, and generally Herro has fared well against larger defenders in the playoffs with good numbers on Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward and Jayson Tatum in the last series. Of course, there’s going to be a lot of size out there overall, but still it’s not like the matchup becomes much tougher for him.
*We know Kendrick Nunn is going to be in the rotation now and he was arguably the best Heat player on Wednesday. He made all four of his contested shots and went 4-of-7 on his uncontested ones. He can play on and off the ball, and as mentioned in the top Heat note he’s shown he can produce next to Jimmy without the Bam-Dragic duo. He’s expected to start per credible beat writers, so he should flirt with 30 minutes.
*Kelly Olynyk is not Bam on defense and he’s undoubtedly going to be a major liability against an attacking LeBron and AD. On offense, he’s not Bam either, but he will have some positive impact. The Heat offense is built on switching, so Spo will have to make KO be more of a screener on pick-and-pop plays. He’s also a plus passer for a big man, so he can still be used in DHO action, and the Lakers D will have to respect his long-range J. Unless multiple Heat guards go nuclear, Olynyk will have to thrive for the Heat to stay in this game.
*Nunn and Olynyk will absolutely be the guys picking up most of the minutes, but Andre Iguodala, Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder will all have to be more involved. Iggy can be a secondary ball-handler to allow Nunn a wider variety of scoring opportunities. Robinson’s floor spacing will be essential to open up the offense, and Spo will likely have him come off a lot of screens or on hand offs. Crowder may also have to set more screens in actions to help offset Bam, giving him a much higher offensive upside.
*We should also see some Meyers Leonard, but we probably shouldn’t see much double-big lineups. Over the course of the entire season, Leonard and Olynyk played just four minutes together.
Lakers Notes
*LeBron James had 21 potential assists (nine converted), which is up from 17 in his previous 15 playoff games. He wasn’t doing too much drive-and-kick action in the win with just six passes out of his 14 drives (two assists), and most of his dimes were just making the right play to find a weak spot in the defense. As a scorer, LeBron scored seven points on his 14 drives, and the Heat left him open a whole bunch with 6-of-11 uncontested shots going in. Without Bam down low, LeBron should really be looking to attack now that there’s blood in the water.
*Anthony Davis just smashed on the Heat and he did it in basically an ideal way. He was assisted on 81.8% of his makes, he had 17.6% of his points come in the fast break, he had 47.1% of his points in the paint, and he made all 10 of his free throws. Vogel mentioned AD is so hard to cover because he can do so many different things. Jae Crowder actually fared well in the matchup data against AD, keeping him to 2-of-7 from the field (four free throws) in 17.6 partial possessions.The Heat brought a lot of help with Bam and others, so obviously the help won’t be as good. Plus, the reason why he smashed was because he had so many great shots, making 7-of-11 uncontested shots despite just 1-of-3 on the mid-range shots. The Heat missing Bam helps LeBron a bit more, but AD is still a great bet to crush.
*Finals Danny Green is here. He made three of his eight catch-and-shoot attempts in Game 1, but actually two of them were tightly contested and he made both (1-of-6 on open treys). In other words, the Heat actually defended him pretty well and he still had a great game.
*Rajon Rondo wasn’t really defended in Game 1 with six of seven of his shots coming uncontested. He was just 1-of-5 on treys, but he’s still at 41.2% from deep in the playoffs and he should continue to get shots. The Heat second unit defense likely won’t be as good with so many new pieces out there, and Rondo should be able to exploit them. Vogel clearly trusts Rondo to help initiate offense when LeBron is on the bench.
*Dwight Howard was getting roasted in the first quarter with so much Bam action, but he won’t have to worry about that now. We can probably assume Vogel is still only going to want to use one big, but not having to worry about Bam in the second and fourth quarters could give him a second or third stint after not getting it in Game 1.
Matchup Helps: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler
Matchup Hurts: JaVale McGee, Solomon Hill, Derrick Jones Jr.
